FanDuel Bargains: Week Five

Mike Valverde

Editor’s Note: We’re going to bring you an unprecedented amount of content this year during the season, mostly dynasty related. However, seeing the explosion of DFS games, we’ll also be providing daily coverage. Even if you don’t play in DFS games, these articles can help you in making lineup decisions or judge the current value of your dynasty assets.

Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel. Keep in mind that these suggestions relate to GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments with more than 50 participants where players are looking for bargains to fill out their lineups after already inserting their “studs” for the week. Many of them are risky plays and shouldn’t necessarily take into account for head-to-head or 50/50 games.

Quarterback

Jameis Winston, QB TB $7,400

What happened to the Carolina Panthers? Their defense looks like they pulled the escape hatch after losing the Super Bowl last season. They are giving up 257 yards per game in the air which ranks them at 19th in yards allowed. With Jameis Winston averaging 258 yards a game in passing offense it seems like that may be the magic number.

The Panthers are in desperation mode right now. They have only won one game and that was against the San Francisco 49ers. They also just came from the physical beating that the Atlanta Falcons laid at their feet. Matt Ryan finished with 503 yards passing and tossed four touchdowns.

Not a chance this happens for Winston, but I can see similar numbers that Blaine Gabbert posted against the Panthers with an uptick in yards. Gabbert threw for 243 yards in the loss with two touchdowns. I see Winston with around 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Others to Consider:

Joe Flacco, QB BAL $7,600 

Against the Raiders, Flacco threw for 298 yards in 32 of 52 attempts and one touchdown to go along with a rushing score. He connected with Steve Smith making him the top receiver for Baltimore for the second straight week. Smith finished with 111 yards. Flacco finished with 22 FanDuel points.

Joe Flacco is doing Flacco-type things. On the season he has 1,072 passing yards (14th in the NFL) with four touchdowns (21st) and four interceptions (10th). He has completed 108 (3rd) passes in 170 attempts for a 63.53 completion percentage (23rd).

He has a much easier challenge this week against the Washington Redskins. The Redskins are 28th in total defense and 26th against the pass. Washington’s swiss cheese defense should lead to great opportunities for Flacco and the Ravens.

Under FanDuel scoring rules Flacco has averaged 16.5 points per week

The over/under is 48 points and Vegas favors the Ravens by four at home.

Basement Pick:

Paxton Lynch, QB DEN $6,800

So the rookie gets his chance to showcase his talents. Paxton Lynch could be an audition for a team wanting to see if they like Lynch as he has been tied to trade rumors because of Trevor Siemian’s start to the season.

Lynch came in for Siemian last week when he hurt his shoulder and connected on 14 of 24 targets for 170 yards and one touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccs. Many scouts believed Lynch had a large learning curve and would need a year of growth. However, Gary Kubiak told the world that was horse manure when he asked his young quarterback to throw seven straight passes on his way into the game.

Lynch showed off his cannon for an arm and his ability to fit nicely with Kubiak’s boot-leg offensive scheme. Now the question becomes if he plays well, does he automatically win the job from Siemian or is Kubiak wanted that year of growth to continue.

He will now face another easy defense in the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons give up 317 yards (31st) in the air on an average per game basis. Denver on the other hand average 236 yards per game in the air. The Broncos will rely on the run more than the pass. Look for more of the running game, but Lynch should come close to the 300 yards passing and two touchdowns.

The over/under is 47 points and Vegas favors the Broncos by 4.5 points on the road.

On the Cheap

Brian Hoyer, QB CHI $6,000 vs. Indianapolis

Running Backs

Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN $6,200

Jerick McKinnon had a solid game versus the New York Giants defense. He finished with 85 yards on 18 carries and scored a touchdown. He also caught three passes for 10-yards. He averaged over five yards per rush.

What must be even more belief in McKinnon is that he has thwarted off the distraction of Matt Asiata. As McKinnon had 21 touches while Asiata only had eight. His touchdown even came in the red zone when he scored from the four-yard line.

McKinnon will assume the lead back role again this week as a home favorite against the Texans who have allowed an average of 100 rushing yards and over one touchdown per game to opposing running backs this season.

