The Dynasty Price is Right: Off-Season Edition

Andrew Lightner Posted On January 20, 2016

dorsett Welcome to the off-season edition of ‘The Dynasty Price is Right’. If the title sounds familiar, that’s because we ran this series during the season for several weeks. Unfortunately I had matters arise I had to attend to while putting writing on hold for a bit, which subsequently ended the series a couple weeks early.

I’m happy to announce that the series is back, and I am excited to be writing it for all you readers. We are going to introduce a little twist to the series for the off-season, however. If you read any of my articles during the season, you may recall that the basis revolved around trade prices and identifying what I felt was good buys. This off-season edition instead is going to shift the focus to another vital part of dynasty football – start up drafts. A start up draft is the foundation you lay down for your dynasty team; and the strength of that foundation relies upon how well you navigate through it. My goal for this series is to help identify what I believe are good value picks, and in doing so hopefully help make sure you gain some edges in value, both big and small, in drafting your dynasty roster.

Once a month, I will use DLF’s very own monthly ADP data as my guide to help identify these value picks, which I will then be highlighting in my article for that month. I will also attempt to put my own personal draft strategy biases aside and try to pick out various players for each type of draft strategy. So without further ado, let me dive right in and introduce you to my picks based on DLF’s January ADP data.

Joe Flacco — Average ADP 238 (equates to a mid-to-late 19th round pick), QB32

For all of you who frequently wait on quarterbacks, essentially ‘punting’ the position, here is a perfect player for your strategy. I know, the Ravens had an abysmal season, but let me give you a couple reasons why I believe Flacco being the 32nd quarterback off the board is great value for whoever is able to nab him this late. First, let me show you why he was not as bad as you might believe he was: during the games he played, Flacco averaged 18.9 fantasy points a game; and that’s including his horrific week one performance where he failed to score even five points. This gives him a better per game average over Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, and is within a single point of Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, and Philip Rivers. So even in such a down season for his team, he still managed respectable numbers from a fantasy perspective before getting injured.

While Flacco will likely never be a ‘stud’ quarterback from a fantasy perspective, being the 32nd off the board at his position is barely even putting him at a value of a QB3 on a dynasty team. I believe this is a mistake, for I think he can be a completely passable backup quarterback for any dynasty team. While he may not have the greatest weapons at his disposal, we do know Marc Trestman has always had a fantasy friendly offense (even if he was perhaps an underwhelming head coach). Couple that with the fact that Flacco is a very solid ‘real life’ quarterback on a team that is known as one of the best overall organizations, and I think it’s perfectly reasonable to think that he can obtain at a minimum a middle-of-the-road QB2 type of season. To get a mid-QB2 for the meager price that he is going right now? I consider that an easy value pick in my book.

Josh Gordon — Average ADP 55.67 (equates to a mid 4th round pick), WR35

I don’t even think I need to state why this is a risky selection, and I will admit that I was even a bit hesitant to suggest him (mostly because I don’t want things thrown at my head in reaction). If you are drafting with the strategy of competing for a championship year one, I would advise you shy away from this selection and go elsewhere. However, if you are a person who prefers punting year one (or productive struggle, or whichever term you prefer using), then I think that Gordon is worth at least considering. Mainly because if I am punting year one, the two main attributes I look to acquire throughout my start up draft is youth and upside. A mid fourth round selection may sound a bit high, but I also think part of that is due to the fact that more and more owners are adopting a wide receiver-heavy draft approach. I believe my theory shows correct by seeing that Gordon is being the 35th wide receiver selected, yet still being a fourth round selection. Basically this is giving you the opportunity to draft a clear WR1 talent for the price of a low WR3 (albeit with risks, of course). If I am punting my first year, this is exactly the kind of upside I am looking to draft at a reduced price. [inlinead]

