AFC Off-Season Storylines

Ryan McDowell

tannehill-millerThis time of year is among my favorite parts of the football season. Not only do we still have some very meaningful games to enjoy each week, but the diehard dynasty owners are still chugging along in an effort to build a championship roster. There truly is no off-season!

At DLF, we have begun our Dynasty Capsules, an in-depth look at the offensive skill players for each team, including an analysis of players’ past performances along with some projections going forward. To accompany that series, I wanted to share some off-season storylines I’ll be watching play out for each NFL team. Many of these are similar as they have to do with new coaches, free agency and the NFL Draft, all major events of every off-season. Let’s get to it!

New England Patriots

The Patriots are in the midst of another impressive run, winning a division title and ten or more games for the thirteenth time in the past 15 years. They have done this despite multiple injuries and a lack of star power on offense. This season, they turned Dion Lewis into a valuable fantasy asset before he suffered a season ending injury. They also ran out a group of relative no-names following the injury to Julian Edelman. While both Lewis and Edelman are expected to be back to full strength in 2016, it is always difficult to predict who the Patriots will turn to and how consistent that usage will be on a weekly basis.

New York Jets

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In one of the season’s biggest surprises, the Jets’ offense clicked on all cylinders, essentially all season as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chris Ivory enjoyed career years and Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker proved they were nowhere near done as high scoring fantasy producers. While Bilal Powell played out of his mind in the season’s final month, the Jets face a tough decision as Ivory enters free agency. I’m not sure he played well enough to demand a long-term contract extension, but they can’t fell confident handing the job to a combination of Powell and Stevan Ridley.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills made one of the off-season’s biggest moves a year ago, trading for running back LeSean McCoy. They then took a shot on rookie Karlos Williams late in the NFL Draft. While Williams didn’t clearly outplay the veteran McCoy, he at least made it a conversation. Both players dealt with injuries over the season which limited their overall respective production as McCoy finished at RB19 with Williams at RB38 in PPR leagues. I’ve seen no rumors of the Bills parting ways with McCoy, but if Williams can stay healthy in 2016, that could signal the end of Shady’s tenure in Buffalo.

Miami Dolphins

After a disappointing season in South Beach, the Dolphins now have their third head coach in the past few months as they have hired former Bears’ offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Gase was considered by most to be the top head coach candidate on the market, so it’s a good hire, on paper. Gase and his staff face some difficult decisions this off-season, primarily what to do with free agent to be Lamar Miller. Miller was one of the top fantasy running backs this season after a bad start, but it has become rare in today’s NFL to give any running back a big contract. If the team lets Miller walk, they could turn to rookie Jay Ajayi as their starter.

Cincinnati Bengals

After the Bengals’ season ended in the worst way imaginable, their wide receiver depth chart is suddenly very ugly. While top dog AJ Green is back, both Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu are entering free agency, leaving Mario Alford as the team’s second wide receiver, for the moment. It is obviously crucial the team brings back at least one of these players and adds some depth through free agency or the NFL Draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Considering the injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell this season, the Steelers exceeded expectations by making the playoffs and upending division rival Cincinnati. With Bell now suffering season-ending injuries in two of his three seasons, it may be time we consider him an injury risk. I know some don’t buy into players being “injury prone” but considering the number of touches Bell has and will receive, it is difficult to include him in the game’s top flaccotier of players, which is made up almost exclusively of wide receivers.

Baltimore Ravens

Speaking of injuries, no team had it worse than the Ravens this season. Baltimore lost Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Steve Smith and Crockett Gillmore to season ending injuries and rookie Breshad Perriman never even saw the field. Flacco, who tore his ACL in November and didn’t undergo surgery until last month, will have to push it to be back and healthy in time for week one of the 2016 season. On top of that, the team has some pressing needs considering the age of Smith and Forsett.