The over/under is 40.5 points and Vegas favors the Vikings by seven points at home.

Matt Forte, RB NYJ $7,100

Matt Forte has moved up in price almost every week since Week One, and this is probably the highest I would spend on the standout running back. The interesting aspect to all this is he has been on the decline since the first two weeks of the season. He combined for 48 points in those two weeks, but only 12.7 in the two weeks following.

On the season Forte has 288 rushing yards with three touchdowns on 81 carries. He also has 11 receptions for 83 yards. Last week he faced the Seattle Seahawks, therefore, I will give him a pass on his 5.3 points. Forte had a ribs x-ray but the running back appears recovered as he practiced fully this week.

Under FanDuel scoring he is averaging 15.1 points per game, and will be facing a stout Pittsburgh Steelers run defense that allows just 78.2 yards per game (4th in the NFL). However the Steelers are susceptible to the pass and Forte has excellent hands.

The over/under is 47 points and Vegas favors the Steelers by seven points at home.

Others to Consider:

Frank Gore, RB IND $6,900

Frank Gore is going to have many rushing lanes to run through and this should be just fine for Andrew Luck. The quarterback needs his running game to take pressure off his shoulders and Gore should do just that against the Chicago Bears.

Chicago has one of the worst rushing defenses in football. They have allowed on average 123.5 yards per game (26th in the NFL). The Indianapolis Colts are almost equally as bad when trying to run the ball. They still haven’t the century mark running back since Vick Ballard did it in December of 2012.

Gore has done a good job in both the running game for the Colts and the passing game. His FanDuel points have also increased every week. In Week One against the Detroit Lions he had 9.8 points, but then 13.8, 14.8, and then last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars with 18.

The over/under is 48 points and Vegas favors the Colts by 4.5 points at home.

Terrance West, RB BAL $6,400

With the cut of Justin Forsett it appears as though Terrance West has become the number one back in Baltimore. He rushed for 113 yards against the Oakland Raiders and with Kenneth Dixon returning it made Forsett expendable.

I am not too worried about Dixon in his first game in the NFL. He will be used sparingly as they don’t want to overwhelm him, and Buck Allen has been nothing more than a bit player. With that said, West makes an excellent purchase at only $6,400.

The Ravens take on a weak Washington Redskins defense that allows on average 101.25 yards per game (29th in the NFL) and a whopping 18.68 fantasy points per game. Look for Baltimore to use the run to set up the pass, and West should be the benefactor for both.

The over/under is 45 points and Vegas favors the Ravens by four points at home.

Basement Pick:

Ryan Mathews, RB PHI $6,300

Ryan Mathews returns this week and should have full-time back duties for the Philadelphia Eagles. In the first two weeks of the season he scored 13.7 FanDuel Points against Cleveland and then 16 points against Chicago.

Now he will face a Detroit Lions defense that gives up 271.8 yards per game against the run (22nd in the NFL). The Eagles have one of the best-running teams in football as they average 119.3 yards (9th). With Mathews price tag as low it is and in combination with the Lions defense, look for a very solid game out of the veteran running back.

The over/under is 46.5 points and Vegas favors the Eagles by 3.5 points on the road.

On the Cheap

Deandre Washington, OAK $4,700 vs. San Diego

Wide Receiver

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA $7,500

Landry caught seven of ten targets for 61 yards against Cincinnati last week, typical numbers for the standout Miami Dolphins wide receiver. There is no doubt that Landry is Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target, as he is one of the most reliable receiever’s in all of football.

Landry has seen his points increase since week one when he scored 9.4 FanDuel points against Seattle. He followed that up with 16.5 in New England, and 23.1 when he faced Cleveland. He did regress against the tough defense of Cincinnati (9.6).

This week he is back at home against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are stingy against the pass as they allow 240.8 yards per game (13th) through the air, while the Dolphins offense gains 252 yards in the air (15th). Tannehill is going to spot Landry often in this game, and while he may not get into the end zone, he should finish with at least six receptions and close to 100 yards.

The over/under is 43 points and Vegas favors the Dolphins by 3.5 points at home.

