2017 Draft – First Look

Jeff Haverlack

Each year around this time I like to perform what I consider my “first look” at next year’s potential incoming rookie draft class, loosely examining the depth of the class with a focus on fantasy.  Every year finds a draft with its own unique variables and specifics from those previous.  That’s not to say the stratification and depth within certain positions doesn’t resemble prior year drafts, but it’s important to analyze each draft as an individual study, rather than apply blanket analysis.

Through this exercise and analysis, a fantasy coach can cross-reference the strength and weaknesses of the upcoming class with that of the potential draft picks held to discern the best use of those picks, be it through actual draft selection or, perhaps, trading away the pick for known production.  The lay of your team when combined with your draft picks will suggest a course of action that emerges as the NFL draft unfolds. 

Let me start with a tip that I believe is well understood (after each draft at least) but so infrequently followed:  Fantasy draft picks nearly always lose value AFTER the NFL draft.  The reason I say “after each draft at least” is because we fantasy coaches believe each selection holds the potential of being the missing piece to our team that will allow us to hoist that coveted league trophy.  In reality, the NFL draft rarely unfolds as planned and teams in desperate need of players at specific positions frequently surprise in a different direction, leaving those fantasy marquee names to fall, often times to teams which make a value selection without immediate need.  The result is top names often going to poor situations.  

Yet we as fantasy coaches, can’t help ourselves as the draft approaches.  Fantasy impact can most certainly come from high picks in your draft, but the odds are against you.  Just don’t discount the opportunity of trading away any pick in your first round if you can secure proven production in your starting lineup.

Your work begins now!

The first order of business is for us to ascertain the depth of the 2017 class toward determining risk-reward potential, especially in the first round.  What will follow my initial summary will be my top five rookies across each of the four primary positions.  Let’s dive in.

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First Look

This is a bit of a misnomer as my “first look” of any draft class exists well before the current NFL season begins and, in most all cases, well before even the previous year’s rookie draft.  But for purposes of DLF, the first look is my first written assessment of what fantasy coaches can expect overall, if not still a bit premature. 

Remember that a ranking here assumes that a player is declaring for the NFL Draft when you can be assured, especially for quarterbacks, some players may elect to return for their senior season.  Declaration day isn’t until early into the new year so as our analysis picks up steam here, know that the class is likely to shrink.

The 2017 draft class has been eyed by the fantasy community prior to the 2016 NFL Rookie Draft took place.  With some marquee names squarely on the radar, this upcoming draft looked stacked at most positions.  Since that time, not to mention a fair bit of parity across college game’s Top 25 schools, we’ve started to see some regression as the season grinds to a conclusion. 

At the running back position, all eyes have been on both Leonard Fournette (LSU) and Dalvin Cook (FSU).  Completely different traits and running styles, but both continue to carry a large amount of intrigue.  Beyond the top two, other names such as Nick Chubb (Georgia), who is returning from a knee (ACL) injury not one year ago, Christian McCaffrey (Stanford), Royce Freeman (Oregon) and even the rising Wayne Gallman (Clemson) provide a lot of depth to this running back class.  To be sure, other risers such as D’Onta Foreman (Texas), who is now a Heisman candidate and James Conner (Pittsburgh) provide significant upside to this year’s group.  The list doesn’t stop there with other names-of-note that will give me plenty of research options over the next few months. 

I fully expect some of the top names to return to school for their senior years but the depth of this class, regardless, looks significant.  I’m most concerned about Georgia’s Nick Chubb as his numbers have tailed off, certainly due to continuing rehab and confidence-building in his knee combined with poor offensive line play.  In the end, I believe he’ll still declare for the NFL and he could be considered a fine buy-low candidate on his down numbers and recent injury.

At receiver, things look decidedly more murky. williams

It appears to be another well-sized grouping headlined by Clemson’s Mike Williams, who sits atop most lists.  Beyond Williams, many other names exist but the drop-off after the top five (or so) appears rather abrupt.  Receivers are a difficult position to project to the NFL and some schools, specifically USC, have had significant trouble with developing NFL-productive players.  To wit, I saw a stat relating to USC’s recent draftees in the NFL and it wasn’t pretty.  Horrific would be a far more accurate word.

