Tuesday Transactions: Week Ten

Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint.  With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications.  As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories:  players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low.  The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so.  Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own, and if you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns.  But with ten weeks of data, and precious little remaining of the fantasy regular season, we can certainly formulate some strong opinions.

In the interest of transparency, here are the answers to my week eight questions:

1. Julio, OBJ and AB are all still good at football.
2. Yay for Mark Ingram rebound games!
3. Elite running backs keep elite-ing.
4. All Blount does is score touchdowns.  All Sproles does is catch passes.  All J-Stew does is disappoint, apparently.
5. See #12.
6. Jordan Reed is apparently now behind Vernon Davis (okay not really), Tyler Eifert has provided no actionable data.
7. Really, Alshon?
8. At least we have Cameron Meredith…
9. Value, value, value.
10. Well well well, that Seahawks offense is pretty good after all!
11. Nuk’s value is nuked, and you can’t run and (Carlos) Hyde.
12. Screw Flanders….

Onto the fallout from week ten!

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Buy Low

1. Breshad Perriman, WR BAL – Perriman just had the best game of his young career, going off for a line of 3-64-1.  It’s modest, for sure, but the fact remains he’s trending in the right direction.  He’s a minimal part of the game plan at the moment (4-5 targets in seven games), but with his skill set that’s enough to make the type of splash plays that drive young players’ prices up (see:  Parker, Devante).  Steve Smith isn’t getting any younger, Dennis Pitta remains a massive injury risk, and Mike Wallace could be a free agent after next season.  Perriman is the future.

2. Robert Kelley, RB WSH – There was a pretty amazing stat on Kelley, that he’s only been stuffed for a loss on two of 60 carries (3.3%).  In other words, consistency kills.  He also hasn’t put the ball on the ground, and has relegated supposed “breakout candidate” Matt Jones to the realm of the healthy scratches.  In his two games as a bell cow, he’s averaged 4.3 YPC against two of the league’s top-16 run defenses, with a touchdown to boot.  Essentially functioning as a poor man’s LeGarrette Blount, Kelley offers RB2 appeal for the rest of the season.

3. Kenny Britt, WR LA – In the midst of the best season of his career, Britt is up to 77 yards per game, with three receiving scores.  He’s established a high floor (six of nine games over 60 yards), sprinkling in a few WR1/WR2 games as well.  If Jared Goff goes under center it could ruin the magic, but Britt just turned 28, and in theory Goff is talented.  For the price of a firm handshake, you’re getting bankable weekly production.

Sell High

1. Ryan Mathews, RB PHI – Congratulations if your team is ravaged by injury, you had a ton of players on bye, or you blindly clicked at your roster while setting your lineup, because otherwise there’s no legitimate reason to have started Mathews.  One way or another it’s not going to continue.  I’d get out for a third round pick.

2. James Starks, RB GB – The inconvenient fantasy truth is that the Packers just aren’t a great offense anymore.  But don’t let that slip, as not everyone has caught on.  Someone in your league is going to see the label of “Green Bay starting running back” and believe he has fantasy value, but I believe he’ll be far too volatile to trust on a weekly basis.  Much like with Mathews above, I’d take a mid-to-late round pick to cash out.

3. Cameron Brate, TE TB – Brate had a great game in week ten, posting the most receptions and yards in any contest this season.  But otherwise, if he’s not scoring touchdowns there’s a good chance he’s not doing much for you.  At the tight end position, you can get replaceable production to replicate what Brate is doing.

Buy High

1. Doug Baldwin, WR SEA – The thing about Baldwin is he’s good at football.  The Seahawks offense is starting to look like the 2015 version, and Baldwin (along with Jimmy Graham) is the main benefactor.  Buying high is still probably only going to cost a second round pick, although Baldwin is one of those “tough to value” guys – he’s likely worth more to the team that owns him, as he has more fantasy value (i.e. scoring points) than dynasty value (because he’s “old” and had an unconventional career arc).  Regardless, he has the looks of a league winner, much like last year.

2. CJ Prosise, RB SEA – Along with Baldwin, I touched on Prosise last week as well.  Sure, Thomas Rawls is going to come back, but he’s more of a threat to Christine Michael than he is the rookie.  Prosise’s role in the passing game is secure, as it’s unique amongst Seattle’s running back corps.  If nothing else we’ll see him on third downs, with some early down work sprinkled in on an offense that’s starting to rely more on the pass.  I’d send a projected late 2017 first round pick without question.

3. Stefon Diggs, WR MIN – When healthy, all he does is catch passes.  Diggs obviously gained a ton of value in the off-season, but that cooled somewhat with the Vikings’ first round selection of Laquon Treadwell.  But while Treadwell has been warming the bench, Diggs has been the apple of Sam Bradford’s eye.  You might still be able to get him for a mid-first round pick, and I think that would be a steal.

Sell Low

1. Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN – Sometimes it’s just not going to happen.  I’ve been guilty of propping McKinnon up for the past few years, firmly believing he had what it took to replace Adrian Peterson as an every down ball carrier if the need arose.  And yet here we are in 2016, with the athletic freak posting subpar numbers once again and ceding time to the purple sloth Matt Asiata.  He’s either been hurt or ineffective, and at some point we just need to take the loss and admit the metrics were wrong.  I think we’ve hit that point with McKinnon.

2. Travis Kelce, TE KC – Kelce is currently the PPR TE5 on the year, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his weekly game log.  He’s been held under 60 yards in six of nine games, while only accumulating 58 targets and three scores.  The truth of it is that he’s closer to the TE12 (10.8 points above) than he is the TE3 (12.7 points behind).  In terms of PPR PPG he sits down at the PPR TE10, only 1.4 PPG ahead of the TE16.  He’s replaceable, but can still likely be used as a solid bargaining chip in trade talks based on name value alone.

3. Coby Fleener, TE NO – Those games against Atlanta and Carolina sure were great, weren’t they?  They were also Fleener’s only two good games of the season, as he hasn’t cleared 45 yards in any of the remaining seven contests.  Instead of forcing the ball to a bad player, quarterback Drew Brees has instead wisely relied on his trio of young wide receivers, along with the run game.  If Fleener’s “name value” can somehow get you around 10% of the way to a deal where you get an actually good player in return, he’ll have done good.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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