The Player or the Pick? A Look Back

Ryan McDowell

For the past eight weeks, I’ve been polling my Twitter followers in an effort to identify the exact dynasty value of some relevant players for this new series, ‘The Player or the Pick?’ This week, I want to look back at the 25 players who have been matched up against a draft pick with hopes of further clarifying their dynasty value.

Over the past few days, I once again polled my followers on Twitter, asking them about the same set of players, but adjusting the chosen draft pick based on previous results. For example, if the player easily won the initial poll, I simply upped the pick. On the other hand, if the majority preferred the draft pick, that told me to lower the value of the player.

Of the 25 players involved so far, not all got a second treatment of the Player or the Pick exercise. I opted to leave out the most recent trio from last week’s article (Devontae Booker, Jordan Howard and CJ Prosise) as well as running back Christine Michael, whose situation has bene in flux to say the least. Also, any players involved in polls that were already a 50/50 split or close to that, were left off since their value has already been determined. This means Ameer Abdullah (mid-second round pick), Aaron Rodgers (late first round pick), Tom Brady (early second round pick), Melvin Gordon (mid-first round pick) and Jamison Crowder (early second round pick) won’t be included.

Some of the newer polls lent some clarity, while others just left me confused on exactly how the average dynasty owner feels about these specific players.

Here are the results:

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Previous Results:
Diggs- 40%
Early 1st round pick- 60%

The first version of the Stefon Diggs poll was posted soon after he began his hot streak that has essentially lasted all season, barring a couple of games when he was dealing with a minor injury. Diggs has been a target monster and put up major PPR points. I don’t see this changing anytime soon.

Final Verdict: While dynasty owners weren’t willing to part with an early first rounder, they are more than happy to buy Diggs for a mid-range first round pick, even in a deep class. After he’s continued to prove his value, Diggs’s current value might be closer to the original early round pick range.

Previous Results:
Fuller- 42%
Mid-1st round pick- 58%

The original poll for Texans rookie receiver Will Fuller was somewhat close, though the majority still preferred a mid-first round pick over the hot starting receiver. Since that time, Fuller has missed time due to injuries, displayed the poor hands that had many doubting him through the off-season and has seemingly fallen behind fellow rookie Braxton Miller for snaps and targets. Fuller’s value has dropped so much that this new poll for a lesser pick resulted in an even wider margin.

Final Verdict: I don’t think this means you could easily buy Fuller for a second round pick, but I would attempt to do that as virtually no dynasty owners are giving up a first rounder for the struggling receiver.

Previous Results:
Pryor- 59%
Early 2nd round pick- 41%

Browns receiver Terrelle Pryor has been one of the breakout stars of the 2016 season and dynasty players have struggled all season with exactly how to value him. After Pryor easily won the vote against an early second round pick, it seemed there was a good possibility that dynasty owners were willing to spend a first rounder on the 27 year-old. I even found many actual dynasty trades just like that.

Final Verdict: In the end, owners narrowly chose the late first round pick over the Browns starter. This tells me it would in fact take a first rounder to buy Pryor since the early second wasn’t getting the job done. The only way I can envision a future second rounder being good enough would be if the Pryor owner is a complete non-believer and most of those have already sold.

Previous Results:
Coleman- 29%
Late 1st round pick- 71%

Falcons second-year running back Tevin Coleman started the season well, looking like a PPR star, but injuries have slowed him down. After the original poll matching Coleman with a future first rounder was not close at all, I expected a similar result when compared to an early second round pick, especially given Coleman’s recent absence from the Atlanta lineup. Instead, Coleman was the overwhelming choice. This one really surprised me.

Final Verdict: In hindsight, pitting Coleman against any first round pick was too aggressive, but I do think he’s worth taking a shot on for a second rounder. Given his recent cold streak, which is mostly injury related, now might be the idea time to buy.

Previous Results:
Peterson- 61%
Early 3rd round pick- 39%

I posted this initial poll soon after Vikings running back Adrian Peterson suffered a serious knee injury. Choosing whether or not to buy or sell an injured player can be a pivotal call for any dynasty owners. I think the severity of Peterson’s injury, his age and the uncertainty about which team he might play for in 2017 all paint a bad picture when it comes to the future Hall of Famer’s dynasty value.

