The Player or the Pick?

Ryan McDowell

Last week, I debuted this new series based on a simple concept, choosing between a current NFL player and a future dynasty rookie pick. This idea though, and the results of my weekly polls can tell us all a lot about how both players and picks are currently being valued, and how we can take advantage of those valuations.

This week, I chose to focus on players who are off to surprisingly hot starts through the season’s first four weeks. This is really a continuation of last week’s debut focused on Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Seattle running back Christine Michael and Texans rookie receiver Will Fuller. Remember, each of these polls favored the pick over the player. That could be a sign that I did a poor job of estimating those players’ respective value, or maybe just that we as a dynasty community are overly infatuated with acquiring additional rookie draft capital.

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Here’s the first poll for this week:

I have to admit, I didn’t see this coming. Terrelle Pryor is the Browns top offensive threat and it’s not even close. Just before the season started, I explained on an episode of the Dynasty Blueprint that while I had been impressed with Pryor’s transition from quarterback to wide receiver, I saw little opportunity for him as he would be a fifth option in a poor passing offense. Since then, rookie Corey Coleman suffered an injury, Josh Gordon has a reported relapse and left the team and tight end Gary Barnidge is showing last year was a bit of a fluke.

All of those factors have collided and made Pryor the WR16 in fantasy leagues through the first month. That rank is boosted up by an amazing all-around performance in week three, but Pryor has been consistently productive for Cleveland and his fantasy owners. He’s also eighth among all wide receivers in targets, so this is not likely to change anytime soon. The only factor that could slow him down somewhat is the return of Coleman, but there has been little said about when that might happen.

I think Pryor’s dynasty value is somewhat capped by his age, since he’s already 27 and is just now experiencing his “breakout” season. Actually, he’s similar in that way to Barnidge, who played out of his mind a season ago, but could only climb so high in rankings and ADP, considering he was already 30 years old.

I have yet to see any dynasty trade which involved someone surrendering a future first round pick for Pryor, so I pegged his current value at an early second and the results were somewhat overwhelming. Not only did Pryor walk away with the poll, but many responded to my query on Twitter suggesting this was an easy choice, or that they owned Pryor in their leagues and would never give him up for a mere second round pick.

After seeing some of the feedback on the Pryor poll, I wanted to gauge the market on a running back who has been similarly impressive early this season.

Despite winning the starting running back job for the Falcons as a rookie last season, the 2015 year ended up being almost a waste for Tevin Coleman as Devonta Freeman took the job and ran with it, finishing as the top scoring fantasy back.

This off-season, there were multiple reports that Atlanta planned to get Coleman more involved and that has certainly proved true. Through four weeks, Coleman is the RB8 in PPR leagues, thanks in large part to his emergence as the team’s pass-catching back. Coleman is averaging over four receptions and 45 receiving yards per game, on top of his rushing production.

Unlike Pryor, both age and his team play in Coleman’s favor, but based on the poll results, there are still some doubters as a large majority preferred the late first round rookie pick over Coleman. I felt like that was a fair range of value to assign to Coleman, but I can envision a few reasons why this poll was so lopsided. First of all, many dynasty players are not interested in using first round picks on running backs outside of the elite tier. I understand this mindset and have often recommended spending down on the position, shopping for veterans or pass-catching backs who might be cheaper.

Also, the incoming class of rookies, especially running backs, has a two-fold impact on this poll. First, there is the growing fear of acquiring running backs now only to see their value smashed by an incoming rookie. With Freeman and Coleman on board, I have a hard time seeing the Falcons using a valuable pick on the position, but that concern no doubt plays a part in this choice. Also, owners are clearly not willing to part with a top 12 pick in fear of missing out on this draft class, which is expected to be one of the best in years.

My final takeaway from this poll really has nothing to do with Coleman specifically, but is more about the way we value future draft picks in general. I don’t think the vast difference in the previous two polls accurately represents the value difference between the two players in question. While I value Coleman over Pryor, I can see other dynasty players feeling differently. Nonetheless, they should be considered close in value. Our recent October dynasty ADP has Pryor with an ADP of 72, while Coleman comes in at 81. My issue is each of these polls resulted in far different results that we can only surmise has more to do with the picks than the players. Should there really be much difference between a late first round pick and an early second rounder? I think not, but the first round picks have some kind of unexplainable value that we continue to perpetuate, myself included. I know first round picks are not getting cheaper anytime soon, but this astonishing value gap between picks can be exploited by acquiring second round picks at a much cheaper asking price than a late first rounder. I know that will be my goal in the coming weeks. After all, we know all picks gain value as the rookie draft nears, so even if you don’t like the options in the second round, you should be able to turn around and flip them for something of value.

Here’s the last poll of the week:

The final poll was the closest of the short series so far with 55% of the respondents siding with Jets surprise starter Quincy Enunwa, the WR29 on the season. Despite playing alongside veterans like Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, Enunwa has held his own, averaging nearly 14 fantasy points per game. With Decker’s health in question, Enunwa could play an even larger role going forward.

While we seemingly don’t consider an early second round pick all that close to a first rounder, I think many view a late second rounder as a throwaway pick. Just like Pryor, I received quite a few comments suggesting that the choice of Enunwa over a rookie outside of the top 20 was an easy one. It seems that dynasty owners love their breakout wide receivers.

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ryan mcdowell