Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
With Ladarius Green returning to limited action in week ten, Jesse James could be fading into the background soon. The Browns are giving up a ton of points to tight ends, so snaps, targets, and fantasy points scored by the Steelers tight end duo should be a good indicator of what direction things are headed in for each. Green played only 12 snaps in week ten. If that goes up and he puts up some points, expect his role to keep growing.
Rookie quarterback Cody Kessler has honestly played decently given his lack of experience and the overall uninspiring team around him. That could mean he has a career ahead of him in the NFL. On the flip side, he was benched mid-game as recently as last week and news is that Robert Griffin III will be making a return late this year. Those things can only be bad for his short term value. It is possible he surges against the Steelers in what could be a high scoring game, so check in to see how he has fared after this one.
Chicago at New York (Giants)
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With the suspension of Alshon Jeffery, assumptions have widely been that Cameron Meredith and/or Marquess Wilson could be the primary benefactors. My money is going in a different direction. Remember way back in week eight when Jay Cutler played amazing football and trounced the Vikings? Zach Miller led the team in targets and receptions. Cutler played poorly following this explosion, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go back to what worked. If Miller is more involved again this week, expect it to continue through Jeffery’s suspension.
After struggling to produce fantasy points for most of the season, Rashad Jennings suddenly seems to be hitting his stride at the right time of year. The Bears defense is nothing to worry about, so simply watch to see if Jennings can keep cranking out points in a decent matchup. In the event he does, there is value to be had in buying him for a title run.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Completion percentages and turnover rates notwithstanding, Jameis Winston has been playing some pretty good football from a stats standpoint. Connecting with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate consistently now, Winston is also getting Doug Martin back to hopefully take some pressure off of the passing game. The Chiefs defense is no pushover, but if Winston keeps cranking out fantasy production I think you have to take his downsides with a grain of salt.
With Jeremy Maclin heading towards another missed week, Tyreek Hill once again stands to benefit the most. Regardless of whether his touches are a bit manufactured, he is producing when he gets targets. Look for him to continue his success against Tampa Bay. This will be interesting to watch, as now that the Chiefs have featured him once there is good game film to analyze. Can he be shut down if a team game plans against how he is deployed in a featured role? If they can shut him down, it could be bad news for his value as he will be a boom or bust kind of guy.
Arizona at Minnesota
The Cardinals are rolling lately with Carson Palmer throwing an absurd amount of yards the past few weeks. On the flip side, his touchdown rate has been inconsistent with David Johnson running in nine touchdowns this season. Palmer isn’t getting any younger and his wide receivers are a question mark going forward due to age, consistency, injuries, and contract situations. In an offense scoring like this and for an older quarterback like Palmer, you would normally expect an excellent win now asset. Instead we have an inconsistent question mark. What can he do against Minnesota? If he thrives, I imagine he is still worth a fair amount to a contender.
Tough matchups are a great indicator of what a top player can do. This week, we get the pleasure of watching Stefon Diggs be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. Diggs has been lights out in a few games this year, but disappeared in others. If he disappears again this week, it won’t be a huge surprise but it will keep Diggs from being a plug and play option. If he does well, he could be heading towards plug and play status in the future.
Jacksonville at Detroit
Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles hasn’t played good football this year. For fantasy football, though, he’s salvaged the season by being a garbage time hero. A bad defense can cure many offensive woes, and Detroit is terrible against the pass. Look to see if this is a get right game for Bortles from a real football standpoint. If it is, his value could rebound some.
The Jaguars are giving up a lot of short receptions, and that is where Golden Tate makes his money. Expect Tate to continue to soak up targets and do his thing after the catch. I firmly believe there are good games ahead for Marvin Jones, but this probably is not the time for that yet. Tate should be continuing to get value ups after a long slide to start the season.
Buffalo at Cincinnati
I’ve written about Tyrod Taylor a few times this year, generally positing the question of whether he can thrive with a set of lackluster weapons. While his weekly passing floor has been pretty low, his fantasy floor has been pretty high due to rushing production. He isn’t a top flight option, but he could be getting Sammy Watkins back soon. Couple that with a soft matchup against a Bengals pass defense, and you have the recipe for a player who should have his value go up if he can produce in this spot.
Speaking of quarterbacks, Andy Dalton has shown a low floor and low ceiling this year. He is still playing decently, but he simply doesn’t have the weapons around him that he used to have. With more time, Tyler Boyd could develop into a fine weapon but he clearly is not there yet. Tyler Eifert is just returning from injury and things don’t appear to be clicking on all cylinders yet. After a down week last week, I want to see Dalton bounce back to prove his value.
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Feel free to re-read what I wrote about Marcus Mariota last week. He has put the NFL on blast and is continuing to tear through it. The Colts defense shouldn’t be able to slow him down, and he should be rapidly ascending the value charts for quarterbacks. A performance anywhere in the ballpark of his last few should keep him rolling.
