Dynasty Stock Market: In-Season Rookie Mocks

Ryan McDowell

We’re now six weeks into the NFL regular season, not to mention four weeks of pre-season along with an endless amount of off-season and training camp reports. Needless to say, we have a pretty good idea about the 2016 rookie class. Over the past few days, I put together a pair of dynasty rookie mock drafts to see how player value has changed after the first several weeks of the season.

I don’t think two drafts is enough data to provide us with reliable ADP, so instead, I will note where each player was drafted in both of the drafts, along with a look at the player’s pre-season rookie draft ADP.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

Mock 1: 1.01

Mock 2: 1.01

Pre-season ADP: 1.01

Elliott has lived up to all of the pre-season hype and is clearly well-deserving of the top overall spot. If anything, he’s widened the gap between himself and all other rookies since off-season rookie drafts.

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Corey Coleman, WR CLE

Mock 1: 1.02

Mock 2: 1.03

Pre-season ADP: 1.03

Coleman had some bad luck with a broken bone is his hand, but showed enough in his two games, including a two touchdown game in Week Two, to make dynasty players who invested an early pick in the Browns receiver still feel confident. Recent reports show Coleman should be back soon.

Will Fuller, WR HOU

Mock 1: 1.03

Mock 2: 1.04

Pre-season ADP: 2.02

One of the biggest risers early this season is the Texans Fuller. Many dynasty players, myself included, were concerned about Fuller’s hands coming out of Notre Dame. He’s shown some issues, but also some major deep threat ability.

Sterling Shepard, WR NYG

Mock 1: 1.04

Mock 2: 1.06

Pre-season ADP: 1.04

The Giants rookie slot receiver Shepard has essentially maintained his pre-season value. He started the season out on fire, but has slowed in recent weeks as his teammate Odell Beckham is heating up. This who spent a top four pick on Shepard have to feel pretty good about that call.

Michael Thomas, WR NO

Mock 1: 1.08

Mock 2: 1.05

Pre-season ADP: 1.06

The Saints rookie Thomas has played a larger role in the New Orleans offense than most expected. He’s He’s matched his teammate Brandin Cooks with three scores and has more catches, but less yardage, than Cooks.

Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN

Mock 1: 1.07

Mock 2: 1.07

Pre-season ADP: 1.02

Now we’re getting to the disappointing portion of the new rookie drafts. After being a top three pick in nearly every rookie draft out there, Treadwell has barely even seen the field. Despite some injuries to players ahead of him on the depth chart, Treadwell has yet to earn a pass target. This will be a lost season for the Ole Miss star, but he’s still worthy of a mid-round selection based on these mocks.

Devontae Booker, RB DEN

Mock 1: 1.05

Mock 2: 1.12

Pre-season ADP: 2.01

After being a popular target in the late first/early second round range of off-season rookie drafts, Booker’s stock is climbing. I have to admit, I was surprised to see Booker come off the board as early as 1.05. He is taking some touches away from CJ Anderson, but I think the late first is a more appropriate spot to grab him.

wentzCarson Wentz, QB PHI

Mock 1: 2.03

Mock 2: 1.02

Pre-season ADP: 3.09

Eagles rookie quarterback Wentz has definitely gained quite a bit of dynasty value since the off-season. He went from injured backup to starter very quickly with the trade of Sam Bradford to Minnesota and he started the season well, but has slowed down in the past couple of weeks. As for his current value, I think the early second is a much more reasonable spot to select Wentz. Taking him early in the first is not advisable, to say the least.

Dak Prescott, QB DAL

Mock 1: 1.09

Mock 2: 1.09

Pre-season ADP: 3.08

We’ve seen back-to-back quarterbacks with Wentz and now the Cowboys Prescott. Like Wentz, Prescott has gained a huge amount of dynasty value since the season began, but Prescott has the pressure of a returning Tony Romo to keep him pressing. Even if the Cowboys do somehow go back to their veteran, Prescott looks like the quarterback of the future for Dallas. I’m still not sure I’d spend a first round pick on Prescott, but drafters in each mock agreed the 1.09 was the ideal spot to select him.

Jordan Howard, RB CHI

Mock 1: 1.06

Mock 2: 2.01

Pre-season ADP: 2.05

There were plenty of reasons to doubt Jeremy Langford coming into the season and now that he is hurt, Howard has capitalized. He’s seen his value increase as a result, though there seems to be a wide range of opinions on how much dynasty value he carries. Just as we did with Langford, I think it is fair to question if Howard is the long-term answer for the Bears. Again, the late first/early second seems like the sweet spot for him based on what we know now.

Josh Doctson, WR WAS

Mock 1: 1.10

Mock 2: 1.10

Pre-season ADP: 1.05

Another player who has seen their stock drop is Doctson, the Redskins first round choice. After overcoming an off-season injury to get back on the field early this season, Doctson suffered a setback and has again missed multiple games. There has even been some concern that he could land on the injured reserve list eventually. I was never a believer in Doctson, so the late first round value he currently holds, based on these mocks, is where I’d be comfortable selecting him, with or without the injury.

Hunter Henry, TE SD

Mock 1: 2.01

Mock 2: 1.07

Pre-season ADP: 2.12

After years of disappointment, I finally decided I would be avoiding all rookie tight ends. Henry is making me regret that choice. He’s played well all season but really broke out with a Thursday night game against Denver last week. With Antonio Gates clearly slowing down, Henry is already in the conversation to be considered a top five dynasty tight end. If he is being valued as an early second round pick, I’d jump at that.

