FanDuel Bargains: Week 12

Mike Valverde

Editor’s Note: We’re going to be bringing you an unprecedented amount of content this year during the season, mostly dynasty related. However, seeing the explosion of DFS games, we’ll also be ramping up our Daily coverage, similar to last season. Even if you don’t play in DFS games, these articles can help you in making lineup decisions or judge the current value of your dynasty assets.

Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.

Keep in mind that these suggestions are for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments with more than 50 participants where players are looking for bargains to fill out their lineups after already inserting their “studs” for the week. Many of them are risky plays and shouldn’t necessarily reflect good choices for head-to-head or 50/50 games. Rankings courtesy of ESPN.

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith, QB KCC ($6,500)

Last week, Alex Smith completed 24 of 31 passes for 261 yards, with one touchdown and a pick in Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay. He added ten yards and a touchdown on two carries. Even though Smith’s accuracy (77.4) was extremely consistent, his interception in Tampa Bay’s end zone led to the Buccaneers lone touchdown and made the difference in the game.

He will face a much stricter defense in the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have stifled the quarterback all season as they have only allowed nine touchdowns on the season. Denver also has given up just 11.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have locked down the passing game as they are giving up just 194.3 yards per game in the air.

  • Alex Smith is averaging 14.5 FanDuel points per game.
  • The implied points for the Chiefs is 18
  • The Denver Broncos are favorites (3.5) at home and the over/under is 39.5

Consider:

Brock Osweiler, QB HOU ($6,300)

Brock Osweiler completed 26 of 39 passes for 243 yards, one touchdown, and one interception during Monday’s loss to the Raiders. It was the most completions he threw against a team this season and he played better than his norm. He had a second touchdown that was incorrectly ruled by the referees as being out of bounds.

This week he will face another weak defense in the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers give up 16.6 fantasy points per game and have allowed 16 touchdowns in the air. As for an overall defense, they rank 27th against the pass. They give up 274.5 yards per game in the air.

He is also familiar with the Chargers defense, due to his playing time in Denver. “I know what (defensive coordinator) Coach (John) Pagano wants to do schematically. Obviously, I’m expecting some game-plan adjustments that maybe I haven’t seen before, but certainly I feel like San Diego is more of a common opponent in my eyes.”

  • Brock Osweiler is averaging 12.7 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied points for the Texans is 23 points
  • The San Diego Chargers are favorites (1.0) on the road and the over/under is 46

Running Backs

Jeremy Hill, RB CIN ($5,900)

Last week against the Buffalo Bills, Jeremy Hill rushed 16 times for 62 yards, and caught both of his targets for one more in Sunday’s 16-12 loss. Hill will now be taking over the full-time role. Gio Bernard tore his ACL, leaving the third-year pro to be the bell cow.

Hill will at least get 15 carries, and he has gotten that many in three consecutive games, after eclipsing that mark only twice in the first seven games. With that, he has a great price of just $5,900. Now that Bernard will be out, Hill will get more looks in the passing game as well.

He will face the Baltimore Ravens this week, and that means bad news. The Ravens have shut down running offense all season. Ravens didn’t allow Ezekiel Elliot to gain 100 yards for example. They are ranked first overall against the run (76 yards per game). They have also allowed just 11.1 fantasy points per game.

  • Jeremy Hill is averaging 10.9 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied points for the Bengals is 18
  • The Baltimore Ravens are favorites (4.5) at home and the over/under is 40.5

Chris Ivory, RB JAC ($5,900)

Chris Ivory played well in the passing game last week, but was nearly invisible running the ball. He rushed 17 times for 39 yards, and added six catches for 75 yards on six targets.  Ivory took over the primary running back job after T.J. Yeldon exited with an ankle injury. More than likely Ivory will be the main ball carrier next week against Buffalo as Yeldon should be out.

The Bills are 20th against the rush, allowing 107.3 yards per game. They are also giving up 15.9 fantasy points per game and have allowed ten touchdowns to opposing running backs. They gave up 62 yards last week to Jeremy Hill who is a similar runner.

  • Chris Ivory is averaging 6.3 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied points for the Jaguars is 19
  • The Buffalo Bills are favorites (7.5) at home and the over/under is 45

Consider:

Rashad Jennings, NYG ($6,600) 

Rashad Jennings last week had 21 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, and caught five passes for 44 more yards against the Chicago Bears. Jennings has taken control over the running back position as he has been an all-around back and has put rookie Paul Perkins in the back seat. He should continue to do so this week against the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns have been awful all-around, but especially against the run. They are 31st against the run allowing nearly 144-yards per game. Cleveland also is 31st in fantasy points, giving the opponent 22.8 points per game. They are also tied for last in allowing touchdowns (13).