Michael Crabtree, WR OAK $6,900

Michael Crabtree has surprised many with his performance over the last two seasons. He fits the Oakland Raiders system very well and seems to be the receiver Derek Carr likes to go to. He is the prototypical PPR wide receiver.

Last week against the Ravens he caught seven of 12 passes and scored three touchdowns. With his price tag and matchup his ownership will probably be high this week. The Chargers are allowing 289.5 yards through the air (27th) and the Raiders are averaging 265.5 yards (8th) in passing offense.

Crabtree has been steady all year by scoring 14.2 against the Saints and 11.1 versus Atlanta. He put up 14.2 in Tennessee, then his 30.3 last week facing the Ravens. On the season, Crabtree has 26 catches (5th) for 308 yards (15th). At this point in the season he is averaging 17.5 FanDuel points.

The over/under is 51 points and Vegas favors the Raiders by three 3.5 points at home.

Others to Consider:

Quincy Enunwa, WR NYJ $6,200

With Eric Decker being out for most of the season the Jets are going to rely on Quincy Enunwa to fill that hole. He did so last week as he caught six balls for 60 yards and finished 3rd on the team in targets. He now gets a Steelers defense that is only giving up five fantasy points to WR2 and has given up a max of 7 points to WR2. Don’t let this sway you in picking him as most will stay away for these reasons. Enunwa has good hands as he has caught 23 of his 32 targets.

The Jets are most likely going to have garbage time against the Steelers. This should get Enunwa even more targets and opportunities. Even though Pittsburgh is tough on a number two receivers, they have struggled overall when it comes to passing defense. They allow 316.5 yards (30th) in the air, while the Jets offense throws for 248.2 yards per game (18th).

The over/under is 47 points and Vegas favors the Steelers by seven points at home.

Mike Wallace, WR BAL $6,300

Mike Wallace is having a bounce back season, but those things tend to happen when you go from Ryan Tannehill to Joe Flacco. Last week he caught four passes for 44 yards on ten targets against the Oakland Raiders.

Wallace has slowed down since Steve Smith has emerged. When you throw in the chemistry of Flacco and Dennis Pitta it narrows down his targets even further. Wallace has and always will be a downfield threat, so his numbers will either be explosive or shallow.

On the season, Wallace has 14 receptions and 210 yards on 28 targets with three touchdowns. Now he will be facing the Washington Redskins at home. The Skins are allowing 285.5 yards per game in the air (26th). The Redskins are allowing the wide receiver two 58.75 yards and 8.88 fantasy points per game. With FanDuel Wallace is averaging 12.5 points per game.

The over/under is 45 points and Vegas favors the Ravens by 4.0 points at home.

Basement Pick:

Jamison Crowder, WR WAS $5,800

Jamison Crowder only caught two passes for 21 yards in the Redskins dominating win over the Cleveland Browns (31-20). The large spread kept Kirk Cousins from throwing his average amount of passes of 42. Against the Browns he only threw 27 passes. For Crowder he has earned chemistry with Cousins and has become his number one receiver.

His season totals he has caught 18 of 28 targets for 196 yards and two touchdowns. His receptions are 31st right now in the NFL and that means he has solid number three receiver.

Crowder is averaging 10.1 points for FanDuel and has averaged 49 yards per game. The Washington Redskins will play against the Ravens who are a tough defense especially against the pass. But, they have struggled against number two receivers, which means Crowder could also be in for a good game as well as the Ravens are giving up nine points per game to that position.

The over/under is 45 points and Vegas favors the Ravens by four points at home.

On the Cheap

Brice Butler, WR DAL $5,100

Tight End

Zach Miller, TE CHI $5,400

The Chicago Bears will be playing the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday and Zach Miller could have a solid game. Brian Hoyer should start and get Miller involved in this offense. The tight end has scored three touchdowns since Hoyer has been the starter and the Indianapolis defense gets burned by tight ends and they have allowed an average of four receptions for 50 yards per game to opposing ends.

The over/under is 48 points and Vegas favors the Colts by 4.5 points at home.

Other Considerations:

Hunter Henry, TE SDC $5,400

Cameron Brate, TE TBY $5,400

mike valverde
Latest posts by Mike Valverde (see all)