Tuesday Transactions – The Playoff Push

Eric Hardter Posted On November 29, 2016

With the start of the canonical fantasy playoffs following this next week’s slate of games, trades and pickups close down in the majority of leagues in the coming days (if they haven’t already). As such, this will be the last Tuesday Transactions until the 2017 regular season begins. Given the totality of the above, this week’s installment will be slightly different, focusing on moves both contending and rebuilding teams can make to either aid in the playoff push or build for the future. Sure, the season might be coming to a close, but that doesn’t mean you can’t adjust your roster and leave a lasting impact in doing so.

As a bit of a change up, I’m going to incorporate the research from a pair of recent strategy articles I wrote, with the first regarding ADP fluctuations and the second dealing with dynasty value relative to fantasy value. The reasoning here is simple – both contenders and rebuilders should be buying players with a likelihood of holding their value. Conversely, if there are any “land mines” we can identify as strong sells, it behooves us to try and rid ourselves of those players.

One last time, in the interest of transparency here were my week ten suggestions:

Buy Low: Breshad Perriman/Rob Kelley/Kenny Britt

Sell High: Ryan Mathews/James Starks/Cameron Brate

Buy High: Doug Baldwin/CJ Prosise/Stefon Diggs

Sell Low: Jerick McKinnon/Travis Kelce/Coby Fleener

Perriman was goose-egged versus Dallas, but again found the end zone (1-14-1) in a win over the Bengals. Kelley beasted against the Packers (24-137-3) but busted versus the Cowboys (14-37-0, 2-5-0). Britt remained relatively consistent (5-43-0, 5-52-1) even with Jared Goff under center.

Mathews shockingly got hurt and will miss a few weeks. Starks couldn’t find any running room against Washington but made hay through the air (9-25-0, 5-46-1). Brate has been held below 70 total yards over the past two weeks.

Baldwin racked up 11 catches for 138 yards and earned a rare passing touchdown over the last two weeks. Prosise (4-76-1, 2-5-0) had a tremendous week 11 before getting hurt, and Diggs (6-37-0) got nicked up and missed week 12 as well.

McKinnon was held to 116 scoreless, total yards over the past two weeks. Kelce snapped out of his mediocrity, posting 100+ yards in back to back games. Fleener could only accrue 66 receiving yards, but at least managed to get into the end zone in week 11.

With that said, let’s take a peek towards the end of the fantasy regular season!

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Moves for Contenders

1. Buy Michael Crabtree, Doug Baldwin, and Emmanuel Sanders – Not only will this trio produce like WR2s or better, they likely won’t lose any appreciable value between now and next year. To wit, Crabtree has gained over two rounds in ADP value since August, Baldwin has moved up a third of a round, and Sanders has gained nearly two full rounds. Yet all of them have a price tag of a late fourth round pick or less. Regardless, that’s still better than buying veterans who we know will depreciate in value, a la Larry Fitzgerald.

2. Sell Devin Funchess, Latavius Murray, Leonte Carroo and Phillip Dorsett – This quartet of players all had decent value in August, but all fell out of the top 100 players in the November ADP. It’s not that they’re bad players, it’s just that the potential hasn’t really been realized. With that said, each player has a bit of name recognition, and rebuilding squads might want to buy them as “reclamation projects” as they craft their young rosters. While this won’t apply in every scenario, often times rebuilders are happy merely acquiring young assets, without honestly considering that they’re not buying anything more than potential.

3. Make Equivalent Flips – For example, even though a player like Demaryius Thomas is outscoring a guy like Donte Moncrief over the course of the season, the two had similar August ADP values. In fact, DT has actually fallen nearly a full round, while the injured Moncrief only fell a couple of slots. This would be the rare “contender trading with another contender” type of move, but your trade partner might value the stability over the touchdown-dependent Moncrief, but there’s a good chance that when Andrew Luck returns Moncrief will come close to DT’s production, while increasing in value over the off-season as well.

4. Buy Kenneth Dixon and Theo Riddick – Both are starting to take hold of their respective backfields, and the dynasty masses have taken notice. Neither was a Top 100 player in August, but both now are in November. However, once again, I don’t believe either is at peak value. I’m not actually a huge Dixon fan, but understand I’m in the minority here – he could be both scoring points as your RB3 while also accruing dynasty value. I do like Riddick, and the Lions obviously do too as evidenced by his new contract. But once again, even though his ADP has been increasing, there’s a window to buy cheaply at the “cost” of a seventh round startup pick.

Moves for Rebuilders

1. Don’t Feel Like You “Have” to “Buy Value” – Let’s take a look at some popular 2016 breakout prospects. Kevin White fell nearly three full rounds since August. Laquon Treadwell fell two rounds. Michael Floyd fell nearly five full rounds, and Tyler Lockett three. Dorial Green-Beckham dropped 40 spots. Even Devante Parker fell a round. I mentioned about reclamation project players above, and at least to some extent these are the types of guys who fit the bill. The operative message is this: just because young players were popular before doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily stay that way. Not everyone is Teflon.

2. Take Advantage of Transient Value – Marvin Jones jumped 30 spots, but based on recent play that likely won’t hold. Jay Ajayi bounded up over 50 slots. Devontae Booker now resides just outside of the fifth round. This isn’t to say that these are bad players, but more that the market likely overcorrected itself after owners felt they undervalued the trio above. Most dynasty owners are sharp and will pick up on this, but others might truly believe in the value bump. I’d sell on that chance.

3. The Times, They Are A Changin’ – Dez Bryant is still on the periphery of the first round, and Julio Jones and Antonio Brown are squarely in the middle of it. While I don’t actually agree with this type of value transfer, the fact of the matter is that other owners do. If you can sell these “aging” players for some of their younger counterparts like Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, or Keenan Allen (players who haven’t lost much value, if any, despite getting hurt or not playing consistently) and some change, you’ll likely be increasing the value of your roster. Again, in all likelihood the members of the “old guard” are still going to contain immense value in the off-season and at this point next year, but it sure does seem like the tides are turning towards the talented youngsters.

4. Buy the Right Rookies (Duh!) – It’s that simple, right? Obviously not, but once again the masses have clearly spoken. Corey Coleman, Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas (likely even more pricey now), Derrick Henry, and Will Fuller have all gained a ton of value. To a large extent it’s justified (Henry and Fuller might be a little overpriced right now), as each of the quintet above have flashed, and all were either first or second round NFL picks. But apart from Thomas, none are likely going to perform as starters for strong contending squads. I know I’m not reinventing the wheel, but I absolutely think it makes sense to check if your feelings about these freshmen align with those of the dynasty masses.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.