  • Rashad Jennings is averaging 10 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied for the Giants is 26 points
  • The New York Giants are favorites (7.0) on the road and the over/under is 44

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman, WR NEP ($6,400)

Rob Gronkowski missing last week’s action had much to do with Julian Edelman and his 17 targets, and if Gronkowski is out again this week look for more action going Edelman’s way. Edelman finished with eight receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown in the win against the San Francisco 49ers.

This week they will be playing the New York Jets and are projected to score 26.8 points, second highest this weekend. The Jets are allowing 23.3 fantasy points to receivers and they have given up ten touchdowns on the season. Edelman is not the primary weapon down near the goal line, but he could sneak in a touchdown to go along with six-to-ten receptions. His price and high floor secure at the very minimum a look.

  • Julian Edelman is averaging 9.5 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied points for the Patriots is 27 points
  • The New England Patriots are favorites (7.5) on the road and the over/under is 46

Doug Baldwin, WR SEA ($6,800)

One of the more consistent performers at the wide receiver spot, Doug Baldwin. Last week, he caught four of five targets for 104 yards and threw a touchdown pass to Russell Wilson. Going back to last season, he has at least four receptions in 14 of his 15 games. To go with that he has at least 45 yards in 13 of the 15.

The Seattle Seahawks will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, and their passing defense is weak at best. They are 25th against the pass giving up 267 yards per game. In terms of fantasy points allowed to receivers they are 26th (24.2).

You should like his salary compared to a team that should allow him to get plenty of looks from Wilson. Continue to roll with him, or take-a-look for the first time. Either way he should provide dividends.

  • Doug Baldwin is averaging 13.5 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied points for the Seahawks is 26 points
  • The Seattle Seahawks are favorites (6.0) on the road and the over/under is 45

Michael Crabtree, WR OAK ($6,700)

Michael Crabtree has been producing all season. Crabtree caught two of his six targets for 27 yards against the tough Denver Broncos defense. He has been a big part of the touchdown party over the past six weeks, but has slowed down in the last three. Crabtree is getting comparable targets to Amari Cooper’s in those six contests (7, 6, 16, 11, 4, 7). The Raiders should score at least two touchdowns in the air against the Carolina Panthers, and one should go to Crabtree.

The Panthers passing defense have floundered this season. Through ten games, they have the 26th rated defense against the pass giving up 271.1 yards per game. In fantasy, Carolina is allowing 22.1 points to opposing receivers which is 21st in the NFL.

  • Michael Crabtree is averaging 12.4 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied points for the Raiders is 26
  • The Oakland Raiders are favorites (3.0) on the road and the over/under is 49.5

Consider:

Tyler Boyd, WR CIN ($5,600)

The Cincinnati Bengals are going to be without both A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard this week. Therefore, those targets will go somewhere and I think that Tyler Boyd will be the key recipient. Last week, Boyd caught six of eight targets for 54 yards and a touchdown.

This week the Bengals will face a very tough Baltimore Ravens defense. They are both strong in the run and pass, making it difficult for Cincinnati to create their offense. The Ravens pass defense is ranked seventh in the NFL, giving up 219.1 yards in the air per game.

Also, looking at their fantasy defense, they are giving up points like a sieve. They are 29th in points allowed with 25.1 per game. Baltimore has trouble defending the slot, giving up six catches and 103 yards to Eli Rogers and five catches, 59 yards and a touchdown to Cole Beasley.

  • Tyler Boyd is averaging 5.6 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied points for the Bengals is 18
  • The Baltimore Ravens are favorites (4.5) at home and the over/under is 40.5

Tight Ends

Will Tye, TE NYG ($4,600)

The Cleveland Browns don’t have much in coverage ability and now facing the Giants they will have to not only cover Odell Beckham, but Sterling Shepherd as well. This should give Will Tye ample time to find soft spots in the end zone and get plenty of looks. Tye has gotten increase looks over the last three games and has 20 targets over that time. His value is solid at this price, and has an excellent chance of getting into the end zone.

Tye has played at least 70 percent of the Giants snaps, while Larry Donnell has not played any of the last three games and has gotten nearly seven targets a game over that span.

  • Will Tye is averaging 4.5 FanDuel points per game
  • The implied points for the Giants is 26
  • The New York Giants are favorites (7.0) on the road and the over/under is 44
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