FanDuel Bargains: Week 11
Editor’s Note: We’re going to be bringing you an unprecedented amount of content this year during the season, mostly dynasty related. However, seeing the explosion of DFS games, we’ll also be ramping up our Daily coverage, similar to last season. Even if you don’t play in DFS games, these articles can help you in making lineup decisions or judge the current value of your dynasty assets.
Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.
Keep in mind that these suggestions are for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments with more than 50 participants where players are looking for bargains to fill out their lineups after already inserting their “studs” for the week. Many of them are risky plays and shouldn’t necessarily reflect good choices for head-to-head or 50/50 games. Rankings courtesy of ESPN.
Quarterbacks
Alex Smith, QB KCC ($6,700)
Alex Smith could not do much against the Carolina Panthers but be accurate and get the Chiefs in position enough to come out victorious. He completed 25 of 38 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns and managed to throw an interception. This was his first game back coming off concussion protocol. He is only averaging 13.8 points per week, has been held scoreless three times this season and hasn’t topped 250 yards after the week five bye.
Now he will face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is allowing the sixth most FanDuel points to the opposing quarterback and their overall defense ranks 28th while their passing is 25th in the NFL. Smith should be able to feast on the Bucs this week. The Chiefs have a 26 point implied total which could result in two touchdowns from Smith.
The Chiefs are favorites (7.5) at home and the over/under is 44.5
Consider:
Brock Osweiler, QB HOU ($6,400)
It’s going to be fiesta time on Monday Night Football as the Houston Texans take on the Oakland Raiders south of the border in Azteca Stadium.
Last week, Brock Osweiler completed 14-of-27 passes for 99 yards and two touchdowns in the Texans’ week ten win over the Jaguars. Completing just over 50 percent of his passes for 99-yards is not something to get overly excited about, but those two touchdowns are and so is his matchup.
Even though Osweiler wasn’t Superman out there against Jacksonville, he played well enough against an underrated passing defense. With the Raiders, he will find more room out there and be able to utilize his receivers. Also, Lamar Miller should give him more protection by running the ball.
The Raiders rank 31st against the pass and have an overall defense of 29th in the NFL. They do give up 17.9 fantasy points to the opposing quarterback and Osweiler averages 12.5 FanDuel points per game. Houston has an implied total of 20 points, so I expect at least one touchdown from the struggling signal-caller.
The Raiders are favorites (5.5) at home and the over/under is 46
Running Backs
C.J. Prosise, RB SEA ($4,900)
C.J. Prosise made a significant statement last week as he tore through the New England Patriots defense with relative ease. He rushed 17 times for 66 yards and caught seven passes for 87 yards in his first career start Sunday. He has worked himself up the ladder in his rookie season as his reps increased from 43 percent in week eight to 55 percent, and last week against the Patriots it climbed to 77. Seattle felt so comfortable with Prosise that they released Christine Michael (Green Bay).
He will have to learn to split time with now healthy Thomas Rawls, but Prosise should still get the majority of the touches this week as Rawls has had just a small amount of game day exposure this season.
The Eagles do not provide an ideal matchup, but at this price point, Prosise could be an absolute steal. They are 13th against the rush and allow 100.6 yards per game while giving up 13.1 fantasy points one of the toughest in the NFL.
Latavius Murray, RB OAK ($6,400)
Don’t get fixated on his three touchdowns against the Denver Broncos. He will be lucky to get two this week against the Houston Texans. The Texans are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season. They rank 26th against the run and give up 120.7 yards a game. As for fantasy points 17.7 on average which is the 12th worst. They also don’t give up much in the passing game when it comes to running backs.
The game on Monday night should remain close, and if the Oakland offense can get establish the run game, they should be successful. In games where Murray has had at least 14 touches he has put up 20.1 FanDuel points. I don’t see why that wouldn’t be the case again. Watch for David Carr to hand off as much as possible to keep Oakland’s offense in the balance and drain the clock. The Raiders should get the implied 26 points meaning that Murray should get at least one score.
The Raiders are favorites (5.5) at home and the over/under is 46
Jeremy Hill, RB CIN ($5,900)
Easily a great option, but one that frustrates many owners at different times of the season. His price tag is too solid for me to pass up, even though there are several other lower priced options. Chris Ivory, James Starks, and Rob Kelley are all intriguing.
Last week, Jeremy Hill rushed 15 times for 46 yards and a touchdown in Monday night’s loss to the Giants. He now has scored in three straight games, but his numbers are reflective as he is averaging just 11.3 FanDuel points a game, but he has scored 50 points in the last three contests, going double-digits each time.
Hill owns the Cleveland Browns, but who doesn’t right? He also takes it to them in front of the home crowd at Paul Brown Stadium, he’s averaging 103.0 yards per game and 6.15 yards per attempt with four touchdowns.
At home against a Bills defense that ranks 22nd against the run, per Football Outsiders, Hill is a sneaky tournament play. Buffalo gives up 108.9 yards per game and 16.2 fantasy points, which is in the middle of the pack. They are also stingy against giving up the pass to running backs. Not that Hill is a pass catcher. Cincinnati has implied odds of 25, which should open the door for at least one touchdown from Hill.
The Bengals are favorites (2.5) on the road and the over/under is 47.5
Consider:
Rob Kelley, RB WAS ($5,400)
Rob Kelley carried 22 times for 97 yards and caught his only target for a two-yard loss in Sunday’s 26-20 win over the Vikings. The undrafted free agent had a strong preseason and with Matt Jones hurting he has stepped in to help the offense.
He has two straight games now where he has scored in double-digits. Those contests have come against the Cincinnati Bengals (14.7) and last week the Minnesota Vikings came into town (10). Now he will take on the Green Bay Packers rush defense that is allowing 84.4 yards a game (fourth) and has allowed just 14.3 fantasy points to run backs.
