Rookie Report Card: Sterling Shepard and Jalin Marshall
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and covering how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2016 potential and long term upside.
The series continues with a look at a couple wide receivers from New York, Sterling Shepard and Jalin Marshall.
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Sterling Shepard, WR NYG
Week Nine Stats: three receptions, 50 yards, one touchdown reception (six targets)
Shepard came out of college with a reputation as a solid route runner with the ability to use his lightning fast quickness to create separation. Running the entire route tree well and catching everything thrown his way, he appeared to be one of the most polished pass catchers in the draft but was widely considered to be an afterthought to dynasty owners in rookie drafts after other receivers like Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and sometimes others.
When he was drafted by the Giants early in the second round though, Shepard slowly started moving up draft boards. Then he tore up the preseason and a case could be made that he should have been the first wide receiver taken in rookie drafts.
Since his sizzling preseason, Shepard has been a bit up and down. Let’s take a look at his numbers to this point.
| Week | Opponent | Receptions | Yards | Avg | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 1 |
| 2 | New Orleans | 8 | 117 | 14.6 | 0 |
| 3 | Washington | 5 | 73 | 14.6 | 1 |
| 4 | Minnesota | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 5 | Green Bay | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| 6 | Baltimore | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| 7 | LA | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| 9 | Philadelphia | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 1 |
| Totals | 34 | 384 | 11.3 | 3 |
After jumping out to a hot start, averaging 17.3 PPR fantasy points per game over the first three games, Shepard cooled considerably but has continued to show all the things that so many dynasty owners loved about him coming out of Oklahoma.
Despite his inconsistency of late, it’s hard to argue with the success Shepard had early in the season and at least to some extent, he’s continued to display his elite hands over his first season in the pros. His touchdown catch at the end of the first half against the Cowboys in week one showed great concentration and impressive hand eye coordination as he skied over a defender and hauled the pass in despite it being deflected. Although the catch may not be quite as eye catching as the diving grab he made in the preseason against the Dolphins, it’s another example of how special Shepard can be at the point of the catch.
Quickness of the line of scrimmage against off coverage is another thing that has jumps off the tape each time I’ve watched Shepard during his rookie season. Whether dominating underneath routes against the Saints back in week two or blasting past CB Dashaun Phillips in week three for a 23-yard touchdown out of the slot, he’s shown eyebrow raising explosion and the ability to change directions in a blink. Made to play in the slot, he’s a big play waiting to happen.
One of the knocks on Shepard coming out of Oklahoma was that due to his lack of size (5-foot-10, 194 pounds), he was likely to struggle off the line of scrimmage when facing press coverage and that has proved to be true at times. Even though defenders don’t always make solid contact on him, he appears rattled having a defender in his face which keeps him from getting into routes quickly and can remove his electrifying burst off the line of scrimmage. That has translated into a lack of sharp route running from Shepard over the last handful of weeks. His underneath drags and crosses have lacked burst and his vertical routes have taken too much time to develop.
On Sunday, Shepard actually posted another relatively lackluster performance though his fantasy day was saved by a blown coverage that turned into a 32-yard touchdown. Shepard took contact on the top of his route and showed good balance to continue down the field but the Eagles let him run free in the secondary and Shepard hauled in the pass for the score. Other than that play, his route running was once again very average which is cause for slight concern as we look forward.
Overall, it appears NFL defenses have caught on to Shepard after a great start to his career. Teams are being more physical with him and forcing him to take time to get into his route which has affected his ability to get open and hurt his fantasy production. Although the less than stellar play of Eli Manning certainly hasn’t helped, he needs to improve at beating the press and the Giants need to make an adjustment to give him more opportunities for a free release off the line of scrimmage. Running him in motion and stacking him with another wide out would go a long way to giving him more room to make plays. With that said however, counting on Ben McAdoo and his staff to do anything that makes sense looks to be a futile exercise.
Despite routinely facing man coverage against the second or third best cover man the defense has due to playing opposite of Odell Beckham Jr., he’s struggled to get open which makes it difficult to trust him as a fantasy starter. Therefore, In the short term, Shepard can’t be seen as anything more than a WR4/flex play and that’s only in good matchups.
Despite the concerns that have been brought to light recently, Shepard still has strong WR2 upside and a pretty high floor in the long term. It appears that NFL coaching staffs have made adjustments to his strengths and he simply needs to learn how to be a more well-rounded receiver which is absolutely doable considering his skill set.
As dynasty owners, we’ve been spoiled by recent rookie wide outs looking polished and putting up big numbers early in their careers. Players like Beckham and Amari Cooper are the exception, not the rule however. Shepard just needs some time to develop and if his owner starts to panic at his lackluster numbers – particularly if this continues over the next couple weeks before the trading deadline – savvy owners should send an offer and hope to steal him away while looking towards a breakout 2017.
Jalin Marshall, WR NYJ
Week Nine Stats: three receptions, 59 yards, one touchdown receptions (four targets)
I wasn’t very high on Marshall as an NFL prospect during draft season. I actually touched on him in the Jets’ Draft Review with the following.
“Marshall was a highly touted high school player but never lived up to expectations in his three seasons at Ohio State. Then he made the head scratching decision to leave school with two years of eligibility left.
At 5’-10”, 200 pounds and with his shiftiness, he’ll have to work out of the slot as a pro which is a position that isn’t utilized much by the Jets. Having never had a 40-catch season and never reaching 500 receiving yards in a campaign, Marshall wasn’t able to show he had the chops to be a quality Big Ten receiver. It’s very questionable that he’ll be able to do it in the NFL.”
Nothing has really changed for me since I wrote that.
Marshall is extremely unpolished as a route runner and has shaky hands. He’s had some modest success including the 18-yard touchdown he caught on Sunday against the Dolphins where he ran a sharp post route, getting the defensive back and his heels and shaking him easily at the top of his route before hauling in the laser from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
All things told, Marshall is still buried on the Jets’ depth chart and the team has multiple question marks including who the future quarterback is and how much the Jets will use more than their top two weapons on the perimeter.
Hardly worth a roster spot in even a moderately deep league, Marshall will need at least one more injury to the Jets’ receiving corps to have short term value and will need to drastically improve as a route runner and become much more dependable catching the ball in order to have any long term value. There are better options for the final roster spot on a dynasty team.
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- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
