So, you lucked into a good record with a team you thought was a year away from contention. Or you built a good team, secured a playoff spot, and now are looking at A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski, and C.J. Prosise-sized holes in your lineup. That stinks, but it’s time to finish your shower cry and get to work.
About this time in 2015, I wrote an article showing you how to maximize your title odds with a bad team. Not only was it a clever idea*, there were some pretty good calls in there. So I figured I’d update it for 2016 and help a few more people win titles they don’t deserve.
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It’s no secret that the best team doesn’t always win. In August 2015, I used results from real dynasty leagues to calculate the average underdog’s odds of taking home the title:
Just by showing up, you give yourself about a one-in-nine chance of winning it all. But it doesn’t take much to improve those odds. You just have to recognize that, relative to the title favorites, your team isn’t that good.
Good teams have it pretty easy. Sure, they might pay attention to matchups, but really they’re just trotting out the same studs that got them a free pass to week 15. Bad teams have to fight for it—and sometimes they have to fight dirty. Here’s how to fight dirty:
Root for Injury
Most of us aren’t really going to root for injury, but you should be putting yourself in a situation to benefit from your opponents’ misfortunes. You know what’s better than watching that jerk with the 11-2 team lose David Johnson just before the playoffs? Watching that jerk with the 11-2 team lose Johnson just before the playoffs and knowing that you have Andre Ellington on your roster. Assemble as large a motley crew as you can: Ellington, Alfred Morris, Robert Turbin, Akeem Hunt. It all depends on the depth of your league. But don’t act indiscriminately: scout the top teams’ starting running backs and pick up the guys who will take over if those guys go down. You’re not looking just to improve your team. You’re looking to improve your team at your opponent’s expense.
If you have deep enough benches that all starting quarterbacks are rostered (and a trade deadline), go after the NFL backup to one of the top team’s quarterbacks—especially if their QB2 is bad or injured. You’re not going to play Landry Jones or Luke McCown, but sticking your opponent with a zero at quarterback makes you suddenly the matchup favorite.
Double Down on Ugly
A good quarterback-receiver combination is volatile, but productive. But let’s be honest, you don’t have a good quarterback-receiver combination. If you did, you wouldn’t have read this far. You’re probably trotting out Kenny Britt as your second wide receiver each week and trying to decide whether to stick with Ryan Tannehill or pick up Scott Tolzien at quarterback. That’s OK. We’ll work with what you have.
When you’re the underdog, volatility is your friend. If you can’t afford high-performing volatility, you have to settle for “is this the week?” volatility. And I have just the pair for you in Philip Rivers and Tyrell Williams. Rivers is a middling QB2 in points-per-game by most scoring systems, and Williams is a high-end WR3. Less than ideal. But Rivers is dirt cheap, and you might be able to get Williams for a second. Plus, the Chargers get Carolina, Oakland, and Cleveland in Weeks 14 to 16. That’s a good stretch of games to get hot. Plus, if your opponent has Melvin Gordon, you get an extra volatility boost in a head-to-head matchup.
If you can’t manage the Rivers-Williams stack, you can use the same concept on a different pair. If things are really dire, maybe try the Brock Osweiler–C.J. Fiedorowicz combination. Osweiler may be on the waiver wire, and Fiedorowicz probably was a few weeks ago. But Houston gets Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati in the fantasy playoffs, and Osweiler has to put up a top-12 performance eventually, right?
Whatever you do, don’t roll out your same old mediocre quarterbacks and receivers. At least get a mediocre quarterback-receiver pairing from the same team, preferably with a decent playoff schedule.
Trade for a Team Defense or Two
OK, before you hate-tweet me (@BrianMaloneFF), remember that you’re here because you’ve acknowledged your team stinks. It’s time to sacrifice your dignity and start shopping for team defenses. Your leaguemates will laugh at you, as they should, but every point matters, and this may be one of the cheapest advantages you can buy.
Aim high. Some of the best defenses—Seattle, Minnesota, Denver—also have really good playoff matchups. You probably won’t be able to get one of these teams from a contender, but if you throw a third round rookie pick at a non-playoff team, they’ll probably snap-accept.
***
So, yeah, your team’s not that good, and you’re probably going to lose. But don’t be afraid to lose ugly, because winning ugly is the best chance you have.
*Naturally.
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- Dynasty Capsule: Miami Dolphins - January 26, 2019
- Dynasty Capsule: Buffalo Bills - January 21, 2019
- Dynasty Capsule: Carolina Panthers - January 21, 2018
Fantasy Hail Mary!
