Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Cincinnati at Cleveland
The last time these two teams met in week seven, Jeremy Hill put up 168 rushing yards on just nine carries. Since then, he’s had double digit carries in each game and only topped 50 rushing yards twice. I’m not sure if he’ll bounce back here or not, but if he is going to, this would be the time to do it. As with most running backs in starting roles that aren’t excelling, Hill is in danger of losing work to a newly drafted running back in 2017 unless he can show more consistency.
The Browns quarterback carousel continues, as Robert Griffin III is set to return. Can he stay healthy? Who knows, but considering the weapons on this team made Cody Kessler even somewhat relevant, our pal Bob could regain quite a bit of fantasy value if he can manage to stay healthy. Based on his career to date, odds of this seem low. However, the Bengals haven’t been as sharp this year and Griffin could benefit from a good outing here by getting a longer leash.
Chicago at Detroit
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Most players on the Bears offense right now do not project to have a significant role in 2017. One possible exception is Jordan Howard, who blew up for three touchdowns last week. How about we use the last month of the season and use it as a gauge for Howard’s long term potential, because I guarantee that’s precisely what the Bears are doing. If he can keep this going and he locks down a role for 2017, his value should continue moving up.
Tight end Eric Ebron hasn’t lit the world on fire with his play, but he is developing nicely for the Lions. Add in that the team just let go of his biggest threat on the team in Brandon Pettigrew and it looks like his long term value is solidified. His value increase isn’t necessarily tied to this game, but look to see if he stays involved as it will be a good sign following a roster move that was in his favor. His arrow is pointing up.
Minnesota at Jacksonville
To date, Jerick McKinnon hasn’t done much to show me that the Vikings are comfortable moving on from Adrian Peterson after this season, Peterson’s gargantuan contract notwithstanding. Whether Peterson returns or the Vikings are looking to the draft to shore up the position, McKinnon really hasn’t blossomed like we had hoped. This isn’t entirely his fault, as his offensive line isn’t making a ton of room. Still, it is him who could lose value.
Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles continues to not play well. The Vikings have a tough defense, and I expect Bortles to stick to his trend. Jags coach Gus Bradley is on the hot seat, and an ugly loss could get him fired. Add in that Bortles has had a few years to develop and not a lot to show for it, and a potential incoming coach could be devastating for his dynasty value if he is relegated to backup duties. This feels like a game with a lot at stake for the young man.
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
This is kind of cheating, but I don’t really care. I’m tired of saying the same thing about the Steelers each week – Martavis Bryant has his value on the line this week despite not even playing. No second wide receiver has emerged in this offense, despite there being room for one this year with Bryant on the shelf due to suspension. Every week is one week closer to a possible return for Bryant, and I’m sure Ben Roethlisberger would love to have him back.
In the event you haven’t been paying close attention to the Bills (I don’t blame you), LeSean McCoy is an elite fantasy football running back in 2016. For dynasty purposes, that probably means he is in the top six to twelve, depending on who you’re talking to. The key here is that some people still have in towards the bottom of the top twelve, and his value floor could be moving up. His value ceiling won’t, as those in front of him there are entrenched. At any rate, the Steelers are beatable on the ground and Shady is producing like someone who should carve them up.
Houston at Indianapolis
Quarterback Brock Osweiler has not played well this year. The Colts are terrible on defense and have tons of injuries. Even when healthy, the Colts are bad at defending against tight ends. Enter tight end CJ Fiedorowicz, who appears to be solidly the tight end to own in the Texans offense. His value has been climbing all year, and rightfully so, but as we all know it only takes one or two big games for a young tight end to have his value skyrocket (I’m lookin’ at you, Hunter Henry). This could be one of those blow up games.
After faltering as the years wore on behind a lackluster line and careless playstyle, Andrew Luck hit some low moments this season. If last week was any indication, he may really be coming into his prime. Considering he was already a first or second round startup pick just a year or two ago, that’s pretty impressive. His value has definitely fallen, and it also has room to move back up. What can he do against this tough Texans defense lacking some of their stars?