I want to quickly compare Josh Gordon to another similar type of wide receiver: Martavis Bryant. Their similarity is that both seem to have their issues staying away from the sticky-icky-icky (or replace with your slang word of choice for marijuana). Bryant is one slip up away from being in the exact shoes Gordon has found himself in, yet Bryant is being drafted in the second round. So they both have similar risks, yet Bryant is going almost twenty wide receivers earlier. And Gordon is the better receiver of the two! You may give the rebuttal that Martavis is in the much better offense, and that is undeniably true. However, in terms of fantasy, Gordon is clearly his team’s go-to wide receiver when on the field whereas Bryant is at best third in the pecking order on his team, after studs Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Plus, Gordon isn’t even a full year older than Martavis. My point is that if people are comfortable enough selecting Bryant in the second round (which I personally would not be), then Gordon as a mid-fourth round choice should be considered a value.

*as a side note, I do think that Gordon is a player whose ADP will rise throughout the off-season the closer he gets to making his way back on the field, so I don’t think this price will last.*

Bilal Powell — Average ADP 168.5 (equates to an early 14th round pick), RB52

I personally really like this pick for all of you who stick to a zero-RB draft strategy; especially if you are choosing a zero-RB strategy while also looking to compete this year. This is a perfect type of back to target really late who can help contribute points to your team. Does Powell have a high ceiling? No. Is he going to dazzle your league mates and bring compliments your way for making such a great late round selection? Doubt it. He’s nothing more than an equivalent to a solid role player in basketball. But not every running back on your roster can be an end-of-bench stash for the future; especially if you employ zero-RB strategy. Did you know that Powell scored double digit fantasy points in PPR leagues in five of the last six games, averaging just over 16ppg in that span? The Jets were definitely one of the most surprising offenses of this past season, and I suspect that they will attempt to change as little as possible to keep consistency and build upon what they accomplished in 2015. So while both Chris Ivory and Powell are free agents, I have a feeling that the Jets will try to bring both back and build off what worked for them on offense. Plus I don’t foresee any teams clamoring for Bilal Powell, as I think he’s probably more valuable to the Jets organization than what other teams would view him as. If what I believe holds true, I think then that the Jets running backs will stick closely to the same roles they played in 2015; that being Ivory as the early down runner and Powell as the change-of-pace and 3rd down back. We also know, however, that Ivory isn’t the most durable of backs. So not only would Powell give us cheap points at this price, but even give a little upside with a good chance to see an uptick in touches were Ivory to miss time with an injury.

Phillip Dorsett — Average ADP 93.33 (equates to a mid 7th round pick), WR49

This is another selection leaning toward those punting year one. The Indianapolis Colts have an offense that I will be looking to buy into at a discount this off-season. The biggest reason being I still whole-heartedly believe Andrew Luck is a stud talent, and I want to get my hands on anyone that is one of his weapons. This is the perfect chance to do so because of the Colts woes in 2015. Any of you who know me know that I am a fan of TY Hilton and love Donte Moncrief, one could argue that Dorsett offers you the most potential bang for your buck out of the three in relation to their corresponding prices. Dorsett has become a mostly forgotten man, but let’s not forget all the rave surrounding him prior to this past season, and the fact that they selected him in the first round of the last NFL rookie draft. Obviously the Colts as an organization think quite highly of this kid if they were willing to spend a first round selection on a position that wasn’t even seen as a need for them. I know I really liked him coming out of college; and while his situation is a littler murky due to the competition at his position, I have learned from past experiences not to let murky situations sway you from talent. I remember being in love with Randall Cobb, but shied away from him because I couldn’t foresee enough opportunities for Cobb with all the wide receiver Green Bay had at the time he entered the league. That really ended up biting me in the…you know what. I don’t want to make that sort of mistake again. So I will gladly take the talent of Dorsett and the upside of a high octane offense at a reasonable price, at least if I am punting year one.

There were plenty of other players I really liked while sifting through January’s ADP data, so check back for February’s installment where I am sure I will touch on a couple of those players who didn’t make it into this article. Hope you enjoy the read; now go join some leagues and get to drafting! Because it’s NEVER too early for a start up draft.

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