Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Four

Trevor Bucher

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

Early Games

Indianapolis at Jacksonville in London

With Donte Moncrief out, I was watching Philip Dorsett in week three for a value bump. Instead, we saw TY Hilton blow up and prove that he doesn’t necessarily need a strong number two receiver on his team in order to beast. This week, in London, with two teams that are playing sloppy football on both sides of the ball, Hilton has a chance to shine once again if this turns into a high scoring affair. Heck, he might shine even if he just gets one play with busted coverage. I’m looking for more consistency in his game, and if he has that he moves up.

One Jaguar blew up his first few years out of nowhere, got paid, and then disappeared. Allen Hurns needs to start producing stats commensurate with his contract. In 2015, when these two teams played with Vontae Davis active and covering Allen Robinson, Hurns turned in respectable performances. The Colts defense hasn’t gotten any better, so I want to see Hurns produce in a matchup he has produced in before, or he begins a slow slide down my rankings.

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Buffalo at New England

In a game script that defied logic, LeSean McCoy turned in a great performance leading the Bills to a victory over the Cardinals. This week against the Patriots, I’m looking for one of two things: for him to be the guy that makes the game script flip twice in a row, or for him to produce despite a bad game script. The passing game didn’t give him much help last week, which I expected, but if he is the new focal point of this offense it can only mean good things for his dynasty value.

Let’s be honest, this week’s game will not be an indictment of any players’ value on the Patriots team. The team’s defense, however, will need to show that it can do what it should do against a weak division rival at home. If the defense can’t hold up against an apparently surging Bills run game, we may need to rethink game scripts in the near future until Tom Brady knocks the rust off of his game.

Tennessee at Houston

Quietly, DeMarco Murray is turning in a fine fantasy season with a high ceiling combined with a higher than expected floor provided by his passing game involvement. Against a tough Houston defense, I want to see if Murray can keep that momentum regardless of how the game script turns out. If the Titans are winning, I want it to be because of what he is doing. If they are losing, I want him catching passes and putting up yards after the catch. If he can do this, I’ll be moving him up.

On the Texans, Lamar Miller has been fed the ball, to the delight of fantasy owners everywhere. Unfortunately, the rejoicing has been put on hold as his efficiency is in the tank. The Titans are not a great defense, Miller should continue to be fed, and he really needs to get at least above 4.0 yards per carry. If he can’t get his efficiency fixed, down he goes on the value board.

Detroit at Chicago

Marvin Jones has been absolutely fantastic at the Lions WR1. Except everyone wanted Golden Tate to be the team’s WR1, and now he is the odd man out in terms of fantasy production. Against a Bears defense decimated by injury and in a week where the team has said they want more targets for Tate, we need to see him do something meaningful from a fantasy perspective with those targets. A fifth/sixth round fantasy pick this year, he needs to justify that draft position, and soon, or his value slides.

What a crazy week three we had for tight ends! Zach Miller was the surprise of the week – showing up big against the Cowboys with interim (and maybe future?) quarterback Brian Hoyer under center for the Bears. If you’ve been reading this column weekly, you’ll know that I am a big fan of watching for early rapport with a new or young quarterback and getting ahead of the value curve. As if his usage weren’t salivating enough, he goes up against the Lions this week who are the worst in the league at giving up points to tight ends. Put simply, if Miller takes advantage of this opportunity, his value goes up.

jonesCarolina at Atlanta

Even in a week where Kelvin Benjamin was held without a catch against the Vikings, Devin Funchess was a fantasy non-factor. I don’t even have a lot to say about him at this time. He needs to show up, or move down. Involvement in the passing game would be a good start, as a receiver.

Can someone please call Julio Jones and tell him he needs to show up for games? Against the Saints, the Falcons seemingly scored at will, yet Julio managed just one catch for seven yards. As the team improves around him, the concern I have is that the team simply doesn’t need him to be heavily involved in order to win. Fantasy WR1s are heavily involved in their team’s offense. Carolina is a tough matchup, as evidenced by them shutting down fantasy’s number one wide receiver through two weeks, Stefon Diggs. Julio is already dropping in my rankings.

