Rookie Report Card: Dak Prescott and Michael Thomas

Dan Meylor

Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week.  On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and covering how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2016 potential and long term upside. 

The series continues with a look at Dak Prescott and Michael Thomas.

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Dak Prescott, QB DAL
Week Six Stats: 18/27 passing, 247 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, one carry, six rushing yards

I learn something new every time I watch Prescott play.  This past Sunday against the Packers, I learned that his name is actually Rayne Dakota Prescott.  I also completely changed my opinion on who should be the starting quarterback in Dallas once Tony Romo is healthy, but I’ll leave that debate for another day.

To be completely honest, I didn’t spend much time watching Prescott leading up to the draft this past spring.  Like many, I wasn’t sure there was an NFL starter (let alone fantasy producer) after Carson Wentz and Jared Goff in this year’s draft class.  When I watched Prescott though, he reminded me a bit of Ryan Tannehill

A good athlete with above average arm strength and showing improvement as a passer each year while in college, Prescott appeared to me to be a project with potential to at least be an NFL backup.  It now appears to me that I was wrong.

Prescott has been impressive since taking over for the injured Romo and had his best game on Sunday in Green Bay.  Making quick decisions and showing remarkable accuracy, Prescott was a better passer than Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. (Again, we’ll save that for another day.)  He completed 18 of 27 passes (66.7%) for 247 yards and three touchdowns while only throwing one interception and fumbling once. 

Prescott made impressive plays with regularity on Sunday.  Although his two touchdown passes to Cole Beasley were nice throws on the run, he was most impressive in the pocket. 

Late in the first quarter with the ball on the Green Bay 36, he ran a play action fake to Ezekiel Elliott, stepped up in the pocket to elude Julius Peppers, side stepped the penetration from Mike Daniels and threw a 15-yard strike while on the move to Terrance Williams with pressure in his face.  Impressive!  (And frustrating as hell for a Packers fan.)

Prescott was even more impressive on the Cowboys’ touchdown drive late in the first half.  After hitting a wide open Williams for 42 yards, he tossed a breathtaking 20-yard touchdown pass to Brice Butler in the corner of the end zone with a perfectly placed ball over his outside shoulder.

Overall, Prescott has been excellent throughout his rookie season but until Sunday, he was much better as an NFL quarterback than a fantasy quarterback.  Until the game against Green Bay, he had completed 66.8% of his passes and only turned the ball over once, but had also thrown just four touchdowns and averaged a moderate 247.8 passing yards per game.  His three touchdown runs were the only thing keeping him in the low-end QB2 conversation.

Now, it feels as if we’ve seen Prescott’s upside, at least in the short term.  Despite his impressive showing, he finished week six as a low end QB1 in nearly all scoring setups.  Although he certainly has the potential to be a regular in fantasy lineups at some point and is an excellent developmental quarterback to keep on a dynasty roster, he hasn’t reached that point just yet.

Many may be looking to get the rookie into their lineups after he torched the Packers but the truth is Rayne Dakota should be seen as nothing more than a fringe QB2 for the remainder of the 2016 season.

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Michael Thomas, WR NO
Week Six Stats: five receptions, 78 receiving yards, one touchdown reception (five targets)

Going all the way back to the early this spring, I had trepidation when considering Thomas’ transition from the Big Ten to the big stage of the NFL.  I was regularly critical of him.  In fact, in DLF’s annual Rookie Bust Mock Draft that I write, I penned the following.

“Thomas has many strengths but also has some glaring holes to his game.  A below-average route runner, he struggles regularly to change directions at the top of his route and has trouble with physical corners re-routing him in press coverage.  Combine that with a lack of aggressiveness with the ball in the air and I see an inconsistent receiver that is a big risk…”

As a fan of Big Ten football I had many opportunities to watch Thomas over the last few years and every time I watched him in college, I came away wanting more from the 6’-3”, 212 pound pass catcher.   Although he’d flash eyebrow raising playmaking ability as a red zone target early in a game, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him look disinterested later in the same contest.  Maddening to watch, his lackadaisical effort at times turned me off of him as a dynasty prospect.

Then Thomas ended up in an ideal landing spot when he was selected 47th overall by the Saints.  Many dynasty owners instantly got googly eyes over Drew Brees’ new weapon – particularly after he became a training camp darling and lit up the preseason – but I still had my doubts due to the weaknesses Thomas showed in college.

Looking back, I may have been wrong to focus so much on the negatives.

Having watched every snap Thomas has played this year, I have to say that I’ve been impressed.  Gone has been the guy who seemed to disappear at times for the Buckeyes and the receiver that struggled at the top of his routes seems to be a thing of the past.  Instead, Thomas has displayed improved route running and much more competitiveness play in and play out.

On Sunday, Thomas posted another quality stat line, catching five passes for 78 yards and a touchdown.  His score came on first-and-goal from the nine yard line in the second quarter.  Stacked to the left with the Panthers in bump-and-run, man coverage, he avoided the jam by slipping behind the tight end he was stacked with and got a step on the defender running a simple drag route.  Brees hit him in stride and he scored easily.  Although the play he made wasn’t dazzling by any stretch of the imagination, it did show Thomas’ burst off the line of scrimmage.

Thomas’ nicest play of the game came midway through the third quarter with the Panthers in off, man to man coverage.  Lined up tight to the right, he ran a post route but instead of going directly to the post like he may have done while in college, he bent his route to the outside to keep the off corner going up the field, then darted sharply to the middle of the defense.  Brees hit him for 23 yards.  It was a perfect display of how Thomas has improved since getting to the NFL.

On the season, Thomas has 26 catches on 36 targets for 307 yards and three touchdowns which are very strong numbers for a rookie.  Even more impressive however, he’s hauled in 16 of those catches on 25 targets for 193 yards and all three of those scores over New Orleans’ last three games.  Thomas is clearly becoming a top pass catcher in New Orleans and a trusted option for Brees – particularly in the red zone.

Thomas has no doubt benefited from playing with Brees and for Sean Payton – who regularly keeps Thomas from getting jammed by stacking him behind another receiver or tight end, hiding one of the rookie’s biggest weaknesses.  But no matter if its playing with Brees, the coaching, or another reason, Thomas appears to be a much more refined route runner now than he was back in Columbus which eases many of the concerns I had with him coming out of college.

Thomas certainly has the upside to have an explosive game at any point but for the rest of 2016, should be seen as a WR3 – however only as long as Brees is under center for the Saints.  As far as his long term outlook is concerned, his potential is likely still tied to his hall of fame quarterback but could make him a WR2 as soon as next year – especially in PPR leagues.

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dan meylor