The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Truth: Jay Ajayi
Let’s face it, people overreact to small sample sizes. This is especially true when it comes to the world of fantasy football. We have a very strong tendency to let what happens in just 60 minutes completely overpower and sometimes erase what we studied for months or what we’ve seen for years. Every once in a while we need to step back from the ledge, take a deep breath, and remember that extremes happen. Sometimes a perfect storm comes along and a player is great for a brief period before never being heard from again (Bryce Brown, I’m looking at you!). The exact opposite is of course true as well. There have been a ton of players who hit a little slump before leading more fantasy teams to the playoffs than beers consumed at a game in Lambeau Field!
That’s where I come in. For the last few years, I’ve been doing my best to be an objective voice of reason each and every week. I try to pick one or two “breakout” or slumping players each week. I take some time to objectively look at the good news, the bad news, and then give you what I hope is the truth about what you can expect moving forward. I’m not always right (then again, no one is!), but I like to think I’m right way more than I am wrong. I’m not afraid to say something unpopular or against the hype if it is what I believe. I was one of the first to tell you it is time to bail on Trent Richardson when the Browns traded him what seems like decades ago. I always felt Bryce Brown was a splash in the pan who wouldn’t hold dynasty value, and I was one of the voices telling you Allen Hurns was good enough to stay the starter opposite Allen Robinson. All three of those were rather unpopular takes at the time, but they are exactly what all of the evidence point towards. People just needed to step back and take it all in, and I’m just here to help you do that.
This time I’m going to step away from the receiver position and take a look at a rusher who has received an awful lot of attention over the last few weeks. A month ago he was a lower end handcuff who might not even be second in line. Now some are talking about him as a top ten dynasty running back. That’s quite the switch for just a few weeks. Where exactly does the truth lie? I’m here to give my opinion on Jay Ajayi.
Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
Last three games: 77 rushes for 529 yards and four scores. Five receptions for 24 yards.
Full Season at that pace: 410 carries for 2821 yards and 21 touchdowns.
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If we turn back the clock about two years, Ajayi was a favorite of many draft experts and fantasy players alike. There were an awful lot of people who felt he was a top five, if not top three running back in the draft class. Then in the weeks before the draft, news started to break about a potentially serious and chronic knee issue for the young back out of Boise State. Some brushed it off as just pre-draft misinformation, but there was clearly more to the story. Instead of Ajayi being drafted in the second round as a top three or top five rusher in the draft class, Ajayi slipped all the way down to the fifth round as the fourteenth running back off the board. It was quite the shock for the fantasy community!
His rookie season didn’t do anything to help his cause. He spent the start of the season injured before managing just 49 carries for 187 yards over the second half of the season as a part-time player behind Lamar Miller. He never had double digit touches in any of his games as a rookie, but his 3.8 yards per carry did show some promise.
When Miller moved on in free agency, people thought it was Ajayi’s chance. That hope was short lived though as the Dolphins made a very hard push to sign CJ Anderson and numerous other rushers. When that failed, the Dolphins turned to the draft and spent an early third round pick on Kenyan Drake. Then as the season approached, they signed Arian Foster to be their starter. Foster didn’t last very long, but even when he went down a committee approach took over in Miami. Ajayi quickly took the lead role and then exploded a few weeks ago, leading the league in every major rushing category over the last few weeks. Should we consider him a top player at the position or is this just another flash in the pan like Bryce Brown?
Good: One of the biggest feathers in Ajayi’s cap is even in his limited role last year and at the start of this year, he was fairly efficient when he was allowed to touch the ball. He’s currently sitting at 5.3 yards per carry average on his career. It dips down to 3.8 yards per carry if we eliminate the last few games, but it is still a decent number. If you go back to his college days, he averaged almost 5.6 yards per carry over his nearly 700 carries. We know that he can be productive when he is given the chance.
Another items in the plus column for Ajayi is who he was facing over the last three games. If he had put up huge numbers like that against San Francisco and Cleveland, then we could be a bit more skeptical. However, his big three games have been against Pittsburgh, Buffalo and the Jets. Buffalo isn’t a great defense, but Pittsburgh was top ten before they went against the Dolphins and the Jets were the best. Even great defenses can have a bad day, but the fact that Ajayi posted massive numbers against quality defenses is also very promising.
Bad: It is impossible to talk about the potential concerns for Ajayi without bringing up his health. He had a major knee injury back in 2011 where he tore his ACL and did some additional damage to other parts of his knee. Once he recovered, he didn’t seem to suffer an adverse effects while in college, but the pre-draft talk was all about a bone on bone condition. Our very own Dr. Peak gave us his insights on what this could mean for Ajayi’s future when the reports came out. The short version is that it puts Ajayi at a higher risk of needing more surgery, including potentially micro-fracture surgery, as well as potentially shortening his career by a few years.
Another major concern is where did this come from? The people who had the best opportunity to evaluate his talent and ability, the Dolphins, clearly weren’t sold on his ability to be the guy. After a full season of practices and watching him, instead of handing him the role they tried everything they could to find someone else to be the starter in 2016. When Foster went down, they went so far as to feature a committee attack which included players like Isaiah Pead. They clearly weren’t overly impressed with Ajayi if they let Pead steal carries.
Ugly Truth: There have been a ton of players who break out for one game and are never heard from again. There have also been a fair number who had back to back big games before proving they were just in the right place at the right time. The list of players with three big games in a row before fizzling out is a much, much shorter list. Ajayi’s chances of falling back into obscurity at this point in time are limited, but we do need to realize he can’t keep up his current pace. There has to be some regression back to the norm when we are talking about Ajayi’s rushing production and usage. The lack of usage in the passing game is also concerning. Should the Dolphins fall behind early, Ajayi’s playing time could see a major dip.
The long term outlook for Ajayi is also a concern for me. I don’t have a ton of faith in the Miami offense as a whole, and I don’t trust Ajayi’s knee to hold up. Ajayi is one of the best in the league at breaking tackles and yards after first contact, but that also means he is taking an awful lot of hits. This puts more and more stress on that knee, which is just tempting fate. I think a major issue with his knee is just a matter of when, not if.
Final Verdict: Ajayi definitely has talent, but he can’t keep up this pace. I also question his long term outlook. When I see him being talked about as a top 10 running back in dynasty rankings and ADP and a top 40-50 player overall, I can’t help but think this might be a good time to sell high on him. I view him more as a middle level RB2 with a high ceiling but a low floor, depending on the flow of the game. I also have major concerns about his longevity and the stability of the Dolphins as a whole. I think he’s just being a little bit overhyped right now.
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