Our monthly dynasty mock drafts are nearing an end, meaning it is time to reveal the latest dynasty ADP. I nearly opted to skip the month of November for our dynasty mock series, but I’m glad I didn’t as the latest version of our ADP gathering tool brought about great change in many important players.
Here, I’ll be taking a round-by-round look at the newest data, along with sharing my thoughts about a few key players.
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- Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans has moved up to tie Antonio Brown for the second best ADP of all players, leapfrogging Julio Jones. Youngster Amari Cooper is also gaining on the vets. I won’t be surprised at all if Odell Beckham, Evans and Cooper are routinely holding down the top three spots of off-season startup drafts.
- The other thing that stands out in the first round is the four running backs coming off the board. Injuries and struggles have pushed some wideouts into the second round, but I don’t feel like Todd Gurley has earned his first round value through the first half of the season.
- Other than the top tight end, Rob Gronkowski coming off the board with the top pick of the second round and running back Lamar Miller somehow hanging around in the top 24, this round is dominated by wide receivers. The back half of the second round looks like a place I don’t want to be.
- The third round includes a good variety of players, including all four positions, veterans like receiver Demaryius Thomas and a pair of rookies as well, Sterling Shepard and Michael Thomas.
- Thomas and running back Melvin Gordon were among the biggest risers since our October mock drafts and I think they could both challenge for a spot in the second round if drafts were held today.
- There are three more rookies among the fourth round players, but the player to watch here is Browns breakout receiver Terrelle Pryor, who has gone from undrafted most of the off-season to a top 50 spot. Like Thomas and Gordon, I would not be shocked if Pryor pushed for a top 24 spot by the upcoming off-season.
- Despite the injury that cost him the entire off-season as well as the early portion of the season, tight end Tyler Eifert’s value has changed very little. As the third tight end drafted, I think there is a little bit of room to grow. On the other hand, veterans like Jordy Nelson and Brandon Marshall could really tumble in the upcoming months.
- There are some very interesting players to discuss here. First of all, I’m very surprised running back Spencer Ware lasted this long considering how he’s played this season and the health of veteran Jamaal Charles, who may have played his last down for Kansas City.
- A pair of wide receivers who have shown almost nothing at the NFL level come off the board in this round. Rookie Laquon Treadwell, who recorded his first career catch in Week Nine, sneaks into the top 50. I’m still on board with Treadwell and like the idea of buying low, if possible. Kevin White on the other hand, is not a player I trust. He’s essentially lost the first two seasons of his career and was already old compared to his fellow members of his draft class. He’s a player I’m avoiding altogether.
- Judging by the players in this sixth round, this is when the Zero RB drafters finally turn away from the wideouts and begin focusing some of their attention on runners. When building a group of “win now” type receivers, adding a veteran back like Doug Martin or DeMarco Murray in this range could be a league-winning play.
- For the past couple of seasons, the top four quarterbacks have flip-flopped in their specific order, but have always been relatively close in ADP. This month, the gap between Aaron Rodgers as the QB3 and QB4 Russell Wilson had opened up. In fact, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has moved up into the QB5 spot and is quickly closing in on Wilson.
- In round seven, there are a pair of post-hype wide receivers who have disappointed dynasty owners this season. Both Tyler Lockett and Dorial Green-Beckham were being drafted as high as the second round of startup drafts last off-season, but neither have made an impact this year. The good news is that now dynasty owners have an opportunity to buy them at a much more reasonable cost.
- This group includes another pair of receivers who hardly on anyone’s radar until the season began and they started producing. Chargers Tyrell Williams and Quincy Enunwa of the Jets have gone from waiver wire to top 50 receivers. While he has more competition for playing time and targets, I like Williams a bit more and can see him becoming a valuable dynasty asset.
- These November mock drafts began nearly two weeks ago when Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota was in the midst of his hot streak. If I know I have the option of using a sixth round pick on Carr or taking Mariota two rounds later, it’s a no-brainer in favor of the Titans signal caller.
- Dynasty owners didn’t take long to accept Packers Ty Montgomery as a top 50 wide receiver…err…or maybe that’s a top 25 running back? Either way, the impact Montgomery has made in recent weeks clearly has the attention of dynasty players and while he has been impressive, this rapid value gain may prove to be too much, too soon.
- Finally, I am shocked to see suspended Steelers receiver Martavis Bryant this high on the list. It is not safe to assume Bryant ever plays again, let alone returns as a fantasy relevant player. To take him over a franchise type quarterback like Mariota, a veteran receiver who can help teams win now in Larry Fitzgerald, or a young PPR specialist Duke Johnson is not something I can get behind.
- In this round, there is a great deal of unknown, which is understandable as we go deeper in the draft. At the top of this round is rookie quarterback Dak Prescott. While it seems unlikely, there is a non-zero chance he could be benched as early as next week. If that does happen as Tony Romo returns, Prescott immediately becomes my top “buy low” as we await his return.
- Packers running back Eddie Lacy is another question mark. After suffering a season-ending injury, there is a strong chance he’ll be playing for a new team next season. His valued has taken a big hit following that injury and it may not recover.
- Cardinals wide receiver JJ Nelson is another player who has only recently burst onto the scene. After back-to-back big games for the small speedster, he’s been elevated to a starter ahead of both John Brown and Michael Floyd. I love watching him play, but I am not confident a player his size (5’10”, 150 pounds) can be a consistent fantasy producer.
- If the past couple of rounds offer some hope among the unknown, the final round we’ll cover mostly fills dynasty owners with sadness. Breshad Perriman, Leonte Carroo, Devin Funchess and Jerick McKinnon are all players who have disappointed hopeful dynasty owners. It may not be fair to include Carroo in that group yet, but he has barely seen the field in his rookie season.
- Quarterback Matthew Stafford falling well outside of the top 100 players is just another piece of evidence why dynasty owners should be spending the majority of early draft picks on wide receivers and running backs.
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