Cleveland Browns

With a new head coach in Cleveland, we can expect many changes in the coming months. Two of the most discussed players in the league reside in Cleveland, for now at least. It seems to be inevitable the Browns will part ways with quarterback Johnny Manziel, who has declared his desire to land in Dallas. Meanwhile, one of the most talented receivers in the league, Josh Gordon, is expected to be reinstated and will be a player to watch this off-season.

Houston Texans

Outside of dominant receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans are simply lacking playmakers and once running back Arian Foster went down with a season-ending injury, the Houston running game was nearly non-existent. Now, rumors have the Texans cutting Foster this off-season, which would make sense considering the injury and his upcoming hefty salary. The question becomes who will the Texans turn to as their starter? Neither Alfred Blue nor Chris Polk appears to be the answer, so the team could look to sign a free agent, such as the previously mentioned Lamar Miller.

Indianapolis Colts

One of the major disappointments of the season was the Indianapolis Colts, who struggled all season, even before the injury suffered by quarterback Andrew Luck. The prevailing opinion is that Luck will bounce back in 2016 and that is fair to expect, but his pass catchers could look very different. Both of the Colts’ top tight ends, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, are free agents and the team could part ways with free agent bust Andre Johnson.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars’ young offense was one of the top stories this season as sophomore Blake Bortles finished as a top five quarterback and both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns greatly increased their respective dynasty value. Hurns was the WR18, while Robinson has cracked the elite tier thanks to a WR6 finish. For the team to take the next step, they need better and more consistent play for Bortles, who despite his high fantasy finish, still threw a league high 18 interceptions. Also, the Jaguars will expect running back TJ Yeldon to step up in his second season.

Tennessee Titans

Yet another team with a head coaching decision to make this off-season has chosen and many are not happy. The Titans have opted to retain their interim coach Mike Mularkey, an uninspiring choice to lead a team including talented players like Marcus Mariota and Dorial Green-Beckham. With the additional hire of offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie, the Titans are cementing themselves as a team I will avoid in fantasy drafts.

Denver Broncos

Typically, a team enjoying the level of success the Denver Broncos have this season are not expected to endure a tumultuous off-season, but that is just what is in store for the team that will battle for a Super Bowl berth next weekend. We’ve all seen the quarterback situation play out this year and while the team somehow earned the AFC’s top seed, it did in spite of their quarterback play, not because of it. Although Peyton Manning is under contract in 2016, there is almost no chance he will return. If he surprises everyone and does not announce his retirement, the Broncos will almost certainly release the future Hall of Famer. Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler looked like the savior for a while, before being sent back to the bench and now he enters an off-season of uncertainty as a free agent. On top of all that, Denver’s running back duo of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson are also both free agents. This could look like a very different team in 2016.west

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs made a valiant comeback attempt in the back half of the season to make the playoffs. Making that run even more impressive was that they accomplished that without All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles. Both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware stepped up and filled Charles’ role admirably and may have earned a role for next season in the process. The dynasty community though, looks forward to the return of one of the game’s most talented players and Charles may even come at a discount given his injury. He is a player I’ll be inquiring about in most of my leagues.

Oakland Raiders

For the first time in a long time, the Raiders actually looked very good this season. They weren’t able to turn that into a playoff berth, but there is certainly hope for the future. Much like the Jaguars, Oakland and their talented young offense just needs to continue to improve. The trio of Derek Carr, Latavius Murray and Amari Cooper and the cornerstones of what could be a multiple year run of contention in the AFC West. I’m anxious to see who the Raiders add to this talented group.

San Diego Chargers

I’ve mentioned many teams facing tough decisions this off-season and the Chargers have the biggest of all as they consider a potential move to Los Angeles, joining the Rams, who have already bolted from St. Louis. Besides this crucial determination, the tight end position is also up in the air as Antonio Gates has hinted he wants to return for yet another season and talented Ladarius Green will be a free agent. It seems almost certain that Green will bolt, and possibly earn a larger role elsewhere.

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ryan mcdowell