Derrick Henry, RB TEN

Mock 1: 1.11

Mock 2: 1.11

Pre-season ADP: 1.07

We have yet to really see the Henry portion of the Titans Exotic Smashmouth offense. While veteran DeMarco Murray has been running wild, Henry’s touches have been limited. I am still a big fan of Henry and will be taking any opportunity I get to “buy low” if his owners are becoming concerned. He’s still coming off the board in the late first round after being a mid-first rounder in the majority of rookie drafts last off-season.

Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL

Mock 1: 1.12

Mock 2: 2.04

Pre-season ADP: 1.11

I’m not really sure what to expect from the Ravens rookie back Dixon. After missing some time early this season with an injury, most expected him to come in and claim the starting job for Baltimore. About that same time, veteran Terrance West started playing the best ball of his career. For now, Dixon will have to wait his turn and his value is basically holding steady.

Tyler Boyd, WR CINboyd

Mock 1: 2.02

Mock 2: 2.03

Pre-season ADP: 1.08

While our drafters were on the same page with Boyd, the Bengals rookie receiver, I was quite surprised he fell this far. In both drafts, he lasted until the early second round. Boyd has seen plenty of playing time early on for Cincinnati, but has yet to break through with a big game for the Bengals. If dynasty players are already doubting Boyd, who was routinely a mid-first round pick, I’ll be buying.

CJ Prosise, RB SEA

Mock 1: 2.04

Mock 2: 2.06

Pre-season ADP: 1.12

Seattle rookie running back Prosise hasn’t seen the field since Week One, so it’s understandable to see his value drop a bit from the late first round range he was being drafted in the off-season. All of the reasons that made us grab him at that spot are still present though, so he’s another player I would recommend making advances on in trade talks.

Tajae Sharpe, WR TEN

Mock 1: 2.05

Mock 2: 2.07

Pre-season ADP: 1.09

Sharpe went from sleeper to star to bust in a matter of a couple of months and his value swings have reflected all of that. After being selected in the third or fourth rounds of early rookie drafts, he quickly climbed the boards as he earned a starting job. Now, after his early season performances have faded, he’s back to a mid-second round option and falling. For now, Sharpe has to be considered a hold as I don’t think many are buying.

DeAndre Washington, RB OAK

Mock 1: 2.06

Mock 2: 2.08

Pre-season ADP: 2.03

Many dynasty players expected Washington to earn a quick role playing behind Latavius Murray and that is just what has happened. He hasn’t really overwhelmed in that role though, so his value is holding steady in the mid-second round range. Once he does have that big game, I’ll be selling Washington for a future pick in this same range.

Paul Perkins, RB NYG

Mock 1: 2.09

Mock 2: 2.05

Pre-season ADP: 2.11

Perkins wasn’t expected to see much action this season, but injuries to veterans Shane Vereen and Rashad Jennings forced the former UCLA back into the lineup. He’s not done much in limited opportunity, hence the drop in his value. The Giants running game is still a disaster and I expect Perkins to be part of a committee backfield next season.

Paxton Lynch, QB DEN

Mock 1: 3.01

Mock 2: 2.02

Pre-season ADP: 3.11

After an injury to starter Trevor Siemian, the rookie Lynch got his chance to start in Week Five. Things didn’t go so well as the Broncos lost and Lynch looked lost at times. That’s not really a knock or a surprise, considering he’s a rookie starting his first game. Barring another injury, we might see Siemian keep that job, making Lynch a solid buy low target for the remainder of the season.

Leonte Carroo, WR MIA

Mock 1: 2.07

Mock 2: 2.10

Pre-season ADP: 1.10

The knock on Carroo following the draft centered around his situation with Miami, considering he’d be playing behind both Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. That has been one of the factors slowing the rookie this season, as well as the general struggles of the Dolphins offense. Carroo has just two receptions on the season and has fallen nearly a full round since the season began. I believed in his talent, but was concerned with the situation. I’ll be buying him up if I get the chance as I wouldn’t be surprised if this team makes a quarterback change next off-season.

Malcolm Mitchell, WR NE

Mock 1: 2.08

Mock 2: 2.09

Pre-season ADP: 2.04

The Patriots rookie Mitchell began the season well, catching two balls for 33 yards in Week One, but that has proven to be his best game so far. With pass catchers Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and others back in action, Mitchell’s roll is decreasing. His value has dropped, but only slightly. He is still a solid stash and may pay off next season.

Wendell Smallwood, RB PHI

Mock 1: 2.11

Mock 2: 2.11

Pre-season ADP: 2.06

With an early season injury to Ryan Mathews, the rookie Smallwood got some surprise touches for the Eagles, but that didn’t carry over to the following weeks. Now, Mathews is back and the team continues to use Darren Sproles. This could be mostly a redshirt year for Smallwood. That limited action and the reminder of how often Mathews misses time was enough for Smallwood’s value to increase.

Braxton Miller, WR HOU

Mock 1: 2.10

Mock 2: 3.04

Pre-season ADP: 2.09

Miller has just five catches on the season for a total of 34 yards and he’s missed a pair of games with an injury, yet his dynasty value seems to be holding steady. Miller, still learning the position and soon to be 24 years old, is an easy player to avoid for me.

That gets us through the top 24 players. Here are the remaining players drafted in the two mock drafts.

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ryan mcdowell