Rookie Report Card: Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard

Dan Meylor

Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week.  On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and covering how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2016 potential and long term upside. 

The series continues with a look at a pair of rookie running backs, Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard.

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Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
Week Four Stats: 15 carries, 134 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, three receptions, 37 receiving yards (four targets)

Elliott has been as advertised since being drafted fourth overall by the Cowboys back in April. 

On his first NFL touchdown back in week one against the Giants, Elliott showed his elite vision when the hole on the left side of the formation was closed but one developed on the right side.  Without breaking stride, he cut back and blasted through the crease.  Elliott was so quick getting to the second level, he beat the safety coming down in run support through the hole, giving him just enough time to leap across the goal line.

Fast forward to a week later when Elliott and the Cowboys went to Washington and he made another impression – this time on a play that didn’t make it to many highlight reels.  With just over five minutes left in the first quarter, he took a first down carry designed to go off left guard but there wasn’t a running lane.  He hesitated slightly and bounced the run to a hole off left tackle, blasting through the narrowest of creases for a 10-yard gain.  Again, his vision and burst made the play.  A few plays later, he punched it into the end zone one yard out.

In week five, Elliott made a few more head turning runs against the Bengals.  His 60-yard touchdown early in the second half was breathtaking.  His vision and quickness in the backfield to find the hold, burst to get to the second level and raw speed were all on display.  Elliott also showed elite burst and balance on a 15-yard run late in the first quarter where he hurdled a defender on the ground and slipped past a tackler before tight roping the sideline. 

These are just a handful of examples of Elliott’s playmaking ability.  He’s also made a couple nice plays as a receiver on screens and has shown the ability to break tackles both at the line of scrimmage as well as at the second level.

All this brings us to Elliott’s numbers by the week to this point.

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As you can see from the statistics above, Elliott is being used as a true bell cow runner.  Averaging 21.8 carries per game and 109.2 rushing yards per game, he leads the league in both categories.  His five touchdown runs tie him for third in the league.

Perhaps even more impressive than that however, Elliott’s usage, efficiency and overall production has gone up with each week that has passed and he’s now gained at least 157 yards from scrimmage per game in each of the last three weeks.  He’s already vaulted himself to elite status among fantasy running backs and there is little to keep him from staying there although he’s sure to run into tougher defenses in the coming weeks.

If there is something to nitpick when it comes to Elliott’s usage, it’s his lack of opportunities as a pass catcher.  Averaging just two targets per game, he’s not being used as a weapon in that way which could become frustrating to fantasy owners (see: Todd Gurley’s owners.)

All that withstanding, Elliott looks like a weekly top-five fantasy option not only because of his elite vision, decision making and burst, but also because he’s running behind the league’s premiere run blocking offensive line.

As far as Elliott’s long term upside is concerned, the sky is the limit.  He should be looked at as a top ten dynasty asset and should only be traded away if you’re getting a truly elite wide receiver.

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Jordan Howard, RB CHI
Week Four Stats: 16 carries, 118 rushing yards, three receptions, 45 receiving yards, one touchdown reception (three targets)

Howard was a confusing prospect for me during the draft process.  He proved himself as a powerful runner while playing at Indiana against Big Ten competition.  A big (6’-0”, 230 pounds), bruising runner, he runs behind his pads well and keeps his center of gravity low which allows him to break tackles and always fall forward for extra yardage.  He appeared to the ideal downhill runner with great vision and leg drive.  Then the draft came.

For some reason, Howard slipped all the way to the fifth round of the draft, when he was taken by the Bears as the 150th overall selection.   His lowly draft status made me question my feelings on him as an overall prospect.  I started reading how many felt he was a limited runner that could only be effective between the tackles and lacked the top-end speed to be a playmaker on the edge.  I also started see that many questioned if he’d be able to stay healthy due to his powerful running style and insistence on finishing runs emphatically.

Like I mentioned above, I was confused.  And man do I wish I would have stuck to my convictions about Howard while watching him tear up the Big Ten with the Hoosiers.

Although the start to his NFL career was delayed due to the Chicago coaching staff insisting on keeping Jeremy Langford as the featured tailback in The Windy City (Langford got low marks when he was covered in The Rookie Report Card late last year), Howard got his chance to take over as primary runner when Langford went down to injury.  On his first carry after the injury, Howard busted off a 36-yard run and hasn’t looked back.  He also gashed the Cowboys for 22 yards on another run in the second half.  For what it’s worth, both of those runs came off tackle.

Overall, Howard has piled up 296 yards on 51 carries (5.8 YPC) while also chipping in 12 catches for 122 yards and a score as a rookie.  He’s already had two runs of 20-plus yards – which was a concern of many who questioned his big play ability – and has a couple big plays as a receiver – which should ease the mind of those that questioned his ability to contribute as a pass catcher.

Despite news last week that John Fox plans to “ride him pretty good moving forward,” fantasy owners still shouldn’t be convinced that Howard won’t be forced into a committee once Langford returns in a month.  After all, Fox has been known to use multiple runners throughout his time as a head coach (and lie to fantasy owners.)  With that said, it should be obvious to most watching the Bears that Howard is the most talented tailback in Chicago and should continue to be featured.  As long as Fox keeps his word, he should be locked in as an RB2 in fantasy for the short term.

It appears that Howard’s future looks just as promising in the long term as well.  With Jay Cutler wearing out his welcome, Alshon Jeffery continuing to be hurt and potentially moving on after the season, and Kevin White’s upside in question, he very well could be the best thing the Bears have on offense for the next couple seasons – giving him the opportunity to prove himself as the foundation of the Bears’ offense over that time. 

If a rookie draft were to take place today, Howard would be a first round pick.  Dynasty owners should approach trade offers involving him with that in mind, and the dynasty owner writing this article should learn his lesson to stick to his guns on how he feels about a prospect coming out of college and not allow where he is drafted or other opinions to sway him.  Perhaps that lesson can also help the dynasty owners not writing this article.

Man, I wish I owned Howard in more than one league.

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dan meylor