Yesterday, we heard that Jets receiver Eric Decker will have season-ending surgery on his rotator cuff injury and be placed on injured reserve.
It is more bad news in a season which had already taken a turn for the worse in New York. The Jets are 1-4, with a starting quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who threw more interceptions in one game (six) than he has touchdowns on the year (five) and now they’ve lost an under-appreciated star in Decker. In the first two weeks, they scored 22 and 37 points, but in the last three they’ve mustered 3, 17 and 13 and just don’t seem to fire on all cylinders without him.
What does this mean for Decker and the rest of the Jets’ dynasty pieces moving forward?
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Eric Decker, WR
This is a damn shame. Decker has been one of the most consistent fantasy WR2s for years now, and his production in those years has been through the roof. Among other things, he’s caught at least one touchdown in 14 of 18 games played since 2015, and is fourth in the NFL in touchdown receptions since 2012 (via Kimberley Jones). Decker has always reminded me of former New Orleans Saint Marques Colston, in that owners would be drafting him for WR4/5 prices but receiving WR1/2 production every week.
We might have seen this coming with Decker being on the Dynasty Doctor’s injury report in week four, but at that time it was hinted he may be able to play through the injury. Perhaps the timing of this move was with a realization that the season is lost, and it would be better to bring Decker back at 100% for next year than have him play through the pain in 2016.
In dynasty, just like how we’ve reacted to major injuries to Ameer Abdullah, Keenan Allen and many more – there will be an opportunity to buy low. Owners who typically have no interest in moving a player like Decker will be open to a good offer. However, by the start of next season, he will be 30 years old and could potentially be paired with a rookie starting quarterback, which won’t seem so appealing. I’d send out some fair discount offers for Decker, but I would also expect his value to experience a further drop during the season before arcing back up over the summer as he regains health for 2017.
As an owner, he will have been a valuable part of your roster – so moving him for someone who can produce now to help a winning team may be a wise move. If you are in a similar situation to the Jets and the season seems lost, there’s no harm in moving an ‘ageing’ receiver for a pick or two in a strong 2017 class to regain some dynasty value. Either way, what do you do when you get hit with injuries? Don’t panic, just fight back.
Brandon Marshall, WR
Back in August, our Eric Hardter argued that Marshall was “the best combination of fantasy and real-life receiving ability in the NFL in 2015“. He’s been one of the best for almost ten years, only falling short of 1000 yards in one season since 2007. That is in nine seasons with three different teams. Simply outstanding. As Eric pointed out, he may be ‘older’ (32), but it hasn’t affected his ability to be one of the best. For contending teams, this could be a chance to acquire a league winner who could be force-fed the ball for the rest of the season.
There is no way Marshall will give up on this season, and his positive attitude and veteran presence might help the Jets from completely falling off. Whatever happens to the team, Marshall will get his – and continue a great career.
Quincy Enunwa, WR
Can he take over the Decker role opposite Marshall? Enunwa has put in an impressive campaign so far, as he leads the team with 27 catches. His 294 yards are behind Marshall (363), but he’s only ten PPR fantasy points behind the number one wideout right now. He’s also seen at least seven targets in four of five games, and we can expect those numbers to go up in Decker’s absence.
Enunwa has also provided great versatility, playing from both receiver and tight end this season. When asked which one he was, he simply said “I’m a playmaker“. I certainly believe he’ll continue with a strong season, but if I’m invested I’d shop him around now as expectations will be at their peak. In Ryan McDowell’s latest ‘Player or Pick’ article, Enunwa was valued just above a late second round pick. If I can sell him for a high second or better after the Decker news, I might bite. Otherwise, just hold and enjoy his breakout.
Robby Anderson, Jalin Marshall and Charone Peake, WRs
New York will turn to this trio of rookies as third, fourth and fifth options on the outside. So far, they’ve hauled in 14 passes for 156 receiving yards between them, but at least one will need to step up to fill the Decker void. Anderson was a preseason superstar, Marshall is more of a punt/kick returner than receiver and Peake looks the part but hasn’t put it all together yet. I’d be picking up Anderson and Peake if they are available, but not paying for either.
Our George Kritikos explained that Peake has the skills to be a good performer, but knee injuries and a crowded depth chart held him back in college. He walked into a similar situation in New York, but this injury certainly gives him more of a chance to prove himself. However, Anderson looks to be the favorite of the Jets, having seen 52-of-58 snaps last week and 62-of-71 the week before compared to 21 and 44 for Peake. Snap them both up if possible, and see who emerges.
Devin Smith, WR
I have to mention the former second round pick who I profiled as the Jet’s Summer Sleeper this off-season. He was such an explosive performer in college and we haven’t yet been able to see what he can do. Unfortunately, there is some mystery with him because we’ve heard nothing since he voiced his frustration at his slow recovery from an ACL injury and was place on the reserve/PUP list soon after. If (and it’s a big if) he returns to the game day roster soon, he will be the main receiver here I want to stash.
Man, what a mess the 2014 tight end draft class was. Eric Ebron was taken tenth overall, followed by Seferian-Jenkins and Jace Amaro in the second round. Ebron continues to underwhelm with drops and a lack of effort, while the other two have already moved on to new teams. Let’s not forget Troy Niklas, another second round pick who has managed a whopping eight receptions in his career so far.
At this point, I deem ASJ as a bust who cannot redeem himself. He always relied more on the physicality more than his football play, and we haven’t had any signs since he joined the league that he has improved on the field. Perhaps a change of scenery will finally mean he knuckles down and gets his act together, and maybe we should be bargain shopping for him before he comes good. But I would prefer to stay away, and I won’t believe he’s changed till I see it.
Matt Forte, RB
The savvy veteran sits in the top ten in rushing yards, and seventh in attempts per game, but has thus far only produced a measly 3.7 yards per carry. While I don’t think that will go up now that the Jets have lost a receiving option, Forte’s volume may increase and he could be more involved in the receiving game (13 catches so far). It was not so long ago that Forte had a 102-reception year in 2014, and I’m sure the team will aim to get both of their backs more of the ball. Don’t panic too much if you own him – presumably expectations weren’t too high with a preseason ADP of RB27.
Bilal Powell, RB
Powell may be a huge beneficiary here. While he’s only had 17 carries to Forte’s 93, he is a great receiving threat out of the backfield. He’s had three straight games with six receptions, as the team has targeted him more in Decker’s absence. Also, while the Jets fed Forte early with 52 carries in the first two games, he’s had no more than 15 in the three games since. At some point, Powell could see more volume there as well. He’s a good flex play in the middle of the season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
It’s not looking good. Fitzmagic has a two year contract that can be easily voided after 2016, and I would expect that to happen if the Jets’ season continues the way it’s going. He’s a streaming quarterback in dynasty, but certainly doesn’t hold any significant value moving forward.
Bryce Petty, Geno Smith and Christian Hackenberg, QBs
As mentioned above, the likelihood is that in a season heading downhill with a veteran quarterback; teams use the opportunity to ‘see what they have’ in their youngsters. Although every other skill position player on the team seems to want to stick with Fitzpatrick, Smith would seem like the logical next man up. However, the team hasn’t shown any faith in him at all and I doubt they see him as ‘the future’. Petty might be the first to get a shot, but I wouldn’t roster any of these players unless in a state of desperation in a 2QB/Superflex league.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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