When prepping for this week’s edition of the DLF Podcast, I came across some perspective shaking information. My initial reaction was to write a full article, perhaps two, delving into the revelation, coming up with all manner of keen insight into why it happened and how to react to it. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized I had no clue what it means or what to do with the information. Maybe someday I’ll figure it all out, but in the meantime, I’ll use this week’s Questions to spew some into the ether.
That’s right, kids, despite being unable to answer questions about the information in question when I asked myself the same questions in the first place, the questions I’ve been asking myself are now the questions I’m going to ask myself then answer for your entertainment. Or something.
Before you get to the questions about the questions, should I trade Terrelle Pryor for a late 2017 first?
I was perusing Twitter this evening and saw a discussion of Pryor’s trade value being in the neighborhood of a random 2017 first. I get the lure. He is huge, fast, and has been scoring fantasy points with fury. When you watch him on film, it is obvious that he is incredibly hard to cover, even for the likes of Josh Norman. And when he is blanketed, his superior physical everything just wins anyway. But, and you knew there was one coming, there are tons of concerns, starting with the tiny body of work.
With 19 receptions this year, Pryor is up to 21 for his career on 49 targets. Sporting a sub-50 percent catch rate on the season, the former QB is a work in progress benefitting from big volume and bigger plays (something the film backs up). All of this is fine, or at least it was when he was the 63rd receiver off the board in our September ADP mocks. I haven’t seen our October data, but with the aforementioned Twitter discussion and Ryan McDowell’s recent poll on the matter, I’d expect him to be jumping into the WR40 range. I have a pretty big issue with that.
Already 27, it is difficult to see Pryor having the time to progress to the point of matching Doug Baldwin, Marvin Jones, or Stefon Diggs, who are all going in the same area. I’d also have a tough time taking him over 29-year-olds such as Emmanuel Sanders or Michael Crabtree, who are the WR40 and 48 respectively.
I’m willing to be wrong on this, but if I have to choose between a top-15 pick in a loaded class where the players are 21-23 years old and a raw 27 year old on a bad team with a first-round pick to compete with (Corey Coleman), I’ll take the pick.
Stop delaying. What is this information of which you spoke?
Take a moment and pull up our ADP data. Click on the WR tab. Start at the top and you’ll find some guy named Odell. Now slowly go through the receivers name-by-name, considering their performance thus far. When you get to WR35, stop.
Now you’ve got the same info I do. Well, almost.
OK, spill it. What else do you have?
- using current PPR scoring for wide receivers, the top-35 in ADP have an average rank of 49th
- only eighteen rank in the top-35
- 27 of the 35 are performing below their ADP
- six are currently injured
- six others have both battled injury and underperformed
- one is in rehab for substance abuse
- 11 are simply not meeting expectations
- the biggest uninjured offenders are Randall Cobb and Golden Tate
All things taken into consideration, I’d say around 24 of the players have reduced their market value by a measureable margin. That is a staggering 69 percent.
If 24 have seen a reduction in value, who is going to move up?
There are a bunch of candidates, including Baldwin, Jones, Diggs, Will Fuller, Sanders, Crabtree, and Mr. Pryor. Of course we can’t expect all of the receivers having rough years to drop a ton, nor should we. But October ADP is going to be (or at least it should be) bloody. Happy Halloween, I guess.
Even if there aren’t players who have taken their place, the guys who’ve not matched their hype are going to be easier and less costly to acquire. OBJ hasn’t been this cheap since Thanksgiving 2014. Along with this, those who’ve been good are going to be more sought after as contenders look for players who are putting up numbers today. To that point, I’ve seen Keenan Allen dealt for Jarvis Landry in two different leagues. A month ago Allen was going a full round earlier in mocks.
What was the point of all this?
As I made perfectly clear by making it not at all clear, I have no idea. Maybe (Probably?) none of this means anything. But from an anecdotal, totally un-researched perspective, I can’t recall a season with this many pass catchers bombing in fantasy.
My feeling is none of this will mean anything in two months, but in the interim, it’s been fun to ponder. And just like the 49ers, we could all use a little more Ponder in our lives.
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- NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the AFC North - June 18, 2018