The Player or the Pick?
In this week’s edition of The Player or the Pick? I wanted to focus on a trio of rookie running backs who have experienced a bit of a dynasty value roller coaster over the course of their first several months in the league. In order to get a true comparison of how dynasty owners are feeling about these players, I pitted all three against the same pick, a late 2017 first rounder.
The first poll asks about the new starting running back for the Denver Broncos…
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Which would you prefer in dynasty leagues? #playerorthepick .
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 14, 2016
After the season-ending injury to starter CJ Anderson a few weeks ago, rookie back Devontae Booker instantly became a hot name in dynasty leagues. He was certainly not a player who was coming out of nowhere. Not only had he already been playing well, earning more snaps and carries on a weekly basis, but he was also highly regarded coming out of college.
Booker had a very successful career at Utah and many dynasty owners liked him enough to grab him anywhere between the late first round and the middle of the second round. As his role was set to expand, dynasty owners were projecting Booker as not only a valuable asset for the second half of the season, but as the long-term starter in Denver, with many giving up on Anderson altogether.
In the three weeks since Booker has taken over as the starter, he has produced games ranking him as the RB13, RB44 and RB18. In that middle game of week nine, Booker’s lackluster performance caused reports that little known back Kapri Bibbs could see more time moving forward. While that could prove true, it didn’t in week ten, when Booker rushed for 76 yards and caught a pair of passes for another 12 yards.
While Booker’s short tenure as the starter has not been overly impressive, he is still a solid option as a fantasy starter moving forward. For dynasty owners, that is evidently not enough to cause them to part with a late first round pick, as the pick was chosen by three-fourths of respondents, one of our widest margins in this series. For what it’s worth, I completely agree. With the state of the running back position overall, I would be unwilling to part with a first round pick for many backs at all, and certainly not a player I consider an average talent, like Booker.
Here’s the next rookie running back compared to a late first rounder:
Which would you prefer in dynasty leagues? #playerorthepick .
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 14, 2016
Like Booker, Bears rookie back Jordan Howard was a popular pick in the second round of spring dynasty rookie drafts and also like Booker and others, he’s had the chance to increase his value over the first ten weeks of the season. Following an early season injury suffered by Chicago’s starting back Jeremy Langford, Howard stepped in and took over. Langford missed weeks four through eight and over that span, Howard was the RB6 in PPR leagues, totaling 438 rushing yards and another 121 receiving yards. Howard had people forgetting about Langford and the success he had a season ago during his own surprising rookie season.
Howard actually reminds me a lot of Langford, not necessarily in his running style, but rather in his situation. He quickly unseated his team’s starter and many dynasty owners bought in and paid up for him at the wrong time. I have concerns that Chicago could continue to attempt to upgrade the position. Of course, considering the Bears many needs, including quarterback, they could choose to stick with the duo, which would extend Howard’s value.
For now, the majority of dynasty players responding are not ready to value Howard among the first round rookies that could be available late in the first round and again, I agree with them. Howard did receive a significantly larger percentage of the vote than Booker, telling me he is easily valued above Denver’s current starter. Given the state of the Bears offense and team in general, this is somewhat surprising to me.Â
Finally, one of the hottest names in dynasty leagues over the past few days is…
Which would you prefer in dynasty leagues? #playerorthepick
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 14, 2016
The season started slowly for Seattle rookie CJ Prosise. After being projected as an immediate contributor given the state of the Seahawks backfield, Prosise dealt with early injuries and the temporary breakout of Christine Michael. Other than a brief appearance in the season opener, Prosise didn’t play until week seven. In week eight, Prosise really got involved, especially in the passing game. In the past three games, Prosise has over 170 receiving yards and by week ten, he had earned the starting role.
Fast forward to this week and the Seattle coaching staff were confident enough in Prosise and the imminent return of Thomas Rawls to part ways with Michael. All of those goes to boost the dynasty value of Prosise and he was easily the most valuable of the three backs featured this week. Still, the majority of respondents were not willing to give up their chance at a prized rookie for the hot name. Once again, I’ll agree. Even though Prosise appeared in my first round ranks in last year’s class, I would still not be willing to give up a future top 12 pick for him. The reasoning is two-fold. First, I am not comfortable buying high on Prosise while we have yet to see how Seattle uses him alongside Rawls. We could learn a lot more about the future of this backfield over the next couple of weeks. Also, I am hesitant to spend first round capital on any back, outside of the elite tier. Instead, I’d prefer to spend a lesser pick on a veteran back.
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