FanDuel Bargains: Week Seven
Editor’s Note: We’re going to be bringing you an unprecedented amount of content this year during the season, mostly dynasty related. However, seeing the explosion of DFS games, we’ll also be ramping up our Daily coverage, similar to last season. Even if you don’t play in DFS games, these articles can help you in making lineup decisions or judge current value of your dynasty assets.
Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.
Keep in mind that these suggestions are made for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments with more than 50 participants where players are looking for bargains to fill out their lineups after already inserting their “studs” for the week. Many of them are risky plays and shouldn’t necessarily be considered in head-to-head or 50/50 games. Rankings courtesy of ESPN.
Quarterback
Alex Smith, QB KCC ($7,200)
Looking at Alex Smith once again, this time with a little higher price tag from last week at $6,800. Last week versus the Oakland Raiders he completed 19 of 22 for 224 yards (86.4 completion percentage). He still had a solid rating without throwing a touchdown (109.1)
This week he faces an easier defense in the New Orleans Saints. The Saints give up more points than a rigged pinball machine to quarterbacks (19.2) which rank 23rd in the NFL. Toss in the fact that they are overall one of the worst defenses as they rank 31st in overall defense and 31st versus the pass.
Alex Smith is averaging 14.7 FanDuel points per game and has twice exceeded that average in his five games played. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers he scored 18.68 and against the Chargers he put up his highest score of 29.02 points.
The Chiefs are favorites (6.5) at home and the over/under is 50.5
Consider:
Kirk Cousins, QB WAS ($7,200)
Last week Kirk Cousins completed 18 of 34 passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns with one interception against the Philadelphia Eagles. His two touchdowns went to wide receiver Jamison Crowder and tight end Vernon Davis. His interception did go for a pick-six however. Cousins has three games where he has thrown for multiple touchdowns and with the running game working it has relieved pressure off his shoulders. The last three weeks, the signal caller has an 8:3 touchdown to interception ratio.
The Redskins will now face off against the Detriot Lions who give up the most points to quarterbacks (23.5) in the league. They have given up 25+ points to three of the five games faced (Indianapolis, Green Bay, Los Angeles) while holding Philadelphia and Tennessee to just 18. The Lions also rank 25th overall and 23rd against the pass. While, Cousins has averaged 16.8 FanDuel points per game. His nine touchdowns (tenth) and 1,695 passing yards (sixth) while his completion percentage 65.04 (19th) and interceptions 6 (sixth) need work. I can see Cousins getting at least two touchdowns and close to 300-yards making a great buy for your DFS team. The negative is owners going with Cousins against Detroit in their contrarian plays.
The Lions are favorites (1.5) at home with an over/under of 49.5
Flex Bargain:
Colin Kaepernick, QB SFO ($6,000)
The one thing must keep in mind about Colin Kaepernick is it doesn’t matter how he does in the passing completion department. For example, last week against Buffalo, he completed just 13 of 29 passes (44 percent) and scored a touchdown (18.1 FanDuel points). His accuracy is not going to get much better, but keep in mind three things, first the role in Chip Kelly’s system, his potential of running the ball, and DFS price tag.
The Buccaneers give up 16.4 quarterback points per game which is 18th in the NFL. Their overall defense (20th) and passing defense reflect the middle of the pack (20th). It’s been an interesting story for their passing defense. They were bad against Matt Ryan (334-2 tds) and Carson Palmer (304-3 tds), but put a hold on Case Keenum (190-2 tds), Paxton Lynch (170-1 td), and Derek Anderson (278-0). I can see a Lynch type performance from Kaepernick this week.
The Buccaneers are favorites (2.0) on the road and the over/under is 46.
Running back
T.J. Yeldon, RB JAC ($6,600)
T.J. Yeldon is a part time back who will share duties with Chris Ivory. At this point in the season he is only averaging 8.7 yards per carry but as long as Ivory is healthy he will have no shot at any goal line carries, so why do I have him here? He plays the Oakland Raiders who give up enough yardage to give plenty of points to both. Oakland is 27th in the NFL in giving up points to the opposing running back (21.5). Also, Oakland ranks at the bottom of the league in overall defense and passing.
Yeldon can also be utilized in the passing game allowing him to have a higher ceiling in this matchup. He has 19 this season which is good for 11th for running backs. Last week he rushed for 21 yards and caught a pass last week against the Bears.
The Jaguars are favorites (1.0) at home and the over/under is 47.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB TBY ($5,600)
What does a team do when they don’t have anyone to turn too except one of the last remaining running back on the active depth chart and a bye? They give him 35 touches and with the Rodgers getting rest from the bye week expect another truckload. The Bucs face the San Francisco 49ers this week. The 49ers defense has struggled against running backs allowing a 100-yard rusher in five straight games and a 130-yard performer in three straight. In result they are ranked 29th against running backs, and allowing 23.3 points per game.
Consider:
Duke Johnson, RB CLE ($5,300)
The Bengals are the much better team and should control this game. The passing game will open up more due to this and lead to more opportunities for Duke Johnson. Look for the garbage time duties. Last week, he caught four balls on six targets for 56 yards and a touchdown resulting in 15.4 points. The Bengals just happen to have allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs already as well.
The Bengals are favorites by 10 points and over/under 45
Mike Gillislee, RB ($5,300)
Mike Gillislee will finally get his opportunity to start the game. LeSean McCoy is out with injury and the Bills run the ball, as they are the third-most run-heavy team with a 1.02 pass-to-run ratio. One way to see what Gillislee may look like is McCoy’s numbers. He has been averaging 17.3 carries and four targets per game.
