2017 Startup Mock Draft: Rounds 5-8
It is hard to believe that week 12 of the NFL season is already underway. Hopefully that means you are right in the thick of the playoff hunt right now, vying for a top seed. Unfortunately, that isn’t always the case. If you’re in enough leagues, you are undoubtedly turning your gaze towards the 2017 season in at least a few of them. In order to help give you some additional perspective on your roster and your trade targets, myself and 11 other writers here at DLF got together to do a 2017 startup mock draft.
For this mock draft, we decided to do 12 rounds, and we did our best to put ourselves into the mindset of what we would do six or so months from now. Due to the issue of not knowing which rookies will actually declare for the NFL draft, we decided to draft rookie draft picks instead of actual 2017 rookies. This way you still have an idea of where these picks are being valued in relationship to the current group of players.
To help give some perspective with the picks, I asked each of the participants to answer three questions once the draft was complete.
- Which of your twelve picks are you happiest about?
- Which of your twelve picks do you wish you could have back and do over?
- Who are three players you would likely target in the later rounds if this draft kept going.
I’ll be mixing their comments in with a little bit of round by round analysis.
In terms of scoring and format, we went with your standard PPR scoring of 1 point per reception for all positions. There were no positional bonuses, and this is not a superflex or 2QB league. On with the show!
If you missed the first four rounds of the mock, take a look here. Here are the middle rounds of our mock draft.
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Round 5 (49-60)
- DaVante Adams, WR GB
- Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
- Andrew Luck, QB IND
- Spencer Ware, RB KC
- Russell Wilson, QB SEA
- LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
- Josh Doctson, WR WAS
- Marvin Jones, WR DET
- Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
- Jordy Nelson, WR GB
- Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN
- Jordan Reed, TE WAS
A few months ago you never would have guessed that Davante Adams would be the second Packer off the board in a startup mock draft, but that is exactly what happened. Of course he had two teammates drafted shortly after him, but it speaks volumes about his ascendance this season. He isn’t the only one flying up draft boards from the looks of it. Ware, Jones, and Coleman were no where near the fifth round a few months ago. There were some mixed feelings about some of those players among our drafters.
Matt felt his selection of Ware was his best of the whole mock. He said, “Like most dynasty owners these days, I generally wait on running back in startups. Getting Andy Reid’s current and future bell cow at 5.04 as my RB1 after taking four straight receivers to open the draft is a dream scenario.” I was personally surprised Ware slipped this far, and had him all queued up as my top player on my pre-draft list. In fact, I almost took him in the fourth round, but Miller was still available.
As for Jones, he started out great this year, but has faded fast over the last few weeks. The next few will determine how we view him heading into 2017. Here is what Adam had to say about his pick, “Taking Marvin Jones in the fifth was a slight misstep looking back. I think I was reaching a bit for a receiver and missed that Laquon Treadwell and Kevin White were still on the board. I think either would have been a better pick here. Jones is alright, but he lacks the killer talent or situation that I tend to go for. Also filling in lineup gaps with older players is much easier later in drafts, so taking youth with upside is always a winner early.”
The fifth round also featured the rest of what most consider the elite tier of quarterbacks in dynasty leagues. The exact order of Newton, Luck, Rodgers, and Wilson is and will continue to be highly debated, but most feel there is a bit of a drop after them. However, some feel there are a few quarterbacks who are starting to bridge that gap.
The last thing to catch my eye in the fifth round were the top two receivers selected in most rookie drafts this year. Neither Treadwell nor Doctson has done much of anything this season. Treadwell can’t see to figure out how to get on the field and Doctson has been plagued by injuries. Their selection at this point puts them between the eighth and ninth rookie picks in the 2017 draft. I would argue that is a few picks too low for them right now, but that is just because I think the hype of the 2017 draft class is a bit too much. Hopefully these two figure it out in 2017, because they have the potential to be great.
Round 6 (61-72)
- Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
- Derrick Henry, RB TEN
- Tom Brady, QB NE
- Kevin White, WR CHI
- Travis Kelce, TE KC
- Tyrell Williams, WR SD
- Greg Olsen, TE CAR
- Doug Martin, RB TB
- Carlos Hyde, RB SF
- Rookie Pick 1.09
- Jordan Howard, RB CHI
- CJ Prosise, RB SEA
The sixth round is where people typically start going in one of two directions. They either start to swing for the fences with high upside players like Henry and White or they pick up aging veterans who are still producing like an elite option like Brady and Olsen. It all depends on how you envision your team and what you did in the first few rounds. Sometimes this means people start to reach just a little bit though to get their guy. Bill took Brady early in the round, but in hindsight he regrets it a bit. Looking back at his pick he said, “He’s a stud, but I probably could have grabbed him one or two rounds later.” The concern here is obviously age. How many years does Brady have left?
Another individual who was second-guessing their sixth round choice was Mr. McDowell and his selection of Prosise to end the round. “Knowing what we know now, my pick of Seattle rookie running back CJ Prosise in the late sixth round was not the best call. At the time of the draft, he had just become the team’s starter and the Seahawks had dumped Christine Michael. Now, Prosise has suffered yet another injury. While those are not always easy to predict, this is his fourth injury since being drafted, having missed OTAs, part of training camp and much of the early season.”