San Diego at Carolina
A Charger I haven’t given enough attention to this year, Tyrell Williams has been producing like someone might have expected him to if Keenan Allen were on the field taking attention away from him. Instead, he’s the clear top target in this offense and still putting up solid fantasy production. I believe he’s carved a role out for himself in 2017 and going forward, and he should continue trending in that direction against a faltering Panthers defense this week.
This year, Cam Newton is slumping and it is hurting everyone around him. Really, all of the Panthers pass catchers have their fantasy value tied to him, and that can be either a bad thing or a really, really good thing. When Cam is on, he is amazing. We need to see him really start to turn it around, or Cam will be moving down from his elite quarterback status. He has the weapons around him to make it happen.
Arizona at Miami
A player that I’ve neglected too often this season, David Johnson has simply already been at his value peak the entire year. Or so I thought. With so many questions surrounding top wide receivers, it’s time to consider Johnson a potential top five dynasty player. He simply shows up every week in the running and passing game and produces. He’s matchup proof and does well even when his team doesn’t. T
A converted wide receiver, the Ryan Tannehill could be coming to a close in the near future. I haven’t been very impressed with him in 2016, a year where he needed to take a step forward or else risk being dead weight on a team due to his contract situation. To be clear, I don’t think he’s terrible, but he isn’t playing to the level of his contract and football teams tend to hate that. Be it via an offseason trade or the draft, I no longer consider Tannehill a safe bet to continue starting after 2016. Look to see if he can turn his play around and right the ship.
Washington at Philadelphia
Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins already has a pretty healthy dynasty value, but he is playing on a one year deal for Washington after betting on himself. So far, so good in terms of his play this year. Heading into the last four weeks of the year, he needs to finish strong to solidify his long term value. I’m not sure that he has a possibility of landing in a better situation for his fantasy value than in Washington, as his skills fit the team well. What I want to see is him do well against a division rival here to make the team want to pay him for a long term extension. If he plays elsewhere, his value could be lower next year.
Those expecting a surging year from Jordan Matthews have probably been disappointed. This week he finds himself in a situation where the majority of the other options on the offense are banged up. This is a crystal clear situation to me, despite heavy investment in wide receivers recently for the Eagles. If Matthews can’t step up when they need him, he could be expendable rather than a building block. For his dynasty value to stay afloat, he needs to show he can be a building block in a spot this week where he’s facing a team that is weak against slot receivers.
Denver at Tennessee
Just two years removed from his career year playing under Gary Kubiak, Justin Forsett is reunited with the coach that made him great after being cut by multiple teams this year. Devontae Booker has not been as exciting as many dynasty owners would have hoped, and this opens a door for Forsett. I don’t know if he has the ability he used to have, but we should find out soon enough. If he can tap into his 2014 self, he could be a playoff winner.
Finally removed from the injury report, DeMarco Murray has been the clear cut lead back all season for the Titans. His career history of workload and injuries could be catching up to him late in the season, as last week rookie Derrick Henry out produced him on far fewer touches. What we are watching in this game is to see if Murray is still the bellcow here or if we are heading into a timeshare late in the season. There is a greater than zero chance that Murray could slump just in time for the fantasy playoffs and leave an opening for a larger role for Henry in 2017.
Late Games
New York (Jets) at San Francisco
Enter the Bryce Petty era for the Jets. Now, what does this do for Brandon Marshall? He is a player nearing the end of his career that may not want to go through another rebuild. He’s also a bit of a prima donna, so if he isn’t going to get a fair share of targets he could turn into a locker room cancer for the team. I only have question marks surrounding him going forward, but for this week the 49ers are not a good defense and he should be able to get open. This should be a good test of if he will produce with Petty under center.
Last week, the 49ers quarterbacks were abysmal. This week, I expect coach Chip Kelly to lean on the running game and short to intermediate passing to help them out. Cue a Carlos Hyde featured role and potential value up if he can do well. I don’t believe the upside is immense in this situation, but Hyde can still prove he is the guy for 2017 if he closes the year out strong.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
While his value has clearly been on the ascent all season, Michael Thomas now gets an opportunity to put another check mark next to something we look for in elite fantasy wide receivers. Banged up all week with a foot injury and only getting a Friday practice in, the question for me is if he can still show up and put up solid fantasy production. Elite fantasy players can produce despite limited practice time and injuries. Can Thomas be that kind of asset? If so, he keeps moving up.
