Over The Hill: Veteran Linebackers to Trade Before the Fantasy Playoffs

Joe Redemann Posted On December 8, 2016

They say “age before beauty”, and “another year older, another year wiser”. All I know is that this year, I got booted off my parents’ medical insurance when I gained more of that wisdom.

I know 26 is by no means “old” in any sense of the word. I still have to have my ID checked when ordering adult beverages, I just barely am able to rent a car by myself, and if I’m teaching on a day I’ve shaved my facial hair, I’m asked for my hall pass. It still dawned on me, though, that reaching one’s late 20’s is sort of the end of an era: you’re an adult (shudder).

The late 20’s — and more so the dreaded 30’s — also signal the downturn of an NFL player’s career. One study at SoCalledFantasyExperts.com found that the peak performance of defensive players falls on average between ages 25 and 28, depending on position. After that, it’s all downhill.

There are plenty of examples of aging players falling off the tables on our IDP fantasy teams because we didn’t get out early enough on them. Fortunately, if you’re a rebuilding team with aging veterans on your roster, Week 14 (before the fantasy playoffs, and most leagues’ trade deadlines) is the perfect point to sell those players.

Which veteran linebackers should you trade before Father Time catches up to them?

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Method

For the purpose of this piece, we’re only going to look at players turning age-28 or older that you can turn around into prospects or draft picks for your rebuilding team. This article can also be used for contending teams: if you’re fielding an offer to help push you over the top, these may provide some red flags to consider when weighing the future impact of these players.

Lorenzo Alexander, OLB BUF

What a wild and woolly ride it’s been for Buffalo Bills outside linebacker Lorenzo Alexander to get to this point, where he was the NFL’s sack leader through 11 weeks of action this year. Just prior to becoming a wrecking ball playing 70% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps, he played a grand total of 173 snaps over his last three years combined. These stops with the Arizona Cardinals and Oakland Raiders yielded impressive rate results due to the small sample sizes of playing time, but held no sustained success.

Interestingly, though, his last season playing over 300 snaps — 2012 with Washington — saw him post a nigh-identical tackle rate, stuff rate, and quarterback hit rate to this year with Buffalo. What’s leapt up to a five-year high is his 1.93% sack rate, nearly double his appearance with Washington.

Aside from a horribly unsustainable statistical profile, Alexander is going on age-34, and was signed off the street at the outset of the season to provide veteran depth. He was never supposed to start, but first-round rookie Shaq Lawson found himself injured to start the year and Alexander stepped up. It’s a happy accident that Alexander is in the spot he is right now, but his age and situation make him tenuous for the future. Trade away his momentum to a team that needs it, and don’t think twice about it.

Thomas Davis, WLB CAR

The Carolina Panthers have fallen off from their incredible defensive pace over the last few years, but weak-side linebacker Thomas Davis is having a resurgent season, on-pace for over 130 points in the regular season. Prior to Week 13, the veteran linebacker had already accrued 71 combined tackles in 11 games and three interceptions. He’s been a steady factor in the Panthers’ lineup for years, and he’s remained impactful as a fantasy contributor for us even going on age-34.

What’s worrisome about Davis’s statistical trends, however, is that his tackle rate and stuff rate have both been sliding downward steadily over the last five years. Davis had a 13.24% tackle rate in 2012, which has slowly declined to 10.43% in 2016. His stuff rate — one of the more consistent big-play rates for a linebacker — has also dropped from 1.25% from 2012 to 2013, to just half of that. This likely lines up with his aging curve — diminishing speed means one arrives at fewer tackles and fewer stops behind the line.

Again, Davis is just a few years away from retirement at age-34. He’s played at a high level for Carolina for over a decade now and always bounced back, but even injuries have begun to pile up for the lifetime Panther. In addition (while he’s playing strong-side linebacker right now), the Panthers have already drafted Davis’s replacement in Shaq Thompson, another smaller-but-fast safety/linebacker hybrid with major coverage skills. Maybe he won’t fall off the table tomorrow, but Thomas Davis is a player to get out in front on while his value is high.

Derrick Johnson, ILB KC

Each of our first three linebackers is age-34 or older, but the Kansas City Chiefs’ Derrick Johnson is one that concerns me greatly. Not only is he well into the twilight of his NFL career, Johnson has had a serious run-in with the “injury fairy” over the last few seasons, losing his entire 2014 season to an Achilles’ tear. Still, the aging Johnson has recovered from that injury and returned to a strong level of play in the NFL. I just think you’ll want to trade him before his value diminishes.

Almost all of Johnson’s IDP value is made up of tackle numbers. From 2010 to 2012, Johnson averaged 125 tackles and 9 stuffs per season. He is a downhill thumper, through and through. So, when we see that his production in the tackle rate department dropped from 12.88% in 2012 to 10.70% in 2016, this should be cause for concern. His stuff rate has taken a slight decrease as well over this span, but the primary thing to note on the chart below is that as his tackle rate slips, his whole production rate drops.

Johnson doesn’t have any direct backups who are threatening his job, but there is a ton of linebacker depth in Kansas City, from fourth-rounder Ramik Wilson, to fifth-rounder D.J. Alexander, to coverage linebacker Justin March. The Chiefs could invest an early pick on an inside linebacker in the 2017 NFL Draft, but they won’t even need to do that in order for Johnson to continue to lose enough per-snap impact to be rotated more in the coming years. Johnson is a hard sell here.

Paul Posluszny, MLB JAX

The Jacksonville Jaguars won’t admit what we can all see on tape: middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is past his prime when it comes to being a three-down NFL linebacker. The 32-year old Poz has been losing his coverage skills for a while now, and despite his active status as an every-down linebacker he is starting to see his snaps-per-game average drop from 70 over the previous four years to 65 in 2016. It’s not a ton, but it’s a sign of the times and could increase further.

Here’s the thing: Poz’s fantasy production has plateaued around 0.146 fantasy points per snap over the last four years. This may seem sustainable, but the makeup of his production is not. His tackle rate has plummeted from 15.50% in 2013 to 12.82% this season, while his passes defensed rate is a meager 0.14%. This depicts his almost total lack of big-play or coverage production, although his average 11 stuffs over the past two seasons are about 7 more per year than the previous three seasons. Poz’s floor of production is eroding, and his sustained impact is untenable.

Plus, his replacement is already on the team. Superstar rookie Myles Jack was thought to have a chance to supplant Posluszny as a three-down linebacker earlier this season, and that should happen sooner rather than later. The writing is on the wall for Posluszny in fantasy football, and you need to read it before it’s too late.