Earlier I mentioned that the gap between the elite tier of quarterbacks and the next tier seems to be closing in the eyes of some. Dan is definitely one of those people as he drafted Mariota with the first pick of the round and called it his best of the draft. “Getting, what I consider, an elite option at quarterback in the sixth was probably my favorite value. I have Mariota in the top tier with Newton, Luck, and Wilson, but I landed him almost a full round after Rodgers. At just 23 years of age, and producing QB1 numbers consistently as he progresses, Marcus Mariota is the dynasty QB of the future.” Personally, I don’t have Mariota there yet, but I have him and Derek Carr quickly closing that gap.
For me, the most interesting pick of this round was Tyrell Williams. He’s young and has had some solid games this year playing in place of injured players, but is he really a top 70 (top 60 if we remove draft picks) dynasty prospect? If I’m being completely honest, I don’t even have him in my top 100. Maybe I’m just behind the curve on this one, which wouldn’t be the first time, but I just feel it was a bit of a reach given the players still on the board. Maybe he can come back next year and be a solid WR2 opposite from a healthy Keenan Allen. However, with Allen, Gordon, and Antonio Gates/Hunter Henry all competing for targets I think WR2 ranks would be the extreme best case for Williams.
Round 7 (73-84)
- Rookie Pick 1.10
- Derek Carr, QB OAK
- Rookie Pick 1.11
- Golden Tate, WR DET
- Hunter Henry, TE SD
- Mark Ingram, RB NO
- Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
- Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
- John Brown, WR ARI
- Michael Crabtree, WR OAK
- Jeremy Maclin, WR KC
- Jamison Crowder, WR WAS
Now that we are getting firmly into the middle rounds of this draft, the picks are all about value. The seventh round definitely didn’t disappoint. I love almost all of the players drafted here. Carr is a player quickly on the rise who I think could turn into a player in the elite tier of their position. While the rest of the players in this round don’t have the same upside a Carr, almost all of them do offer a decent chance to be a top 25 producer at their position on a regular basis. Hard to complain about that if we are already 70+ players deep into the draft.
Outside of Carr, the other players in this round who I think could gain the most value over the last part of the season are Crowder, Hill, and Ingram. Crowder has been looking impressive over the last few weeks and could make it easy for the team in Washington to move on from their aging receivers. Hill is going to have a lot of opportunity with Bernard going down, and Ingram needs to remind people he is the most talented rusher in that backfield.
I still don’t think I’m a huge fan of taking late first round picks over most of the players in this round. What are the chances the tenth and eleventh best rookies are going to out produce the players drafted in this round and the next? Sometimes I think people are just willing to take the gamble on the unknown. I’m not sure it will pay off, but I’m on one end of the spectrum and a lot of people are on the other end. In fact, I know one of our drafters wishes they had taken a pick instead of the player in this round. Matt had this to say, “Tate at 7.04 as my WR5 is fine value and made sense based on my roster construction up to that point, but it cost me getting a 2017 1st round pick. If I had a mulligan here I think I would prefer the 1.12.”
Matt wasn’t the only one looking back at the seventh round and wishing they had gone in a different direction. Nick wasn’t too happy with his selection of Maclin late in the round. Here are his thoughts, “I think he’s a solid pro, but just stuck in a bad situation with injuries piling up. Probably should have drafted Lockett instead.” Lockett went two picks later. Just an example of thinking someone would slide only to have the guy picking at the corner take them a bit sooner than expected. The funny thing is that Dan, who drafted Lockett, said it was his biggest mistake of the draft!
Round 8 (85-96)
- Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
- Thomas Rawls, RB SEA
- Latavius Murray, RB OAK
- Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL
- Rookie Pick 1.12
- Eddie Lacy, RB GB
- Jimmy Graham, TE SEA
- CJ Anderson, RB DEN
- Theo Riddick, RB DET
- Michael Floyd, WR ARI
- Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
- Jameis Winston, QB TB
There are a lot of great players in this round, but almost all of them have question marks about what the future will bring. Where will the free agents like Murray and Lacy end up next year? Will Rawls, Dixon, Anderson, and Riddick be able to win the starting job and keep it for their respective teams? Like every offseason, there will be a lot of flux at the running back position this year, and some of these pick could turn a team into a contender.
The future prospects for Floyd and Sanders are also very much in question. Both receivers have very unstable quarterback situations right now. Sanders is still productive right now, but he isn’t nearly at the level he was a few years ago. It isn’t his fault, but it is still impacting his value. As for Floyd, he not only has the quarterback questions but also teammate questions. What happens with Fitzgerald is going to have a huge impact on what happens to Floyd and if he resigns with the Cardinals.
I’m a little bias, because it was my selection in this round, but I love Graham at this price. He’s the seventh tight end off the board, and he looks like he is nearly back to his all-pro form. I’ll definitely take that as my every week tight end. He isn’t nearly as consistent in Seattle, but he’s easily a TE1 in my book, and his role seems to be growing.
As I mentioned at the end of round seven, Nick wishes he had drafted Lockett there, and Dan wishes he had gone a different direction in the early eighth round. Everyone definitely has their own opinions. Here is how Dan felt about the pick of Lockett, “It’s not that I dislike the value of Lockett in the eighth round, the pick just felt forced. With Floyd, Sanders, Snead, and plenty of other WRs still on the board, I should have taken the opportunity to grab another RB like CJ Anderson or even the final first round pick.”
That’s it for the middle rounds. Check back soon for the final rounds, rounds 9-12.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