Final Verdict: I was initially surprised to see Peterson easily overtake an early third round pick. While some think of a pick outside the top 24 as a throwaway, I think it can be used to attain some nice dynasty prospects, especially in the class of 2017. While owners were willing to take a shot on Peterson and his bum knee for a third, a later second was obviously too much to ask, and I would agree. Personally, I’d sell Peterson for a third round pick, though the recent news is somewhat encouraging.

Previous Results:
Allen- 39%
Early 1st round pick- 61%

This might be the poll I got the most feedback on, with many people calling me out over matching Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen against such a low pick. While I agree that very few would be selling a potentially elite young wide receiver for a mid-first round pick, I was just following the results of the original poll, which were quite surprising to me. Dynasty owners hate to pay full price for any player, especially an injured player soon after he’s suffered a serious injury.

Final Verdict: While the majority easily sided with the early pick over Allen, and even larger percentage chose Allen over a mid-first rounder. Considering the small gap between the top five or six players in the class of 2017, this seems odd. Nonetheless, I think it would be nearly impossible to buy Allen for a mid-first. The further we get from his injury, the more his value will increase, just as it did this past year.

Previous Results:
Mariota- 26%
Late 1st round pick- 74%

One of the hottest players in the NFL is Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota and weeks ago, when that hot streak was just beginning, the majority of dynasty owners preferred a late first round pick over the young signal caller. I wasn’t really surprised by this. With the surge of the late round quarterback movement in dynasty leagues, the overall value of the quarterback position has plummeted. It is rare for any rookie quarterback to come off the board in the first round, so dynasty players were hesitant to flip their top 12 pick for any quarterback.

Final Verdict: Over the past few weeks, Mariota has been the top scoring FF quarterback and his value has obviously increased. Pitted against an early second round pick, Mariota was the easy choice. In fact, this might have been a case, as with Diggs and Allen, where I simply repeated the initial poll. If you want to buy high on Mariota, be prepared to give up a first rounder, at least.

Previous Results:
Prescott- 69%
Mid-2nd round pick- 31%

Cowboys rookie quarterback Dak Prescott went undrafted in most dynasty leagues, but his value has been climbing throughout the season. When matched against a mid-second round pick, I was somewhat surprised to see Prescott become the easy choice. So, after viewing the latest result, I’m even more surprised with the majority of my Twitter followers choosing Prescott over the early second round pick.

Final Verdict: Based on these poll results, it seems that Prescott would cost at least a first rounder to acquire, a price I would not be willing to pay. I do think we have to lock him in as a top ten dynasty quarterback going forward.

Previous Results:
Ajayi- 42%
Late 1st round pick- 58%

Here’s another example of how a player’s value can quickly change. Even after his 200-yard outburst, dynasty owners were unwilling to give up a future first round pick for Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi. Since then though, Ajayi has continued his strong play as Miami has shifted to a run heavy offense and veteran Arian Foster opted to retire.

Final Verdict: With the large majority preferring Ajayi to an early second rounder, I would consider selling the Dolphins starter. No, I wouldn’t sell him for an early second, but the gap in this poll suggests a fair asking price would be a first rounder and I’d flip Ajayi for that.

Previous Results:
Gurley- 65%
Early 1st round pick- 35%

We all know about the disappointing season of Rams running back Todd Gurley. He’s simply failed to be the difference maker he showed he could be during his rookie year. The original poll was posted in the midst of Gurley’s troubles and I was shocked by the results. Although Gurley was the easy preference of two-thirds of the people, I did have many reply to the poll, explaining they would easily cash out on Gurley before the Trent Richardson comps kick in.

Final Verdict: I had to go off script a little bit and compare Gurley to a pair of picks after he topped out the single pick process. For most respondents, that wasn’t even close and a pair of first round picks, even if one is late, makes for an easy decision for a large number of my Twitter followers. I suspect if the initial poll was repeated, it would be much closer.

