I was wrong!

One of the most difficult aspects of becoming a real-deal “professional” fantasy writer (aside from the fans in public constantly asking for autographs) is the fact that the opinions you’ve likely had for some time no longer exist in a vacuum. Sure, I had thoughts about Trent Richardson four years ago, but only a few friends knew about those thoughts, so the likelihood of my being embarrassingly exposed as a fraud and fool was low.

Nowadays, those opinions are plastered on the internet for our whole readership (and beyond) to see. It’s not hard to find out exactly how I feel about one Duke Johnson, for instance. And that doesn’t even take into account if you’re an avid twittererer or whatever as well. If you’re spouting your opinions in 140 characters or less, even more people might know how poor your opinions can occasionally be. Trust me, when you say something dumb both Twitter and the North remembers.

In the interests of full disclosure, I thought now would be a good time for some of us to fess up. Get things out in the open. Admit to our stupidity. Come clean, as it were. So without further ado, here are the “I Was Wrong” confessions of a few DLF writers.

“I Was Wrong About…”

Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN – With Peyton Manning gone, I thought the Broncos would revert to a run-heavy game plan with Demaryius Thomas hogging what targets were available. The run-heavy prediction was right: Denver has the fifth-fewest pass attempts per game and the sixth-most rush attempts per game. But Sanders is the focus of the passing game. His 42 targets are good for sixth most in the league, and he’s converted them into 15.0 points per game in half-PPR scoring (WR10). –Brian Malone

I too believed Sanders would suffer greatly the departure of Manning, so I can see where Brian was coming from here for sure.

Carson Wentz, QB PHI – As an Eagles fan, it pains me to admit that I didn’t see the rise of Carson Wentz coming. Obviously, Sam Bradford was still blocking his path at the time my drafts were held. Beyond the lack of playing time we initially anticipated, I didn’t think Wentz would be ready to win and produce this soon. The price for my failure to recognize his ability is my ownership of exactly zero shares in what looks to be an elite franchise prospect. – Mo Brewington

You really can’t blame Mo here, QB seems to be a position tough to judge both for fantasy guys AND for NFL front offices.

T.J. Yeldon, RB JAX – The easy answer for most people is going to be DeMarco Murray. He’s touring the country right now on the “Y’all can kiss my butt” tour, so I’ll take option B. I really thought Yeldon caught a raw deal when the Jaguars signed Chris Ivory this offseason to be the lead back of this committee but after watching him the first four weeks of the season, I think I see it. The Jags offensive line isn’t doing him any favors but he’s not helping either. He’s not creating any yards on his own and has only topped 40 yards once while Ivory has been out. I expected Yeldon to be a RB2 for this season but I was wrong. – Eric Olinger

I also had higher hopes for Yeldon than some. I thought maybe Ivory was just a luxury pickup due to Jacksonville’s cap situation. But Yeldon hasn’t been quite showing it this year.

Detroit WR Corps – I missed the boat on the wide receiver situation in Detroit. I expected the reliable Anquan Boldin to step into the number two role, but ahead of Marvin Jones as Golden Tate racked up the targets. Considering how well Tate played with Megatron sidelined last year and that Jones was new to the offense, triple-digit receptions felt within reach as Stafford focused on the receiver he was most comfortable with. It has been the exact opposite. Jones showed enough flashes that his rise in value was not a big surprise, but unless Tate has an undisclosed injury I was completely wrong about the value in this group of receivers. ­– Jaron Foster

I kind of stayed away from the Detroit WR corps entirely. I expected regression from that offense, but apparently I was wrong about that. I do have a share of Marvin Jones, but I’ve held him in that league since he was a Bengal.

Golden Tate, WR DET – I simply overlooked Marvin Jones as a player. I thought he was a descent player, but didn’t think he was as good as he has shown thus far in the season. Therefore, while I was correct in the thought process of buying Lions’ offensive players (particularly their pass catchers and Matthew Stafford), I didn’t expect Marvin Jones to be the clear go-to wide receiver in Detroit. – Andrew Lightner

I never bought into Tate, but I can certainly understand those that did.

DeMarco Murray, RB TEN – I completely missed the mark with Murray. I am constantly in the market for cheap running backs, and I didn’t purchase a single share of Murray this past off-season. I honestly thought he’d never be able to resurrect his career after Dallas ran him into the ground, especially not with an offensively-challenged team like the Titans, and my belief was only strengthened when Tennessee drafted Derrick Henry. Well, it’s only been four games, but Murray has been outstanding, excelling both as a runner and receiver. He’s probably due for some touchdown regression the rest of the way, but congratulations to those who bought him for peanuts this past off-season. – Austan Kas

This is another situation I just avoided, but I wish I hadn’t at this point. I’d love to own Murray in a couple leagues where I’m hurting at RB.

