IDP Report Card: Week Nine

Mo Brewington Posted On November 13, 2016

Many owners struggle to differentiate between IDP prospects once the well known targets are off the board. They get caught in the trap of checking the waiver wire for the past week’s top scorers and wind up adding a player whose performance in the previous game was an outlier, not a sign of sustainable future success. The result of this “dart-throwing” approach is often disappointment with the new player’s performance and even worse, losing games for our fantasy teams.

DLF’s IDP Report Card will aid owners who wish to see beyond the box score and focus on trends rather than events. Understanding when to avoid a pickup because the player’s perceived value is based more on circumstance than skill will help you improve your scoring efficiency and stack up wins. So, with a special thanks to Dan Meylor, proprietor of the offensive version of DLF’s Rookie Report Card, here is the Defensive version.

Week Nine

Player Evaluation #1

Ryan Shazier, LB PIT

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Most of the time, our IDP outlook is based solely on a player’s on-field performance. Other times, the circumstances surrounding that player weigh heavily on our decision to either invest, or divest. This is the case with the Steelers’ Ryan Shazier. There’s no doubt that Shazier is one of the most talented linebackers to come into the NFL in years. Yet, his speed and instincts have only produced a handful of strong IDP performances since entering the NFL in 2014. The problem with Shazier has been his inability to stay on the field.

As a rookie, he played in just nine games, missing parts of the year with separate injuries to his knee and ankle. In 2015, Shazier finished as LB32, despite playing only 12 games. If you rank the IDP linebackers of 2015 by their average points per game, Shazier jumps up to LB18. He jumped out of the gate in 2016 with two solid games, but, surprise! Another knee injury led to an aborted start in week three and ultimately, three more missed games.

In Shazier’s absence, Vince Williams posted two strong IDP games: a 13 tackle effort against the Chiefs, followed by an eight tackle day against the Jets. He added a sack in each of those contest to help boost his final point total. Williams returned to spot duty upon Shazier’s return to the line-up, in week seven. Shazier out-snapped his back-up by a count of 32 to 25. By week nine, Shazier was back in the line-up, full time, posting six tackles in the Steelers’ loss to the Ravens. Williams saw just three snaps last weekend.

With the constant threat of Shazier spending more time on your IR list, than the active roster, while Vince Williams puts up stellar IDP numbers in his stead, IDP owners have to wonder if Shazier is worth the long-term investment. None of this factors in Lawrence Timmons, the Steelers’ most veteran inside linebacker, who is in the final year of a contract that pays him north of $15 million dollars this season. As we try to plot out the players we want to hold onto moving into 2017, we need to get a feel for what the future of the Pittsburgh linebacker corp will look like.

The Steelers tend to place value on their veteran defenders. This philosophy helps maintain continuity in an organization that values its tradition. That’s why James Harrison is still in town this year. That’s why Lawrence Timmons could be, come 2017, albeit, at a much reduced price from his current $15M+ cap hit. Then there’s Tyler Matakevich, waiting in the wings for his shot at a starting job. Matakevich may need another training camp to bulk-up and acclimate to the game and system. Still, he’s a tough, heady football player, whose day will come. The 26-year-old Vince Williams is under contract through the 2018 season. He may be able to push for a starting job in 2017. Should Timmons wind up testing the free agent market, Williams’ odds of earning a starting job increase that much more.

Finally, what do we make of Ryan Shazier? He’ll enter the final season of his rookie deal in 2017. As a former first round draft pick, the Steelers have the option of extending his four year rookie contract for an additional fifth season. This move, however, must be made during this upcoming off-season, and comes with a relatively steep salary increase for Shazier. IDP owners will learn everything they need to know about the team’s commitment to their oft-injured ILB from their willingness, or reluctance to offer him this fifth-year extension. For the Steelers, that decision could hinge heavily on Shazier’s ability to stay healthy and contribute over the final eight games of this season.

Player Evaluation #1

Ryan Shazier Student Grade (Instructor’s Notes)

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Player Evaluation #2

Jake Ryan, LB GB

Jake Ryan’s snap count has been on the rise in the run-up to week nine. Against the Colts, Ryan posted 11 tackles, as he and rookie, Blake Martinez each played 81% of the snaps at inside linebacker. In his second season out of Michigan, Ryan is starting to put together the type of games we expected of him while stepping into the Packers’ void at ILB last season. Yet, this production has been sporadic. There have been weeks where Martinez has out-snapped him and out-produced him. It hasn’t been clear which player would take the lead in this contest long-term, and still isn’t.

Martinez has been the more consistent player, averaging four tackles per game. Ryan’s 17 solos over the past two weeks have helped boost his average to five solo tackles per contest. It must be mentioned that Ryan’s uptick in usage and output has coincided with the loss of Clay Matthews, who has not played in the Pack’s last two losses, against the Falcons and Colts. Matthews would typically be the linebacker in on third downs, if not for a hamstring injury which will keep him from this week’s game against the Titans, as well.

Ryan and Martinez each do an adequate job in defense of the pass, yet, both players consistently come off the field on third downs. That loss of the critical, typically passing down work, led to the two ILBs 81% snap count, last Sunday. Until he begins to stay in the game full-time, Ryan’s ceiling remains relatively low. For IDP purposes, he’s a great player to keep on your watchlist and a solid start in weeks like this one, where Matthews’ loss could lead to more opportunities. But we can not invest in part-time players and expect big-time results.

Player Evaluation #2

Jake Ryan Student Grade (Instructor’s Notes)

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