I Was Wrong About Joey Bosa

Three simple words: “I was wrong”.

It seems so short, so easy, that anyone should be able to take those words and use them. They are a renewable resource, too, so it’s not like one can use them a finite number of times. No, admitting fault is free and easy and gets you such a long way with people. And, yet, we have a fear of those words — especially in the fantasy football prognostication industry — that is worse than death, worse than the Boogeyman, worse than the Fear Of Missing Out.

I have to offer a mea culpa today myself: I was one of the loudest voices over the last year pounding the table against the draft selection of edge rusher Joey Bosa. And I was wrong.

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I thought he was overhyped due to big production at Ohio State that didn’t translate all the time on tape. I thought he was selfish for holding out when the San Diego Chargers selected him and went hardline in negotiations, and that that indicated poor work ethic. But you know what? I was wrong.

The Chargers were glad I was wrong, and I’m sure those of you who ignored me and selected him in your rookie drafts agree with them.

So, I want to take the time today to highlight just how wrong I was, and really herald the historic nature of San Diego Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa’s rookie season and bright future in the NFL.

Where I Went Wrong

I have never been on record as saying that Joey Bosa was bad, or could never be a very good NFL player, for what it’s worth. The exact wording I used in my writeup for numberFire was: “All in all, Bosa’s high ceiling should ensure that he goes early on Draft Day…. but his body is not suited for his current play style.”

Clocking in at the NFL Combine as a sturdy 6’5”, 270-pounds, I was worried about Bosa being one of the smaller 3-4 defensive ends in the league, coupled with the fact that his explosion was lacking for a top-tier pass-rushing end. According to MockDraftable, in fact, his closest physical comparisons before the draft were fellow unexplosive edge-setting ends Jack Crawford, Preston Smith, and Jeremy Thompson. What I saw on tape, though, was a propensity to mentally check out in the run game. The athleticism to dominate the run, but the mentality to excel in the pass-rush; this was my conundrum.

Turns out it wasn’t a concern at all.

What He’s Done So Far

Aside from the standoff with Chargers’ management to begin his career (which many have reported was more due to the team’s reported refusal to give reasonable guarantees), and a brief injury to inauspiciously begin the season, Joey Bosa has done nothing but dazzle since making his NFL debut.

The Ohio State product put on an extra 10 pounds of muscle in his pre-season conditioning, and by all accounts worked his tail off in a solo regimen since he missed OTA’s due to the holdout. This additional weight doesn’t appear to have diminished his burst at all, as he came out in his first game (against a really good Oakland Raiders offensive line, mind you) and dropped five total tackles, three of them stuffs and two sacks.

In fact, since 1999, only Carlos Hall in 2002 had more sacks (3) in their first career game, and only one other player has as many multiple sack games in their rookie year — DeForest Buckner of the San Francisco 49ers. Only Hall, Buckner, Brian Robison, Dante Fowler, and Ryan Delaire had at least two sacks and five total tackles in that span as well.

This performance was good for 21.5 fantasy points in balanced IDP scoring (sacks/stuffs to tackles a 3-to-1 points ratio), one of the best game performances of the year by any defensive lineman. In all, Bosa has produced at least five fantasy points in six of the eight games he’s played this year, and has earned at least a tackle assist in each outing. This is honestly the best-case scenario for any concerns about his inconsistency: that his floor is fine and his ceiling is insanely good, rather than my fears that he would have a good-not-great ceiling and a horrible floor.

The table below shows Bosa’s ranks among the 65 defensive ends to play at least 30 snaps per game this season in a few production categories.

Despite missing a month of action, Bosa ranks in the top third of qualifying players in overall fantasy points for 2016, and on a per-snap basis has been nearly as good a pass-rusher as the likes of Danielle Hunter — and better than Khalil Mack and J.J. Watt.

What He Can Do Next

When highlight plays like the one below occur on a nearly biweekly basis for a player, who’s to say what their ceiling is?

If we prorate Bosa’s per-game production to a full 16 games, he would have had a rookie campaign with 43 total tackles (27 solos, 16 assists), 17 stuffs, 10.5 sacks, and 22.5 quarterback hits.

I plugged in those numbers into Pro Football Reference to see which other edge rushers and defensive linemen had had similar rookie seasons to Bosa, and what we can therefore expect from him. Only 19 other players since 1985 came up in our results, including three Hall of Famers in Derrick Thomas, Reggie White, and Charles Haley. Also, among these players is a collective 72 Pro Bowl appearances, Whew.

The table below shows the average production for these players both over the course of a career and on a per-season basis. What might we be able to look forward to with Bosa, if he breaks like his peers?

A player with around 45 total tackles and 8 sacks annually would be a godsend for IDP fantasy football owners, if Bosa can pan out this way. That would give him a similar career average production to the likes of Mario Williams and Osi Umenyiora, two great pass-rushers in their heydays. As for his legacy, the average we came out to in Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value rating put his career around 88.4 AV after 10.5 years, which would slot him right next to Williams and Stubblefield. Heck, the player he’s most compared to — J.J. Watt — is at 88 AV right now (but he’s only six years into his career).

If he can stay healthy, Bosa should have a great NFL career. He may not be Hall of Fame-worthy, but he should make a huge impact on the league — and IDP fantasy football — for quite a while.

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