In any event, the size of the 2017 class in addition to what I believe will be fine athleticism will be enough to open eyes during the Combine process.  Beyond that is anyone’s guess and, unlike the running back position, receivers can find success more quickly than some running backs highly drafted into poor starting situations. 

As with other years, the 2017 class of receivers is going to produce a fair number of later-round fantasy selection opportunities.  Read “later round” as rookie selections late in the second round or beyond.    Those that have followed me know that I have some of my best success with receivers in the third round.  I’m fond of trading away end-of-roster players for third round selections for selection rights of those rookies that fall due to poor drafted situation.

The quarterbacks of 2017 will bring good size, good arms and a lot of upside.  At this juncture, without a lot of tape review, I don’t see a marquee name that is a must-have talent.  Clemson’s Deshaun Watson may draw Cam Newton comparisons but is a bit of a gun slinger with questionable decision making.  North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky continues to get a lot of love as does Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer.  Both appear to be finishing strong.

Those needing a quarterback or those within 2QB leagues should feel great about this class as there’s enough talent to be intriguing yet not a headliner that demands immediate hype.  This is a class for staying in your slot and allowing the quarterbacks to come to you.

At the tight end position, while there’s little reason to be ultra-excited O.J. Howard (Alabama) and Virgina Tech’s Bucky Hodges could be early second round selections in fantasy and, should either show well at the Combine, could sneak into the late first round in 12-team leagues should they fall into superior situations.  There’s little reason to get overly excited about here but most years are similar in that regard.   2017 does not initially appear to be the year.

Summary

Early ranking of this class is not as difficult as it has been in previous years. 

While the depth of the class is quite good, especially when considering second and third tier players, the stratification between positions makes for a very intriguing situation, allowing fantasy coaches to fill need almost regardless of position within the first round, arguably the second as well.

What we know about the nature of the NFL Rookie Draft, however, is that it’s not uncommon to end up with a reverse Midas touch of sorts as those that glitter with value pre-draft, often fade quickly when drafted into an extremely poor situation.

Extremely rarely do rookie draft picks gain value following the NFL Rookie Draft.  If you are selling draft picks, do so ahead of the draft when premium is greatest.  If you are a buyer, it’s usually best to wait as long as possible unless demand and/or competition dictates action. 

Rankings

As is standard, following is my early top-five rookies within each of the four primary offensive positions.  Order is certain to change as I begin watching more tape and begin evaluating and projecting these players for the leap to the NFL.

Let’s get to the lists:

Quarterbacks

As said previously, this group has promise but is lacking the marquee name.  This class shows a return to more prototypical quarterback traits which seems to be back in focus in the NFL.  Big arms, athleticism and intelligence should be on display from this group and draft situation will figure prominently in early development.  Even beyond these five, there is depth to like in 2017.

There’s so much parity at this point in my eyes that you could easily flip this list and still make good arguments for the rankings.

  1. Mitch Trubisky, Junior – North Carolina
  2. Deshaun Watson, Junior – Clemson
  3. DeShone Kizer, Junior – Notre Dame
  4. Brad Kaaya, Junior – Miami (Fla.)
  5. Patrick Mahomes II, Junior – Texas Tech

Running Backs

There’s tremendous value to be had in this year’s crop of emerging backs.  While my top three will not likely change, unless one (Chubb?) returns for his senior year, it will not shock me in the least when looking back five years from now if backs outside this listing are staging better careers.

Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook will not likely be replaced by analysts as the top two prospects but which is selected first overall will be hotly debated until the NFL Draft, perhaps beyond.  Fournette is a bruising downhill runner with vision and agility to bring an impact or get angular through a hole.  Cook is the smaller back with lightning-quick lateral agility, acceleration, hands out of the backfield and speed to the corner.  Nick Chubb, if not for his ACL injury, could easily have been in the mix as the first back off the board.