Seattle at New York (Jets)

Another off-season favorite of mine, Doug Baldwin, is off to a fine start in 2016 having effectively proven that he is the Seahawks WR1 with no real competition for the crown. His stat line has been reflecting it, and the Jets have been getting burned by receivers all year. Throw in that Darrelle Revis sustained an ankle injury this week, and everything is set up for continued success for Baldwin. In forecasting, consistent and repeated outcomes form a trend, and in turn the forecast is increased. Doug is trending up.

Going in the opposite direction is Brandon Marshall, who may be trending down. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw up an absurd number of picks in week three, and seemingly the entire receiving corps, Marshall included, is injured. So with Marshall we’re looking at the confluence of increasing age, injuries, a questionable supporting cast, and a very stout Seahawks defense. All of that said, Marshall was drafted as an elite wide receiver and needs to produce like one despite situational shortcomings like this, or he needs to have his value lowered.

Oakland at Baltimore

Amari Cooper has had some nice games this year but nothing so far that I would contend justifies his draft position and value. Baltimore is giving up some really big games to wide receivers, particularly WR1’s. Amari needs to prove himself in a situation where others have succeeded in a similar role to maintain his value. Anything less could be indicative of him being undeserving of such high value.

To be clear, I don’t believe Terrance West has a legitimate shot at being the team’s top running back moving forward. It is becoming evident that Kenneth Dixon is the heir apparent; however, West still has a chance to carve out a role in a potential committee moving forward. Justin Forsett seems to be moving down the pecking order and Buck Allen can’t even make the active roster on game days. Watch for West to produce to see if he will maintain value.

Cleveland at Washington

The main thing I want to watch in this game between the Cleveland Terrelle Pryor’s and the Washington Redskins is Terrelle Pryor, to the shock of no one. His value is definitely on the rise, as I personally received trade offers for him in every league that I own him this week. The thing with him is that we don’t even know what he is as a commodity yet. His value still has room to grow, and the only way to know if it will is to wait and watch. Being involved in the running, passing, and receiving game makes his ceiling immense. Latest news on Josh Gordon is he is on the outs with Cleveland, giving Pryor even more opportunity.

Jamison Crowder is a man I touted the first two weeks of the season as a guy to watch for value gain. Week four is on our doorstep and I’m back on the Crowder train. While he didn’t convert any of his opportunities in the red zone, the fact that he is getting so many is good for his future value. He still has room to grow in value if he can convert red zone opportunities and regress to the mean for red zone production. He has already proven he is heavily involved in the Redskins plans regardless of game script and field position.

Late Games

Denver at Tampa Bay

If you saw Trevor Siemian’s week three performance against the Bengals coming, then congratulations are in order because you are a fantasy God and I hope to never do anything to incur your wrath. For us mere mortals, seeing something like that is a fool me once, fool me twice proposition. So what I want to see is if he can repeat against a beatable Buccaneers secondary. If he can, it is possible he holds off presumed eventual starter Paxton Lynch longer than expected.

A big time wide receiver, Mike Evans has been feasting so far this year with high targets, touchdowns, and yardage totals. The Denver defense is a tough one, to be sure, but big time wide receivers do big time things despite situations like this. I’ll continue to move Evans up my rankings as long as he keeps proving that he deserves it.

Los Angeles at Arizonagurley

The stats and narrative said that Tampa Bay had an elite run blocking unit and that the Rams couldn’t develop a run game because of a lackluster passing game. Then, Todd Gurley exploded for two touchdowns and a productive day on the road. He has a chance to do so again against a stout Cardinals defense that just got lit up by LeSean McCoy. A big theme this week for me is consistency. Gurley is no different, as I want to see consistency out of him now that we have seen production in 2016. David Johnson already passed him on my value board, he needs to show he deserves to not be passed by Ezekiel Elliot.