With Kirk Cousins, Jordan Reed, and Jamison Crowder destroying the Packers secondary, look for Kelley to take advantage of the soft belly of Green Bay’s front. The “Skins” have 26 points implied to their total, therefore look for Kelley to get a touchdown. I just expect low yardage numbers against this defense.
The Redskins are favorites (2.5) at home and the over/under is 49.5
Wide Receiver
Julian Edelman, WR NEP ($6,100)
Three things to know about the game in San Francisco. One, Tom Brady did not throw a single touchdown last week against the Seattle Seahawks. Second, the New England Patriots lost to the Seahawks. Three, the Patriots are playing the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers defense is abysmal. They rank 32nd overall in total defense and 14th against the pass giving up 249.2 yards per game. The 49ers also allow 25 fantasy points to the opposing wide receiver, which puts them as the fourth-worst team in that area.
Edelman is battling a foot ailment, but it’s been bothering him the whole season, and last week against Seattle he caught 7-of-9 targets for 99 yards. He has only scored one touchdown this season, but I think that changes on Sunday, especially with Rob Gronkowski out of the lineup (lung). The implied point total for New England is 31.
The Patriots are favorites (11.5) on the road and the over/under is 51
Donte Moncrief, WR IND ($6,500)
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off their bye week and should be prepared to take on the Tennessee Titans. The Colts are in a win or go home mode and need to beat the Titans to win this season’s series. The last time they met was in week seven and Donte Moncrief was still injured and could not play.
Moncrief is averaging 7.3 targets, 4.3 receptions and 53.3 yards with three touchdowns. His role is minimal but he is getting those important red zone targets and Andrew Luck likes to go to him down low. In just ten games with Luck at quarterback, he has scored eight times.
Tennessee is crippled when it comes to points allowed to wide receivers. They are giving up anywhere near 15-19 FanDuel points in the last five games and have the 23rd ranked passing defense (267.7) so Luck should have plenty of space to find his talented receiver in what should be a high-scoring game. Indianapolis has an implied score of 27.
The Colts are favorites (3.0) at home and the over/under is 53
Golden Tate, WR DET ($6,600)
Golden Tate is one that you are going to want to look at because of low ownership, but could deliver high upside. His season hasn’t been the one he has established himself within the previous seasons, but their offense has changed because of the departure of Calvin Johnson. Now instead of one deep receiver and one possession, the Lions have three possession types and a tight end.
The light has been shining on him in the last four games however. He is averaging nearly 11 targets per game (10.75) and has come down with eight receptions 95 yards and two touchdowns while being targeted eight times in the red zone. This is the Tate we have grown to see.
It will open up for Tate even more now that Marvin Jones will most likely face Jacksonville Jaguars defensive back Jalen Ramsey who has been one of the better shutdown corners in the NFL. The Jaguars are allowing 21.1 fantasy points to wide receivers, tenth in the NFL. Jacksonville has the fourth best defense against the pass as well 203.7 yards allowed. The Lions have 27 points implied.
The Lions are favorites (6.5) at home and the over/under is 47.5
Consider:
Rishard Matthews WR, TEN ($6,000)
Rishard Matthews has been climbing the charts. He is now valued at $6,000 which is a $200 increase from last week. More than likely that has to do with his performance against the Green Bay Packers. Last week, Mathews caught three of five targets for 63 yards and a touchdown Sunday against the “Pack”.
Matthews has four touchdowns during a three-game scoring streak and has now found pay dirt six times in his last six games. He is taking ownership of that number one receiver role and is still under the radar for defensive coordinators.
The Titans will face the Colts on Sunday, and Indianapolis is extremely weak against the pass, ranking less in yards allowed 287.9 but the middle of the pack in allowing fantasy points (21.4) which are 19th in the NFL.
This is going to be an extremely high scoring game according to Las Vegas, and there should be a lot of air strikes. Watch for Marcus Mariota to at least connect with Rishard Matthews at least once inside the end zone. The implied points are 25 for Tennessee.
The Colts are favorites (3.0) at home and the over/under is 53
Tight Ends
Martellus Bennett, TE NEP ($5,200)
With Rob Gronkowski out for the game this means Martellus Bennett will have an excellent opportunity to get serious looks. Especially, if Chris Hogan is still suffering from a back injury. Bennett had over 100 yards against Seattle with Gronk banged up and went over 100 yards twice early in the season when he was out or limited due to injury. The 49ers seem to suffer when it gets to covering tight ends. They gave 100+ yards to Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham.
On the season, Bennett has caught 38 passes on 47 targets for 504-yards and four touchdowns. He should finish as a top-five tight end regardless of the format, and at this price it’s a pure steal. The 49ers are one of the tougher teams on tight ends giving up only 6.3 points to the opposing team.
The Patriots are favorites (11.5) on the road and the over/under is 51
Consider:
Zach Miller, TE CHI ($5,500)
The Chicago Bears will be without Alshon Jeffery which automatically opens up the passing option to Zach Miller. Jeffery will miss four games for violation of league substance abuse policy. So, his targets are going to have to go to Miller mostly.
Last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miller caught four passes for 32 yards, and most came in garbage time, but his seven targets were second-most on the team. He has four games where he has had double-digit points, and hasn’t caught a touchdown since week four, so he is due for some regression.
Miller is averaging eight targets per game in his last five contests and if Vegas is correct about favoring the Giants by seven points Jay Cutler is going to be forced to throw.
The Giants are favorites (7.5) on the road and the over/under is 43.5
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - October 1, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - September 24, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Two - September 17, 2017
