Bear Market
It has been quite the year for the Chicago Bears, even though we are only a month into the season. There was a little bit of apprehension moving on from the Matt Forte era in Chicago, but there was also a fair amount of optimism. Bears fans were looking forward to seeing what was supposed to be a much improved defense as well as the first real action for their 2015 first round pick, Kevin White. In some ways, a Bears fan could almost look at it as having two first round picks this year with White and Leonard Floyd both seeing their first snaps this year.
Fast forward to the present time and the best thing Bears fans can say is we play Detroit twice. Five defense starters are already on IR as well as a handful more out for a few weeks, making the defense which was supposed to be improved one of the worst in the league. Then you have the ongoing Jay Cutler saga which never seems to go away. Could this actually be the end of his time in Chicago? I’m not so sure, but there are definitely a lot of people who think he’s played his last snap in the Windy City.
Just to pile on the mess in Chicago, word broke today that Kevin White is also going on IR with a high ankle sprain and a stress fracture in his leg. This means in all likelihood (unless they bring him back for a meaningless game or two at the end of the year), he’ll end his second year in the league with a grand total of four total games played in his career – this isn’t what we were hoping for when the Bears spent an early first round pick on him. What does it mean for his dynasty prospects and those of his teammates? Let’s explore.
Kevin White, WR CHI
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Most don’t realize it, but in what is essentially his rookie season, White was leading the team in targets and receptions through the first quarter of the season. His yardage has been lower than expected due to a lack of big plays, but he was still highly involved in the offense. All of those targets are going to need to go somewhere else, but we’ll cover that later.
Landing on IR is obviously a huge blow to his development. White was exceptionally raw coming out of college and sitting on IR for the 2015 season really didn’t help that much. Even when there was some hype this summer about how he was doing, there were still a lot of beat writers in Chicago trying to tap the brakes because he really didn’t understand the offense. Over the four games this year, there were many times where he seemed a little lost on the field and just seemed to wing it like a few of my students do on test days. Sometimes it worked out, but more often than not, just like it does for my students, it didn’t get him anywhere. He desperately needed the 2016 season to continue his development and work on being a wide receiver in the NFL. This is going to set him back a bit.
From a dynasty perspective, White’s second season ending with a second IR stint pretty much makes him untradeable right now. Considering you likely spent an early 2015 first round rookie pick on him, you will be lucky to get pennies on the dollar right now. If he’s on your roster, you pretty much need to hold him for now. At some point in the next 11 months there will be some good press about White’s recovery and how he is looking in practice. When that happens, it is the time to move him if you are trying to maximize his value and minimize your loss. Just realize you are going to take a big loss on him, because he’s definitely flirting with bust territory.
If you are rebuilding, it wouldn’t hurt to toss out an offer of a late second or early third round pick to see if you can catch a really frustrated owner in a weak moment. He has more upside than anyone you are going to get with those picks, so he is worth a shot, even if he seems like a bust. I wouldn’t pay any more than that, but as I mentioned above, if I owned him I wouldn’t sell him for that, either.
Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
Unfortunately, Jeffery hasn’t exactly been the picture of health this year (or any other year). If he was healthy, I would put him down for 10+ targets each and every game from here out and a potential at a monster season. Instead, he’s been seeing just over six targets per game and he can’t seem to get open. If he can get healthy, which is a big if for Jeffery, he should be a target monster for the rest of the year and make his owners very happy with the receptions and yardage. If healthy, he’s locked in as a WR1 pretty much every week, even though the Bears might be a pretty terrible offense moving forward.
Long term, I think White going down this year means the Bears have very little choice but to re-sign Jeffery to a long term deal. Unless they plan on blowing everything up and just rolling the dice with a bunch of rookies and young players, I think they need to pay Jeffery as the only proven weapon on the offense. I’m not sure if this is good or bad news for Jeffery’s dynasty value, but sometimes the known is better than the alternative.
Eddie Royal, WR CHI
I expect Royal to be the biggest beneficiary of White’s injury. He’s going to be an every down player from this point forward and has a skill set which complements Jeffery. Royal has only 22 targets through the first four games, but I would expect him to be much closer to ten per game from this point forward. With his sure hands and run after the catch ability, this is going to be a great thing for his owners. If he’s a free agent in your league for some odd reason, it is time to spend that blind bidding money and pick him up at all costs. He’s going to be a high floor WR2/WR3 week in and week out moving forward. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up leading the team in receptions this season and if he has his first 1,000 yard season of his career. However, I’m not expecting a ton of touchdowns because I think the Bears offense will struggle moving forward.
If I’m a contending team in need of a receiver to help me make the playoffs, I would strongly be considering shipping off my second round pick for Royal if you feel he could be the missing piece. His long term ceiling is likely limited given his age, but if he helps me get into the championship game, a second is a very minor price to pay.
Zach Miller, TE CHI
The other major “winner” in my book from a fantasy perspective is Miller. He’s going to pick up whatever is left from White’s share of the pie. He’s also going to continue being one of the primary targets in the red zone, which means he could actually push for TE1 numbers this year. If you’re someone who lacks an every week tight end, Miller might be a great player to target given his price tag relative to a lot of the other fringe TE1s. I wouldn’t be shocked if Miller averages about five receptions for 50 yards and an outside shot at a score each week.
Quarterbacks
I don’t know if I should be talking about Brian Hoyer or Jay Cutler at this point, so I’ll just speak in general. Losing White hurts and means the game plan will need to be much more conservative going forward. There will need to be a lot more underneath routes with the occasional shot down the field to Jeffery. This kind of game plan probably fits Hoyer’s skill set more than Cutler’s, but whoever is the quarterback isn’t going to be starting for your team, maybe not even in a superflex league.
Jordan Howard/Jeremy Langford, RB CHI
The running backs might need to pick up a little bit of the slack as well. So far, the two of them have combined for just over five targets per game. I don’t expect to see a major uptick in that number due to White’s injury, but his disappearance helps bring the floor up a little bit. I think it also means the Bears are going to try to slow the game down and run the ball a bit more. Of course, that only works as long as you aren’t down by 21 at the half.
Cameron Meredith, WR CHI
If you aren’t a Bears fan, you probably had no idea Meredith is the next man up on the depth chart. Actually, I bet a lot of you who are Bears fans didn’t know that. Meredith is a second year player out of Illinois State who has accounted for six receptions on eight targets this season for a modest 52 yards. He’s only seen action the last two games, but I don’t think he has the talent to see much of an uptick from where he’s been at. He might occasionally have a big game, but I don’t think he is fantasy relevant or worth a roster spot. I think all of White’s targets will be split up among other players like Royal and Miller.
Long term, I think this means the Bears will be spending some draft capital on the receiver position. White has shown he can’t be trusted and I think the organization will view anything they get from him as a bonus at this point. He’s going to need to compete with a few rookies in 2017 to get significant playing time. Given his lack of refinement, there is a chance he might lose that competition.
If you are an owner of White, this is a bitter pill to swallow, but he is looking like a total loss right now. You need to decide if you are going to hold him until the bitter end or if you are looking to cash out (even at a major loss) at the best opportunity. If it is the latter, now isn’t that time. Be patient, hold him through the season and wait for something positive to come out of OTAs or mini-camps in the spring/summer. When it does, make your move.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