Melvin Gordon, RB SD – I was down on Gordon for a variety of reasons. The Chargers offensive line was abysmal in 2015 and I saw no reason for optimism in 2016. Add to that Gordon’s microfracture surgery, his pedestrian rookie campaign, and I was bearish on his 2016 prospects. I bought several Danny Woodhead shares and thought he’d be the best option in this backfield.

Gordon has exceeded expectations and is presently the RB2 in standard scoring formats (RB3 in PPR). Granted, much of that is based on injuries that hit the running back position early this year, and Gordon’s reliance on touchdowns to boost his numbers. Still, the Chargers don’t have many options at running back and he should get a high volume of touches this season. I’d still be selling him now in dynasty leagues, as I’m not convinced he will consistently replicate these numbers in future seasons. – Scott Peak

I’ve been a Gordon non-believer, and I’m now paying for it. I just felt he was a product of a bruising offensive line in Wisconsin. Now I wish I had a share or two.

Christine Michael, RB SEA – I never bought into his rookie hype – I couldn’t believe people were talking about C-Mike as if he was the best ball carrier on a roster featuring a Hall of Fame-level talent in Marshawn Lynch and a serviceable change-of-pace guy in Robert Turbin, largely due to a couple of preseason plays. Not surprisingly to me, Michael did absolutely nothing his first couple years as he earned himself a one-way ticket out of Seattle, after being unceremoniously cut in favor of UDFA Thomas Rawls.

Fast forward to the end of last year – Michael returned to the Pacific Northwest and had a couple decent showings at the end of the season, but with the return of Rawls and drafting of CJ Prosise and Alex Collins I thought it remained evident that Pete Carroll and Company remained unsold on their former second round pick. Yet Michael has matured as a player and taken over the Seahawks backfield while both Rawls and Prosise have been on the shelf, and at this point it’s fair to posit they’ll be nothing more than backups when they return. It’s C-Mike’s role now. – Eric Hardter

I stayed away from Michael, but now regret the couple shares of Rawls I picked up in the offseason. I at least own CMike on my SFB480 team, though!

Christine Michael, RB SEA – I honked about Thomas Rawls all offseason and wrote off Christine Michael as someone not fit to carry his jockstrap, but I was wrong. I’m not admitting failure on Rawls yet since we haven’t seen him healthy since last December, but I was certainly wrong to discount the fantasy production Michael is capable of. Through four weeks he is the PPR RB12 on a points per game basis scoring 16.45 per game and I see no reason he can’t continue to be a low end RB1 for as long as Thomas Rawls is sidelined. – Matt Price

I’m sure many more folks realize they may have been wrong about C-Mike – not surprised we have two of them here. I’d count myself among those possibly wrong about him as well.

Jimmy Graham, TE SEA – I enjoyed owning Jimmy Graham on multiple teams over the years, but had severe doubts he could return from the dreaded patella tendon injury. However, he’s been proving me wrong this season with posting consecutive 100 yard receiving games as of this writing – it’s a miracle! I was wrong, but in this instance I love seeing players recover from serious injuries and will enjoy watching him thrive in the future. – Nick Whalen

And finally, my own confession – I was wrong about…

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA –I believed that Ajayi was a guy that had talent, and had only dropped in the draft due to injury concerns that hadn’t even surfaced. I liked what I saw in his tape leading up to the draft last year, though I didn’t end up drafting him anywhere. I did, however, foolishly trade for him a couple of places this offseason. With the lack of any competition in Miami, I thought he just needed the chance to run away with the job, and really thought he would. Boy was I wrong. It turned out he has a maturity problem that came through when Miami signed Arian Foster and then gave him the starting job in week one. Maybe Ajayi should realize that he didn’t win that job when he had a golden chance to do so. This could still turn around, but for now it looks like I wasted a bit of capital on Ajayi. – Ryan Finley

So there you have it, our fantasy souls laid bare. This is proof positive that we aren’t right all the time, and sometimes we can be very, very wrong. But you can’t make good fantasy predictions without making a few bad ones. And if any of us were 100 percent accurate all the time well, let’s face it – you’d probably never know because we would be hidden away in some secret base using our impeccable fantasy prediction talent to make boatloads of DFS money. And besides, what fun would predictions be if we weren’t horribly wrong from time to time?

So out with it then, who were you just flat wrong about this offseason?