While Doug Martin hasn’t totally failed at any point, he hasn’t excelled in spots where he was expected to. New Orleans is a very soft defensive front for a running back, and he needs to improve his efficiency against easy matchups in order to maintain his stranglehold on backfield touches for the Buccaneers. Word is already out that he will cede more work to Jacquizz Rodgers, and that is a slippery slope to be sliding down.
Atlanta at Los Angeles
Word on narrative street is that Julio Jones may be a decoy if he even suits up. Rams cornerbacks aren’t putting up a real tough fight this year, and Taylor Gabriel is in line to be the number two receiver for the Falcons with Mohamed Sanu out. Add in that Gabriel is producing a ton of fantasy points on relatively few targets and that his target load is projected to explode this week, and we have a guy primed for a big week and a value bump. Of course, he could falter with this opportunity and lose value.
Everyone’s favorite “better five years later than never” guy, Kenny Britt is doing well for himself in 2016. He isn’t as dominant as he once was, with injuries having sapped some of his prowess. Regardless, on a team struggling on offense all he has to do is keep producing. He is a free agent this offseason so he could either lock himself into a role for the Rams or find himself in a better situation in 2017.
Seattle at Green Bay
Fans of the series know that I like watching tough matchups for player evaluation. This week, Thomas Rawls gets to go against a stout Packers rush defense. Making matters interesting, the Packers are weak against the pass, so we have a double whammy for evaluation. We can see how committed Seattle is to the run game despite an easier passing situation. Secondly, we can see how Rawls performs in a tough spot. He’ll need to stave off competition already on the team and in the form of potential draft investment.
A post hype sleeper this year, Davante Adams is rewarding those who stuck with him. If you look at his production this season, he has followed his “down” weeks with big weeks. Last week was a down week. While his value is already high – I’ve seen him recently go in the third round in start up mocks – it still has room to move up if he can do well against tough defenses like the Seahawks.
Sunday Night
Dallas at New York (Giants)
This season, Cole Beasley formed a rapport with Dak Prescott that we did not anticipate and parlayed that into an outstanding season for such an unheralded wide receiver. Now an integral part of the offense, he needs to show up when the team needs him. The Giants offer a good run defense and stout outside cornerbacks, but are weaker in the middle of the field where Beasley does damage. Dallas needs to win this game to prove they are the team to beat in the NFC East this year, and I think he’ll need to be involved to make that happen. Stepping up to the plate when his team needs him will be a nice value increase for him.
Quarterback Eli Manning will always be himself, having a volatile range of outcomes in any given game. Having said that, he’s now the old man among the quarterbacks of the NFC East, and he needs to show he can still lead the team to compete against the young guys, or else the Giants could start to consider heading into a rebuild mode in the next few years. This game itself won’t be a huge indictment of his fantasy value, but it could be a litmus test for his continued longevity in the league.
Monday Night
Baltimore at New England
I’m slowly coming to terms with the fact that the Ravens running backs will torpedo one another’s value for the foreseeable future, so I’ll stop inundating you with writeups about them. Instead, let’s focus on Breshad Perriman this week. He isn’t lighting up the box score with only 353 receiving yards and three touchdowns, but two of those touchdowns have come in recent weeks and his situation is only improving. This was essentially his rookie year after missing almost every single practice in 2015, so if he can come away with a bit of a late season breakout, you should be looking to buy.
Patriots wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell looks to be the player benefitting the most from Rob Gronkowski’s absence. Now playing 80%+ of the snaps and turning his hefty target load into plenty of yards and receptions, he could be a consistent weapon for the Patriots going forward. After seeing the backup quarterbacks on display earlier this season, I don’t have qualms about his long term value post-Brady, so watch his continued breakout and decide if you’re willing to pony up to buy him.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
