2017 Startup Mock Draft: Rounds 1-4
It is hard to believe that week 12 of the NFL season is already underway. Hopefully that means you are right in the thick of the playoff hunt right now, vying for a top seed. Unfortunately, that isn’t always the case. If you’re in enough leagues, you are undoubtedly turning your gaze towards the 2017 season in at least a few of them. In order to help give you some additional perspective on your roster and your trade targets, myself and 11 other writers here at DLF got together to do a 2017 startup mock draft.
For this mock draft, we decided to do 12 rounds, and we did our best to put ourselves into the mindset of what we would do six or so months from now. Due to the issue of not knowing which rookies will actually declare for the NFL draft, we decided to draft rookie draft picks instead of actual 2017 rookies. This way you still have an idea of where these picks are being valued in relationship to the current group of players.
To help give some perspective with the picks, I asked each of the participants to answer three questions once the draft was complete.
- Which of your twelve picks are you happiest about?
- Which of your twelve picks do you wish you could have back and do over?
- Who are three players you would likely target in the later rounds if this draft kept going.
I’ll be mixing their comments in with a little bit of round by round analysis.
In terms of scoring and format, we went with your standard PPR scoring of 1 point per reception for all positions. There were no positional bonuses, and this is not a superflex or 2QB league. On with the show!
Here are the first four rounds of the mock with the later rounds coming in the next few days.
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Round 1 (1-12)
- Odell Beckham Jr, WR NYG
- Ezekiel Elliot, RB DAL
- Amari Cooper, WE OAK
- Mike Evans, WR TB
- Antonio Brown, WR PIT
- Julio Jones, WE ATL
- AJ Green, WR CIN
- David Johnson, RB ARI
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
- Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
- Allen Robinson, WR JAC
- Brandin Cooks, WR NO
It should be a surprise to absolutely no one that elite wide receivers dominated the first round. However, it is interesting to see the order they were drafted in. Young, productive guys like Cooper and Evans are sliding up rankings while young guys who have struggled a bit like Hopkins are slipping just a bit. Right in the middle of the round you had the “old” elite receiver group. Personally, I think a little bit too much weight is given to age sometimes, so I don’t discount someone like a 27-year-old Julio Jones much if at all due to his age.
As for the first overall pick, some might view it as a difficult decision, but our own Ryan McDowell was very happy to step up to the plate with this one, calling it his best pick of the draft. “I’d say my best pick was my first one, the easy choice at the 1.01 spot, Odell Beckham. While both Mike Evans and Amari Cooper have gained some value this year and some have argued for either of them over OBJ at the top overall spot, I think Beckham is still deserving of being the cornerstone of a dynasty franchise. He is still on a torrid pace, despite what many considered a slow start this season.”
What is interesting about the first round are that running backs are making a comeback! Those who have been around fantasy long enough remember when the first round was the domain of the bellcow rusher. Are things starting to swing back that way? This past summer, you likely had one (who didn’t even go in the first round in this mock), maybe two running backs going in the later parts of the first round. This mock featured a trio of rushers with Elliott going as high as second overall. Some will undoubtedly scoff at this, but when you look at the current point totals in PPR leagues, you’ll see three running backs before you get to the top receiver. It could be just another reason why this season has been so strange, but it could also be just another one of the natural swings we see in life. The bellcows could be back!
Most of the players taken in the first round, regardless of their position, are guys with a track record of production and some obvious talent. In fact, almost all of them were drafted in the first two round of the NFL draft. Just something to think about.
Even though they are all solid players, that doesn’t mean there wasn’t any buyer’s remorse about the first round selections. Even people as knowledgeable and talented as our own Ken Moody had some second thoughts on his first round selection. Here is what he had to say. “Not sure if it’s my worst pick, and it may sound funny to say this, but Antonio Brown at 1.05. I had pre-drafted and thought I had Julio set just before Brown. I’m a big Julio fan, and would prefer him on my team over Brown. A little younger, a little more the focus of the offense, and I prefer the longevity of Matt Ryan over Big Ben. Not a huge separation between the two, but the oversight did kind of bug me.”
