The Dynasty Doctor: Week 11

Scott Peak Posted On November 22, 2016

Editor’s Note: Injuries are a huge part of winning and losing each year in fantasy leagues. Staying abreast of injury situations is key, as knowing what to expect from your players health-wise in the short term can help you make educated decisions in managing your team. Lucky for us, we have a Doctor in the house. Dr. Scott Peak is an ABPN board certified neurologist and neuro-oncologist. He is also a dynasty football addict and a Senior Writer for Dynasty League Football. He’s excited to lend his expertise in medicine with hopes he may help the DLF Team and its followers better understand medical conditions and injuries that may impact NFL players and dynasty football owners.

If you have a question for The Dynasty Doctor, just click here. Please remember The Dynasty Doctor is geared towards questions regarding medical science, injuries to players and their collective impact in fantasy football. Stay tuned each week as we’ll post his thoughts each and every Tuesday.

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AJ Green, WR CIN

It was a rough week for injuries. Green reportedly has a significant hamstring injury. How long Green is out will depend on the grade of injury. Grade 2 hamstring strains are 4 to 6 week injuries. Unless he has a grade 1 injury (3 weeks), it’s looking bleak for him to be available for fantasy players in the playoffs. Green will be 29 years old next season, but should have ample time to recover. Risk of recurrent hamstring injuries can be 15-30% depending on whose data you believe, but an off-season to recover should help a lot. Green has an ADP of 7.5 and that seems likely to drop on this news. Still, I wouldn’t sell Green at a discount in dynasty. I think he has a few years left of elite fantasy production.

LeSean McCoy, RB BUF

McCoy has a dislocated thumb and will need surgery to put in back in place. Reports are he may be able to play next week. Players can return with a splint or cast, but we’ll have to monitor this closely. I don’t think it alters his dynasty value. McCoy has been durable, missing just 12 games since his rookie year in 2009. It doesn’t sound like McCoy will be out long, and he is presently the RB9 in PPR despite missing two games this year. His production in PPR leagues might take a dip, as catching passes with a splint on his thumb may be challenging. Mike Gillislee had 14 carries for 72 yards (5.1 YPC). I’m still buying him on contending teams.

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

Bernard tore an ACL and is done for the year. The Bengals season is exploding before our eyes. Bernard is looking at surgery and a 6-9 month recovery. Bernard has a reasonable chance at being available week 1 of 2017, barring any unforeseen setbacks in this recovery. Bernard is the RB21 in PPR leagues and his ADP is likely to drop on this news (RB 20, ADP 68). Still, Bernard will be just 25 years old next season, and I’m still a buyer. I’d trade a second round rookie pick for him, or something in that price range.

Andrew Luck, QB IND

Luck sustained a concussion and is questionable for this week’s Thursday Thanksgiving games. Scott Tolzien may get the start, and good luck to anyone who needs solid performances from Colts’ players week 12. No adverse impact to Luck’s dynasty value, although I’m concerned about the abuse he’s taking on a weekly basis. Perspective is important, and Luck is still the QB5. At least he’s not as bad as Cam Newton (QB15).

CJ Prosise, RB SEA

Prosise has a fractured scapula and may be out 4-6 weeks. Prosise had a nice game (4 carries for 76 yards and 1 touchdown), but 72 yards came on one carry. Prosise added 2 receptions for 5 yards. Thomas Rawls got 14 carries for 57 yards, and 3 receptions for 31 yards. With Prosise out, we’ll see if Alex Collins gets more touches. Prosise has had a tough year with injuries, but I’m still a buyer in dynasty.

Ryan Mathews, RB PHI

Mathews left the game with a knee injury and reportedly had a brace on after the game. Reports are he may have an MCL sprain. How much time he misses depends on the severity of it. Athletes can return in 1-2 weeks from grade 1 MCL sprains, but grade II (3-4 weeks) and grade III sprains (6 weeks or longer) can result in an extended absence. The oft-injured Mathews doesn’t have much dynasty value left (RB50 based on November ADP data on DLF). Darren Sproles was also hurt, and we’ll see if Wendell Smallwood can take the job. Smallwood had 13 carries for 48 yards, and 4 receptions for 31 yards. Considering the Eagles were playing in Seattle, that’s not bad. If you are a believer in Smallwood, now is the time to grab him.

Zach Miller, TE CHI

Miller has a broken foot and will miss the rest of the season. Mid-foot or Lisfranc sprains can take 6 weeks or longer before athletes return to play. A Jones’ fracture can take 3 months or longer to recover, and often require surgery. It’s not a surprise that Miller will be shut down for the rest of the year. Miller is the TE11, and that’s fairly good return on value (MFL redraft ADP 135, TE17). Jay Cutler may have a shoulder injury and if he misses time, Matt Barkley is the next QB up. The Bears offense is a disaster. Maybe Jordan Howard can help this year. Cameron Meredith had a subpar performance (4 receptions, 49 yards on just 4 targets). The Bears schedule looks decent to finish this year (Titans, Forty Niners, Lions, Packers and Redskins), but it’s hard to trust this offense. I’m not a buyer on Miller in dynasty.

Robert Woods, WR BUF

Woods has a knee injury and was unable to return to the game. He was spotted on crutches after the game. Woods is the WR50 this year in PPR, and his dynasty ADP is minimal (ADP 169 in November and is the WR77). The most significant news is a possible return of Sammy Watkins. Marquise Goodwin has had his moments of fantasy relevance, but has issues with consistency. We’ll see if Percy Harvin has anything left, but he hasn’t impressed thus far. Fingers crossed that Watkins makes his return very soon.

Luke Kuechly, LB CAR

Sad news for IDP players. Kuechly has another concussion. He missed a month last year with a concussion. Hopefully he’ll be back soon but it wouldn’t surprise me if he is out a few weeks. A caveat is, concussion severity is hard to predict. We do know that a history of concussions increases risk of subsequent concussions. We’ve certainly seen players return after suffering multiple concussions and play well (i.e. Jordan Reed). We’ll have to wait it out and see how long it takes for Kuechly to complete the concussion protocol. At 4-6, Carolina is on fringe of playoff consideration, and another loss will likely doom them. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kuechly doesn’t play another down this year. I’m still a buyer in dynasty, and I’d be sending out offers for him in IDP leagues.

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