Larry Fitzgerald has the look of being his team’s WR1 yet again, and the Rams have been getting torched by WR1’s this year. The expectation entering 2016 was that John Brown and Michael Floyd would eat into Fitzgerald’s opportunity, but that is not materializing. We need to realize our error and saddle up on the fact that Fitzgerald is an excellent target for a contender as his value is going up, but only for teams that can capitalize on it in the short term.

Dallas at San Francisco

He hasn’t lit the world on fire with passing touchdowns yet, but Dak Prescott has the early look of an efficient franchise quarterback. He is playing both within his skill set and his offense, and the results have been phenomenal. The team looks far better with Dak under center than it did last year with more experienced backups at the helm in Tony Romo’s stead. As noted last week, continue to watch the rapport he builds with receivers, especially while Dez Bryant is out.

Look out world, Carlos Hyde is a fantasy relevant running back on a bad team. With four touchdowns in the first three games of 2016, eyes should be on him. Doubly so when you consider that Dallas is allowing a hefty amount of production to opposing running backs and that the running backs they have allowed that production to are not world beaters. I expect a strong start to continue for Hyde and his value should be on the rise.

New Orleans at San Diego

No Willie Snead? No Problem. Michael Thomas looks more than capable of stepping up to the plate for the Saints when called upon. Don’t get me wrong, Snead is a valuable piece of this offense and they may have stood a better chance of winning in week three with him on the field; but, we are talking about fantasy football values here, and Thomas is on the rise after a nice start to his rookie campaign.

Fresh off of an evisceration by the Falcons tailbacks, the Saints defense draws a surging Melvin Gordon on his home field. Scoreless through his rookie campaign, he now has four touchdowns in three weeks to start 2016, having scored at least one in each week. Lacking true competition in the Chargers backfield, expectation is that Gordon should eat. Four weeks of production, including touchdowns, is enough to move a guy up rankings precipitously as that production gets factored into his forecast and projections.

Sunday Night

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

This figures to be a fun game to watch. Spencer Ware is in line for another workhorse role with Jamaal Charles figuring to have a minimal role at best if he suits up. Charcandrick West has already been ruled out. Having proven himself in all facets of the running and passing game for a running back, this is a big game on a big stage where Ware can put his stamp on his future role. If he continues to thrive, his value will continue to surge. Andy Reid’s offenses typically feature one running back, and Charles appears to be legitimately struggling to return to game form. The upside here may be bigger than we were previously willing to admit.

He’s back, and just in time! Le’Veon Bell returns as DeAngelo Williams’ efficiency is fading. Reports are that they will both be used together and Bell could see time in the slot as a receiver. This can only be a boon to his value, as he is an excellent receiver and can make defenders miss in the open field. After an offseason of tumbling value for Bell, let’s sit back and enjoy the show to see if he turns his value train around.

Monday Night

New York (Giants) at Minnesota

Odell Beckham, Jr. has not been putting up OBJ-like production in 2016. I posit this is for a number of reasons: Sterling Shepard’s emergence, Victor Cruz’s return, the lack of a run game, and relatively strong outside corner matchups to start the season. Regardless, this is OBJ, the consensus #1 dynasty asset we are talking about here. The Vikings just shut down Kelvin Benjamin, and I don’t care. Produce, Odell, and quick. It wouldn’t be a massive slide, but I would be comfortable with moving Antonio Brown ahead of him on value if he doesn’t return to form despite the youth revolution in dynasty value.

On the opposite end of the spectrum for production vs. expectation, Stefon Diggs has absolutely blown up so far in 2016. He fell off a bit against a tough Panthers team, and the draw isn’t much better against the Giants secondary. Even with that, the Giants defense is weak in the middle of the field and Diggs has the chops to play all over the field. His value is on a sharp ascent to date and it still has plenty of room to grow.

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