Round 2 (13-24)
- Todd Gurley, RB LA
- Rookie Pick 1.01
- Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
- Rookie Pick 1.02
- Dez Bryant, WR DAL
- TY Hilton, WR IND
- Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
- Keenan Allen, WR SD
- Stefon Diggs, WR MIN
- Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
- Davonta Freeman, RB ATL
- Corey Coleman, WR CLE
This is where things start getting really interesting for me. Overall, I’m a believer in the philosophy that you don’t win your league in the first few rounds of a draft, but you can lose it. For that reason, I tend to aim for guys I know can produce. This means I typically steer away from the guys who are all “potential” and “upside”, because that tells me you are paying the price for the best case scenario. You could easily be disappointed and at a disadvantage in your league if they don’t reach that potential. For that reason, I’m the guy who tends to shy away from unproven youth and rookies this early in the draft. I’ll let others take the chance and the risk of drafting an unknown while I go for someone like Bryant or Hilton. They all have proven they can be productive while still having elite upside.
With all of that said, I know I’m in the minority in a lot of cases, so it didn’t surprise me to see the first two rookie picks go in the early second. There is a TON of hype about the 2017 rookie class, and we haven’t even finished the college season yet. I can’t imagine what it will be like next spring. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the first rookie or two creep up into the late first round. Personally, that is much too risky for me. We all remember the early success of guys like Beckham, Elliot, and Hopkins in recent years. But for every one of them, there are two or three who have years like Laquon Treadwell or Josh Doctson have had this year. Maybe they will figure it out, maybe they won’t. You’re making a pretty big investment on those unknown quantities if you are drafting rookies this early.
At least two of our mock drafters agree with me as they felt their best picks of the entire draft were the proven receivers they picked up in the middle rounds.
Here is what Austan had to say about his pick of TY Hilton. “With my first picks in a startup, I want safe players who are consistent producers. That usually means receivers, and I think I got two such players with my first two picks, snagging A.J. Green and Hilton. In his fifth season, Hilton is on pace for his fourth straight 1,000-yard campaign, and playing with Andrew Luck in the Colts’ pass-happy offense makes him a fairly safe investment.”
Adam was also pretty thrilled with his pick of Dez in the second round, which I think is easily one of the best values in the first several rounds of this mock. Here is what he had to say. “I got risky in the first taking a running back, but felt that David Johnson was safe from the coming apocalypse so I needed a strong receiver to build this. Dez may miss a few games here and there, but he is a solid producer and a strong end zone threat no matter who is throwing him the ball. I wrestled with taking Keenan Allen here as well, but felt that Dez was the right choice.”
Round 3 (25-36)
- Rookie Pick 1.03
- Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
- Michael Thomas, WR NO
- Jarvis Landry, WR MIA
- Melvin Gordon, RB SD
- Donte Moncrief, WR IND
- Sterling Shepard, WR NYG
- Rookie Pick 1.04
- Cam Newton, QB CAR
- DeMarco Murray, RB TEN
- Rookie Pick 1.05
- Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
The third round is always interesting. You get a unique mix of the formerly elite but starting to fade stars with the unproven but potentially elite players. Guys like Demaryius Thomas and DeMarco Murray seem to be past their peak already in the eyes of most. The biggest issue for them might be the uncertainty of the team around them. Keep in mind, we are looking at the start of the 2017 season here. Both will be 29 years old, which isn’t bad for Thomas, but he doesn’t seem to have a quarterback yet.
As for Murray, Bill, one of our drafters, felt it was the best pick of his whole draft, and here is why. “Murray is currently second in rushing with 1,000 yards on the season. He also is fifth in catches by RBs. 11 TD in 11 weeks.” He’s having a great year, but Derrick Henry makes Murray’s value in 2017 and beyond a little bit suspect in my eyes.
