The Player or the Pick?

Ryan McDowell

This week in ‘The Player or the Pick?’ I asked respondents to take a deeper look at three wide receivers who have been outperforming expectations through the first half of this season. There is no denying their respective value is climbing, but just how much? That’s what I tried to find out.

Let’s take a look at the first poll.

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The first poll pits Saints rookie receiver Michael Thomas against a mid-first round pick in 2017. This may seem like an obvious call for some since Thomas was himself a mid-first round selection in the majority of drafts just a few months ago. He certainly has not done anything to lose value. In fact, he’s performed as a top 24 wide receiver in four of seven games this season. Considering his status as a rookie and competing with Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and Coby Fleener for targets in the pass happy Saints offense, this is very impressive.

With that high level of production and already giving dynasty owners more than they expected, Thomas’ value is on the rise. He entered the league in the second tier of rookie receivers behind Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman. None of that trio has been able to gain any traction due to injury or simply underperforming.

In the end, Thomas ran away with the poll, earning over two-thirds of the vote in one of our larger gaps. This makes it clear if you want Thomas on your squad, it will cost more than just a random future first rounder. That also means it is probably not the time to buy as I expect Thomas to eventually hit a rookie wall. He could also potentially be had at a reduced price once 2017 rookie fever in is full effect this off-season.

Our next poll was a much closer competition:

If you could acquire a young wide receiver on a pass heavy offense that is already producing as the WR15 for just an early second round rookie pick, wouldn’t you make that deal without much thought? Evidently for the majority, the answer is no. Redskins second-year slot man Jamison Crowder has been Mr. Consistent for quarterback Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense all season, but in the past two games, with DeSean Jackson banged up and Josh Doctson’s rookie season officially over, Crowder has put up big time numbers. Crowder has back-to-back 100+ yard games and is seeing team-leading targets over the past two weeks.

Matched against an early second round pick proved to be a fair perception of Crowder’s current value and while most sided with the pick, it was close. Making the decision to buy Crowder is not as easy as I made it sound earlier, clearly. If it was, everyone would be doing it. Crowder is a slot receiver, not the type player who will consistently serve as his team’s top option in the passing game. While I am not a Doctson fan, it is fair to assume he gets the first crack at being the man in the 2017 Redskins offense. If one or both of Jackson or Pierre Garcon stick around, along with target hog tight end Jordan Reed, things are suddenly very messy. Essentially what I’m saying is things have fallen perfectly into place for Crowder to put up these numbers over recent weeks, but I’m not ready to commit to him as a weekly fantasy starter.

If I’m in the fairly rare situation of contending, yet also needing one more starter to make my push towards the playoffs, shipping off a second round pick for Crowder is an easy call, but in almost any other situation, I might be fielding offers for the former Duke Blue Devil.

The final poll was another landslide:

After toiling away in the San Francisco offense for a couple of years, wide receiver Michael Crabtree crossed the bay to join the upstart Oakland Raiders. All he did in his first season with the Raiders was match career high marks for receptions (85) and touchdowns (nine) while outplaying the Raiders first round pick Amari Cooper. Crabtree is again producing at a very high level and is currently the WR4 in PPR leagues, just one spot behind his teammate, Cooper. Crabtree is on pace to set new career highs in targets, receptions, touchdowns, receiving yards and fantasy points as the Raiders offense is blossoming and has suddenly become one of the top teams to watch on Sundays.

Of course, the downside for dynasty owners is Crabtree’s age (he turned 29 at the beginning of the season), but his performance more than makes up for that for currently contending dynasty teams.

When matching Crabtree with a late first round pick, I thought this poll could be a landslide in Crabtree’s favor and instead it went the other way. Much like Crowder, buying any 29 year-old is not the right move for every team, but for a contender who is expecting to pick late in each round, the next year and a half of Crabtree’s production could make a huge difference between winning a championship or falling short.

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ryan mcdowell