Since returning from injury, Donte Moncrief has put up okay fantasy production with a touchdown each week, but he hasn’t eclipsed a 50% catch rate yet. That should be alarming. Really all I’m looking for here is for him to get back to a reasonable catch rate. NFL teams tend to view guys who can’t maintain a decent catch rate as expendable.
Baltimore at Dallas
Do you know who led the Ravens in targets in week ten? If you answered Steve Smith, you’re partly right. Tying Smith with seven targets, Kenneth Dixon saw significant work in the passing game. You may have noticed that the Cowboys can score points, so expectation for me is that the Ravens will need to do whatever they can to keep up. That means more targets out of the backfield for Dixon, and more room for his value to grow as he eats into Terrance West’s workload.
Speaking of the Cowboys putting up points, that starts with Dak Prescott. The Ravens have a fierce pass rush that has been crippling some quarterbacks this season. While Dak has played quite well this year, he is still inexperienced. Can he handle this pass rush with maturity? The Ravens defense is burnable deep, so what we want to see is Dak taking shots when he can and avoiding big negative plays in sacks or turnovers. If he shines here, Dak is here to stay.
Miami at Los Angeles
Perhaps lost in the emergence of Jay Ajayi, Jarvis Landry hasn’t really done much lately. The focal point of this offense has shifted, and all of those short targets to Landry that acted as a stand-in for a real run game have been replaced with a real run game. Volume was Landry’s only friend, and even against some poor cornerback play it is unlikely he bounces back to what people expected when they drafted him. Look to see if he exceeds these low expectations.
It looks as though Kenny Britt has a stranglehold on the lead receiver duties for the Rams, but there is a new sheriff in town in Jared Goff. Which receiver will he favor? Rapport could be very different with a new quarterback, and Britt’s stats to date could go in any direction – up, down, or hold steady. The only way to know how to value him is to pay very close attention to how and when he is targeted by Goff, and what he does with those targets.
Philadelphia at Seattle
Lately, Carson Wentz hasn’t thrown many touchdowns. He figures to have a very long leash with his draft pedigree, but he isn’t putting everything together in 2016 as it looked like he might at the start of the season. It doesn’t seem likely that he will turn things around in week 11, either, playing the Seahawks on the road. Things will get worse for Wentz before they get better, if they ever get better. With continued lackluster play, it becomes fair to ask the question of whether he will ever turn it around.
Lately, CJ Prosise has dominated backfield touches for the Seahawks. That’s a good thing. On the flip side, his competition for touches as he dominated them was Christine Michael, who has since been released. That means the coaching staff didn’t think much of him as they were piling touches on Prosise. Now Thomas Rawls is returning and we know the coaching staff loves him. So, put simply, what will the workload distribution be? It will be indicative of value going forward.
New England at San Francisco
If all goes according to plan, LeGarrette Blount will continue to lead the league in touchdowns and will crush statistically against the 49ers this week. The 49ers give up the most points to running backs and the Patriots are heavy favorites, leading to a favorable game script for Blount. He has been undervalued this year, and continued success should improve his value even though he carries the dreaded distinction of being a running back for the Patriots that doesn’t really catch passes.
Since the game lines up well for Blount, that means Colin Kaepernick will be tasked with trying to keep up. Can he do it? If he does it, how will he go about it? He needs to improve his passing stats in order to really go up in value. Providing rushing stats will likely not increase his value, since that is where most of his value currently lies anyway, due to the floor it provides. Passing success will provide a ceiling to go with it.
Green Bay at Washington
Over the past four weeks, Davante Adams has a low score of 14.1 fantasy points and a high score of 38.2. That is quite impressive, and the only thing we really need to evaluate for his value is if he can keep it up. Between now and the end of the year, we will want to keep tabs on what his lowest score is. If it remains above ten points, his value going forward should be massive. So – can he keep it up?
As Matt Jones goes in one direction, Rob Kelley necessarily goes in the other. Where Jones had ball control and consistency issues, Kelley has nothing but consistency on his side. He is less likely to break the big run, but at least the coaching staff knows what they are going to get when they hand the ball to Kelley. His value is tied to that consistency, so if it suddenly disappears then his value may also disappear. The Packers are a phenomenal run defense, so this could get interesting.
Houston at Oakland
Oakland doesn’t give up a ton of fantasy points to tight ends, but CJ Fiedorowicz is carving out an increasing and consistent role in the Texans offense. While Houston’s defense is solid, we know the Raiders can put up points. So, I expect that Fiedorowicz will continue to get opportunities in a game where the Texans need to keep up. Keep tabs on how he is producing compared to Ryan Griffin, although the offense has room for both of them.
The Texans have a stellar pass defense but a lackluster rush defense. Latavius Murray is dominating backfield touches for the Raiders lately, so this game shapes up nicely for him. Look to see if Murray becomes the focal point of the offense or not in this game. It should be a game where the coaching staff game plans to feature him, so if they do not it will be alarming for his future value.