As for the rising star part, guys like Michael Thomas, Gordon, Moncrief, and Shepard are all flashing major upside this year. The question for all of them is can they be consistent producers and enter the every week RB1/WR1 conversations. When you mix in three more rookie picks in this round, you can definitely see this is the point where our drafters feel it is time to start taking a chance on those young producers. For my money, I would much rather have one of the players in the league already who has done something than the rookie picks, but that’s just me.
Not everyone was happy with the third round. Jaron felt he struggled a bit with his pick in this round. Here is what he had to say about it. “I’m finding a big dropoff in talent around the early-to-mid third round of dynasty startups, and a need for a team to immediately start taking a path toward winning now versus a youth movement with players such as Demaryius Thomas and DeMarco Murray among the best players available. While I love Cam’s combination of youth and production, his tendency to take big hits plus the value at quarterback a few rounds later would lead me to change my pick to take the fourth rookie off the board.”
Round 4 (37-48)
- Rookie Pick 1.06
- Rookie Pick 1.07
- Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
- DeVante Parker, WR MIA
- Randall Cobb, WR GB
- Terrelle Pryor, WR CLE
- Lamar Miller, RB HOU
- Doug Baldwin, WR SEA
- Will Fuller, WR HOU
- Rookie Pick 1.08
- Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
- Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
It is now the fourth round of the mock and we already see the sixth, seventh, and eighth picks of the rookie draft going off the board. This is the point where I personally feel the hype is really starting to get a bit out of control on the 2017 rookie draft. As we all know, several of the potential rookies will decide to stay in school for another year. You’ll also have a few more who will disappoint in the pre-draft process or land in very sub-par situations during the draft. Do we really think that eight of them will actually be in the top 50 players in the NFL? You clearly know my view on this, but not everyone agrees with me. In fact, our drafters were torn on this very fact.
Nick felt that his selection of the 1.06 rookie pick in the early fourth round was the best of his entire draft. He said, “I believe this draft has six very good prospects in Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Davis, Juju, and Williams. This finished off my run of draft picks and gave me three players from the group.” Of course Nick is assuming they all make the jump to the NFL and nothing unfortunate happens in the pre-draft process or during the draft itself.
Dwayne was on the other end of the spectrum, feeling his selection of the 1.08 rookie pick late in the round was his biggest mistake of the whole draft, wishing he had drafted a current player instead. “If I could turn back the clock and change a pick, I would have passed on the 1.08 and drafted one of Laquon Treadwell, Jay Ajayi, or Josh Doctson. While the two wideouts have yet to make an impact, I believe strongly in their ceiling, and Jay Ajayi is running like a man determined to show up the doubters who let him slip to the fifth round of the NFL draft.”
When it comes to the non-rookie picks, it is tough to argue with most of the players who went in this round. Eifert’s health issues and Ajayi’s potential injury concerns long term would make me hesitate to draft them, but I understand the allure. Baldwin going this early might surprise some, but go check out his production over the last year and it will make sense. As for the rest, I think Fuller was a little bit of a reach. I don’t think he is quite at this level yet, but Pryor is the one who really seemed like a stretch to me. In fact, Pryor was Austan’s biggest regret when he was looking back at his draft.
Here is what Austan had to say about his selection of Pryor. “I don’t love risk early in drafts so I’m usually receiver-heavy in the first few rounds, but taking Pryor in the fourth was a gamble. The negatives here are his age (27) and the fact he may end up being the second option (behind Corey Coleman) on a putrid, low-scoring offense, which limits his upside. It’s not a terrible pick by any means — Pryor has looked pretty good this season — but I probably should have gone with Doug Baldwin, who is maybe a safer pick, or dipped my toes in the running back waters with Lamar Miller.”
There’s the first four rounds of our mock. The middle and later rounds of this mock will be posted over the next few days.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