Previous Results:
Thomas- 68%
Mid-1st round pick- 32%

Dynasty owners spent much of the off-season debating which rookie receiver was the best option with the 1.02 rookie pick, behind top ranked rookie Ezekiel Elliott. Would it be Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson or Corey Coleman who would break through into the every week starter range? It turns out, they’ve all disappointed fantasy owners in some way, while former Ohio State receiver Michael Thomas, known by some as “bad Mike Thomas,” has become a star. Thomas was the easy choice over a mid-first round pick, which makes sense given that is essentially what he cost last off-season. Why sell him for the same value, even with a deep 2017 draft class, after he’s already shown he can play at this level?

Final Verdict: Even after he easily prevailed over a mid-first round pick, I expected the large majority to side with a top four first round pick over Thomas. While the pick was favored, it was fairly close. I love Thomas as a dynasty buy right now, but would have a very hard time giving up my chance at a top tier rookie in this 2017 class.

Previous Results:
Crabtree- 33%
Late 1st round pick- 67%

Just as he was a year ago, Oakland receiver Michael Crabtree has been a consistent fantasy producer in the up-tempo Raiders offense. I know some are worried about how to value Crabtree based on his age and his history of disappearing for long stretches. For what it’s worth, we haven’t seen that during his time in Oakland and playing in a young offense surrounded by players like quarterback Derek Carr and wide receiver Amari Cooper seems to have rejuvenated Crabtree. While I have seen dynasty players flip a late first round pick for Crabtree, the majority was not in favor of that move in the original poll.

Final Verdict: Since the beginning of this series, 50/50 split votes have been rare, but that’s what we have here. This tells me that either buying or selling Crabtree for an early second round pick (based on your current team standing) is an ideal move.

Previous Results:
Gronkowski- 72%
Early 1st round pick- 28%

I knew better than to pose one of the league’s most dominating players against a single pick. Dynasty players, even those in love with collecting draft picks and young players, know better than to flip a player in his prime for an unknown rookie. I deservingly got blasted for this original poll. I chose to come back with a pair of picks, as I had with Gurley, and that certainly balanced things out somewhat. Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski was still favored, as he should be, but the margin was close.

Final Verdict: If you are looking to buy Gronkowski in your league, and you pretty much always should be, the pair of first rounders is a good starting point. Adding a tight end prospect or a later draft pick might be enough to close the gap, based on the new poll.

Previous Results:
Graham- 60%
Early 2nd round pick- 40%

Coming off a huge game in primetime, I compared comeback star tight end Jimmy Graham to an early second round pick and the majority of people sided with the immediate production of Graham, already over 30 years old and coming off a major injury. The next step was to match him against a higher pick, in this case, a late first rounder. I don’t think many tight ends are worth a first round pick and it would be rare for me to consider using a pick that early on a rookie tight end. It is not surprising to see the large portion of respondents take the top 12 pick versus the current top 12 tight end.

Final Verdict: I was very wrong on Graham and have been amazed by him comeback and return to such a high level of weekly performance. With that said, I can’t bring myself to buy high on an older player. I’d be hesitant to even use an early second round pick to acquire Graham unless he offer s huge immediate upgrade to my contending lineup.

Previous Results:
Henry- 66%
Early 2nd round pick- 34%

I was surprised when so many respondents chose the rookie tight end Hunter Henry over an early second round pick. After dynasty owners were burned by using an early pick on a rookie tight end, it seems that we had finally transitioned into the idea that young tight ends rarely offer immediate production. Of course, Henry has bucked that trend, but the tight end class of 2017 is exceptionally strong and there is a chance that even the best of the group (OJ Howard or Evan Engram) could fall to the early second round range. As I expected, the large majority prefer a first round pick, even a late one, over Henry.

Final Verdict: It seems that Henry is one of many players who is worth more than a second round pick, but less than a first. This means to acquire him, you’d likely have to package an additional pick or a player. This also reminds me of the wide value difference there is between a first round pick and a second, although when we are talking the end of one round and the beginning of another, the gap should not really exist.

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ryan mcdowell