Outside of the top three, intrigue and mystery awaits.  The biggest mystery is that of Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey.  Not your typical NFL carry-the-load back in any sense but he redefines the terms dynamic and elusiveness.  How he’ll eventually be used is anyone’s guess and risk is inherent.  My somewhat-surprising inclusion of Wayne Gallman is more a ranking based on early observation and it is at this position that ranking that new names could start appearing.

The next five backs hold promise as well and should not be counted out as difference makers at the next level.  Beginning late in fantasy draft’s first round, some of these players will be great values.  Don’t fret D’onta Foreman fans, I’m not forgetting about him.  He’s a true beast of a runner, think LeGarrette Blount with better feet, and I fully expect that he’ll be vying for my top five following further tape review.

  1. Leonard Fournette, Junior – LSU
  2. Dalvin Cook, Junior – Florida St.
  3. Nick Chubb Junior – Georgia
  4. Wayne Gallman, Junior – Clemson
  5. Christian McCaffrey Junior – Stanford

Wide Receivers

While 2017 doesn’t hold the same size that previous years have, there’s still good size and dynamic to be had from this year’s group.  Mike Williams clearly headlines this class in my estimation and I haven’t seen another player yet that will challenge him for the ranking.  Smith-Schuster and Davis also carry good size, dynamic and ball skills but either based upon competition or other factors carry more risk than I would like given their ranking.  Smith-Schuster will try to break USC’s dismal results in producing NFL level talent and Davis must answer questions about his production given lesser competition.

This year’s upside selection currently is Tech’s Isaiah Ford who, despite some consistency issues, appears to possess a great combination of NFL traits.  John Ross is this year’s rookie edition in the mold of Antonio Brown or Doug Baldwin

The group gets thin relatively quickly but there’s enough talent below this early top five to provide hope and opportunity, especially after their drafted situation is known.

  1. Mike Williams, Junior – Clemson
  2. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Junior – USC
  3. Corey Davis, Junior – Western Michigan
  4. Isaiah Ford, Junior – Virginia Tech.
  5. John Ross, Junior – Washington

Tight Ends

Very few tight ends grace the first round in fantasy drafts and I can’t say that 2017 will be a year when that occurs again.  Detroit’s Eric Ebron was the last name to hear his name called in the first in fantasy and his results have been mixed at best.

Both Howard and Hodges have talent and ability that could push their value but I’m hard pressed to predict that without much more tape review.  Stay tuned.  Beyond the top two, Jake Butt certainly has NFL ability but traversing tight end rankings in fantasy beyond the top one or two names rarely produces early results.

  1. O.J. Howard, Senior – Alabama
  2. Bucky Hodges, Junior – Virginia Tech
  3. Jake Butt, Senior – Michigan
  4. Jordan Leggett, Senior – Clemson
  5. Evan Engram, Senior – Ole Miss

In Conclusion

A lot of work remains!

This article kicks off the work that will take place over the next six months as I dive into tape to further solidify these rankings, evaluate all the top talent and look for those hidden gems that many others may miss. 

You’ve heard me talk about the “parrots” of fantasy who simply parrot what others are saying without doing any of their own research.  You can’t allow yourself to be swayed by this and the noise ratio during this period is VERY high.  Members at DLF deserve better and they get better, it’s just that simple.

Here at DLF, we’re not afraid to go against the grain even if it’s not popular.  I don’t support ANY player assessment that I have not seen myself and I will watch hours and hours of tape each draft season toward making sure my rankings are as good as they can possibly be.  You should expect no less from any analyst you choose to hitch your wagon to.

2017 looks promising to be sure but I’m already noting a thinning at certain positions where I had hoped it wouldn’t be.  That’s not to say that there isn’t a lot of promise but we’re trending to a draft not as deep as I had expected earlier.  But much tape review remains and it’s very possible that the there’s a disparity between the production and the talent.  This is where the work of objective assessment comes in.

Stick with us as we navigate the 2017 draft toward separating the studs from the duds!

Follow Jeff on Twitter:  @DLF_Jeff

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jeff haverlack