Dynasty Roster Construction 101
Building a year in, year out dynasty is one of the toughest things you can do in the fantasy football realm. It’s not easy and it takes hard work, dedication, and a ton of luck. Let this be a roadmap and a reminder on how to build a true dynasty. Three key aspects are listed here in ascending order, and each builds on the previous while they all tie into one another. A strong reminder that there is no secret sauce, no perfect plan, and everything needs to be looked at through the lens of your league. We will stick to high level ideas and hopefully keep it to something you can apply every year to every team.
- Asset generation
- Value retention
- Risk tolerance
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Asset Generation
Asset generation is the base of dynasty roster construction and it ties into the concept that dynasty leagues can be looked at like a stock market. There are a ton of great articles that talk about this (this one from Brian Malone digs in a little deeper). We however, want to look at in terms of flexibility. The more assets you have, the more moves you can make. A team full of high value players and picks will have an easier time gaining more high value players and picks. Thus, the question remains, do we generate these assets? By putting in the work during rookie drafts and working the trade market.
Rookie drafts are more than just looking up the rookie ADP and making your picks, it’s about doing the leg work to turn what picks you do have into assets which will increase in value over time. Situation is a fluid thing in the NFL, and it’s something which is often hard to predict. Talent, on the other hand will generally stay the same or work on a linear path. There are of course exceptions to this and they are plenty, but in a game which has a strong component of luck involved, taking the sure talent is often the right choice. Not all ADP reflect this mindset, and there is often a sense of group think which pushes different players to different spots. Doing your own research including watching tape, following the combine, and looking into the advanced stats are key to making the picks that will generate the best assets. The work of others is also key in making the right selections in draft as there are those who have a special eye for this position or that, have a great methodology for this type of player or that, or maybe have the insight that others do not. Combining your work and others can give you a clearer picture of who you want to select to generate the best asset and build a team which you are proud of.
Once you have the appreciating assets on your roster, what do you do with them? Yes, the goal at the end of the day is to win games, but sometimes that needs to be delayed to truly build a dynasty. Can you get lucky and build a juggernaut from year one? Of course, but it’s less likely in a competitive, high level league. Knowing when to sell is something that can’t be taught in an article, or from a follow on twitter, it takes experience and it’s a risky business. There is one lesson which can be passed on here however. There is a time in every player’s career where their value is at its absolute peak, and identifying this point and selling at that time is how you can turn one great asset into two or three, or even more. Of course, this isn’t a perfect science because we don’t know what the future will hold, and many players on the decline in value have been able to turn around value for their owners, if only in a short window. Finding this point in time is a rare skill, but taking a look at the player’s entire picture can help. Looking at their situation, contract, age, and surrounding team is a good way to find their peak value, or find if their value may increase.
Value Retention
Retaining value relates to two prime aspects of dynasty fantasy football – knowing when to sell or buy an asset, and keeping your future picks. While we all want to believe that our team is the de-facto champion garnering the last pick in the rookie draft, while that’s the aim of this guide, it’s important to keep yourself flexible. Holding on to that first for as long as possible is a must. Rookie picks gain value the closer the rookie draft becomes, even if you don’t fancy yourself a strong drafter, someone is going to want it very badly when it’s on the clock. Not giving this pick up gives you option to sell it and it keeps your destiny in your hands. If things don’t go as planned or the dark specter of injuries shows up, you still control your own future. I’m not against using it to gain a push into the playoffs, but it’s a last-ditch choice for me. That being said of course, selling off later picks knowing you can use the assets you’ve generated to buy more later, for instance, if there’s a rookie you like that’s falling during the draft. Early rebuilders will often take less value for them in the beginning of the year. Strong word of caution – if you are rebuilding, that first is your life force, it’s likely your strongest asset and as we’ve learned assets beget assets.
Repeating the following manta will put you on the path to dynasty roster success: “Buy Low; Sell High”. A mantra likely borrowed from the stock market, it is imperative to retaining value. Selling high can be a deadly double-edged sword; selling too early stings deep, while waiting too long can leave value on the table or wipe it out completely. The reverse is true for buying low, sometimes a player’s value can go even lower and cutting is necessary may be the final move. This idea ties strongly into asset generation, if you can sell high on an asset at its peak and buy assets that still have room to grow you are not only retaining overall value, but increasing the value of your roster as a whole. A high value roster not only signifies a contender, but it also gives you room to work to increase your value. Even a net loss trade impacts your future less, when you have plenty of other assets to buoy a bad trade or risky move that didn’t pay off.
Risk Tolerance
Risk tolerance can be a personal choice and there is no “best way”, but it’s a key component of making a long term contending roster. There will always be players who are like a grenade, just waiting for their value to explode, but that same player could implode as well. Keeping the number of risky plays within your personal tolerance is a great way to build a strong dynasty roster that you will feel good about. This ties strongly into asset generation, however having a risky play pan out is one of the best things you can do in dynasty as long as you aren’t relying entirely on make-or-break events to occur. Having a roster full of risk is most likely not going to work out. Striking a good balance of steady players and risky ones leads to appreciating assets while keeping a strong core. This is often known as “insulating risk” (another stock market term) by padding risky players with safer ones, you allow yourself to mitigate the risk if they don’t pan out. This is a personal choice however and some owners will feel comfortable with more risk than others, and this is a good thing to keep in mind when making trades. Owning risky players is a game of knowing when to sell them or when to get out from under a depreciating asset. Often the only thing you can do is wait.
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