Mike Gillislee will face the Miami Dolphins and this match-up is tasty. The Dolphins allow 147 rushing yards per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL and they give up 14.5 points a game to opposing running backs. Surprisingly this is 12th overall, but look for Gillislee to maximize the passing game and the yards gained. Gillislee had 12 points last week, and is primed for an even better performance this week.
The Bills are favorites by four points and over/under 44
Flex Bargain:
Mike Davis, RB SFO ($4,500)
Mike Davis will be stepping in for the injured Carlos Hyde and the opportunity presents itself in two ways. First, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense ranks 20th overall and 16th against the run. Second, Chip Kelly’s system wants to run and run. Third, is his price tag. He is at the bottom of the food chain as for pricing goes in FanDuel’s salary structure.
The 49ers are the heaviest when it comes to the run game, where they have a one pass/run ratio, regardless of their record (1-5) and how often they are behind in the game. As with Mike Gillislee and LeSean McCoy we need to see what Mike Davis could be looking at as for touches. In three of the five games Hyde has 20+ carries and would have matched that last week if he didn’t get injured.
Tampa Bay allows the eighth most fantasy points per game to running backs, giving up 20 points per game.
The Buccaneers are favorites by two points and over/under is 46
Wide Receiver
Allen Hurns, WR JAC ($6,000)
It’s a fire sale at FanDuel for Jacksonville Jaguars. Someone behind the controls is pimping the stacking business because it’s the only way to explain these low prices against such an inferior defense. Oakland gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (25.8). The issue is that Hurns is getting overshadowed by Allen Robinson and also Marqise Lee is now a hoard grabber.
Hurns has slowly seen an uptick in production with 9 and 11 points on FanDuel over the last two weeks and was targeted a team-high 11 times this past week in Chicago. If his production continues he should exploit the league’s last-ranked pass defense.
Jaguars are favorites by one point and over/under of 47.5
Pierre Garcon, WR WAS ($6,100)
With Jordan Reed out with another concussion injury this opens up the opportunity for players such as Pierre Garcon. He was targeted 11 times last week which led the team and is averaging over seven per game. Also, good news is that he will be facing the Detroit Lions and their 25th ranked overall defense and 23rd against the pass. They are sixth worst against fantasy wide receivers giving up 25.8 fantasy points and players such as Case Keenum, Carson Wentz, and Brian Hoyer has all taken advantage of their poor secondary.
The Lions are favorites (1.5) at home with an over/under of 49.5
Consider:
Anquan Boldin, WR DET ($5,900)
I like Anquan Boldin in the same vein that I like Pierre Garcon. Boldin still has the hands to catch almost any pass and even though his ability to gain yards after the catch has dissipated he still can get it going. He also has teamed up with Matt Stafford and gained his trust very easily. Boldin has been targeted 34 times over the last three games and has brought in 26 of those passes one of them being a touchdown.
I can see him heavily involved with the Lions missing Eric Ebron and look for him to catch five balls and a touchdown.
The Lions are favorites (1.5) at home with an over/under of 49.5
Flex Bargain:
Kendall Wright, WR TEN ($5,000)
Kendall Wright will be the top option against the Indianapolis Colts this week. Even though Vontae Davis has shut down number one receivers, Wright will line up in the slot for most of the game and should avoid Davis all game.
The Colts are sixth toughest against receivers this season as they are giving up only 18.7 points, but the defense gives up points as they are 30th overall and 29th against the pass.
The Titans are favorites (4) at home with an over/under of 48
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry, TE SDC ($5,800)
Hunter Henry is showing the Chargers that they can safely part ways with future Hall of Fame tight end Antonio Gates. Over the last three weeks Henry has put up 17, 14, and 14 FanDuel points and with the Atlanta Falcons giving up the fourth most points to tight ends it should be an outstanding performance for the rookie. Philip Rivers has his eye on Henry as Gates has also been a participant on the field, except it’s Henry scoring a touchdown in the last trio of games. Look for another touchdown from Henry.
Consider:
Jack Doyle, TE IND ($4,700)
Dwayne Allen blew up his ankle last week and will be out when the Indianapolis Colts take on the Tennessee Titans. The Colts like to use their tight end in the passing game and Jack Doyle will be the new number one. Andrew Luck will target him often. Thirty-one percent (35-of-112) of Luck’s career TD passes have gone to the tight end, and Doyle has accounted for three of Luck’s 11 touchdowns this season. With the two tight end set Indianapolis runs, look for Doyle to play very close to all offensive snaps.
Jack Doyle is in a great spot, not only is his price tag low, and Andrew Luck likes to go in that direction, but the Titans defense gives up the points (5.5) and is 13th toughest against tight ends. Doyle is averaging close to four targets a game, and that should increase. Look for the 5-50-1 game.
The Titans are favorites (4) at home with an over/under of 48
Flex Bargain:
Vernon Davis, TE WAS ($4.500)
Vernon Davis blew it up and scored 12 points as Jordan Reed suffered a concussion. Reed is still out of action and Davis should continue to rack up the points. With Reed out last week, Davis saw 97 percent of the offensive plays and Kirk Cousins loves his tight ends.
With the Detroit Lions giving up around six receptions, 60 yards, and a little over a touchdown per game, Davis could be in for a big day.
The Lions are favorites (1.5) at home with an over/under of 49.5
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - October 1, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - September 24, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Two - September 17, 2017
