FanDuel Bargains: Week Three
Editor’s Note: We’re going to bring you an unprecedented amount of content this year during the season, mostly dynasty related. However, seeing the explosion of DFS games, we’ll also be providing daily coverage. Even if you don’t play in DFS games, these articles can help you in making lineup decisions or judge the current value of your dynasty assets.
Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.
Keep in mind that these suggestions relate to GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments with more than 50 participants where players are looking for bargains to fill out their lineups after already inserting their “studs” for the week. Many of them are risky plays and shouldn’t necessarily take into account for head-to-head or 50/50 games.
Quarterback
Andrew Luck, QB IND $7,600
Andrew Luck will be taking on the San Diego Chargers which will be the first opportunity for Luck to take a breath from constant pressure. The Chargers defensive is the 23rd rank overall, and most importantly 29th against the pass.
Luck got swarmed in Denver last week. He kept the team within striking distance but his fantasy numbers were no bueno. He finished with just 197 yards and a touchdown. I expect this week to be closer to week one when he tossed for 385 yards and four touchdowns.
Both Blake Bortles and Alex Smith obliterated this defense. The two quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers are a team Luck should exploit. Cautionary would be his shoulder. He missed Wednesday’s practice and had been in light practice and Donte Moncrief will be out.
The over/under is 52 points and Vegas favors the Colts by three points at home.
Others to Consider:
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Marcus Mariota, QB TEN $7,700
Mariota completed 25 of 33 passes for 238 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in Sunday’s win over the Lions. He struggled in the first half as he had only 81 passing yards and the Titans trailed 15-3. The game winning drive is where he shined. Starting at their own seven, He drove Tennessee down the field and finished off with a touchdown pass to Andre Johnson for the 16-15 victory.
Mariota has not been using his legs all that much compared to last season. Six carries for 30-yards, but you can count on him for around 250-yards and at least one touchdown. One of the problems he has carried forward is his interception rate. He has two on the season, but has four touchdowns.
The Titans will take on the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, and the Raiders defense has not been as good as many thought they would be. However, they have played two teams with talented offenses in New Orleans, and Atlanta.
The Titans are 1.5 favorites and the over/under is 47 points.
Basement Pick:
Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA $7,400
It didn’t look good for most of the game for Ryan Tannehill and the rest of the Dolphins. The Patriots had a 24-0 lead before the offense showed up. In the end Tannehill completed 32 of 45 passes for 389 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions
On the season Tannehill is 48 of 74 for 573 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions and has one rushing score. His week two was much more of a solid performance than week one against Seattle.
This week he will take on the sieve that is the Cleveland Browns defense. The Brownies have allowed 286 yards a game in the passing department, and allowed 278 yards and two touchdowns to rookie Carson Wentz, and 260 yards and two scores to Joe Flacco.
The Dolphins are 9.5 favorites and the over/under is 42 points.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon, RB SDC $7,100
Melvin Gordon has gone from zero touchdowns to three in two games. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars Gordon rushed 24 times for 102 yards and a touchdown while securing all three of his targets for 18 more. In the first two games he has rushed for 159 yards.
The opportunity may now grow for Gordon as Danny Woodhead is now out for the season. On the bonus side the Chargers will play the Colts. As we seen in the last two games, the Colts defense has been a welcome mat for running backs.
Indianapolis has the 29th ranked rushing defense and 30th overall. San Diego will give all the carries that Gordon can handle, and he shouldn’t disappoint owners.
The Colts are favored by three with an over/under of 52 points.
Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE $6,900
Not really much hope in almost any Cleveland offensive or defensive unit. Isaiah Crowell busted loose last week when he finished with 133 rushing yards and one that went for an 85-yard touchdown. The negative aspect is that he had just 48-yards on the remaining 17 carries (2.82 yards per carry).
In week one, he was much better, as he rushed 12 times for 62 yards (5.16 yards per carry) and a touchdown. Now he will face the Miami Dolphins which as a team is averaging 128.5 rushing yards against this season.
He will also have rookie quarterback Cody Kessler under center, which means that he should get a full load of carries. The only drawback will be if Kessler can keep Miami’s defense at bay enough from stacking ann 11-man box (sarcasm).
The Miami Dolphins are 9.5 points favorites with an over/under of 42 points.
Others to Consider:
Matt Forte, RB NYJ $7,500
Not too many fantasy owners though Matt Forte was going to be much of anything. Maybe a third down back, but not the one that has rushed for 196 yards and three touchdowns in just two games. When you toss in the fact that he also has caught seven passes for 67 yards it becomes pretty impressive.
Now Forte will battle the Kansas City Chiefs defense that has given up 155 yards on the ground to San Diego and 97 yards to Houston. With these types of numbers it is nobody’s guess why the Chiefs are the 30th ranked defense against the rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3 points favorites at home and the over/under is 42.
Frank Gore, RB IND $5,700
People see Frank Gore and think old and not capable. Gore makes the great contrarian play however. There will be a few times this season that he will get recommended and this week is one of those.
Against Denver Gore rushed for 44 yards on 13 carries in Sunday’s loss to Denver. He added 19 yards and a touchdown off of three catches. Gore remains the primary back, but it seems that both Josh Ferguson and Robert Turbin are taking touches away.
The Colts will face the Chargers this Sunday and their defense isn’t very good. Overall, they rank 22nd and seventh against the rush. But with the focus on Luck and most likely a lot of fireworks in this contest, look for Gore to do well on Sunday.
The over/under is 52 points and Vegas favors the Colts by three points at home.
Basement Pick:
Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN $5,300
With the injury to Adrian Peterson the door now swings wide for Jerick McKinnon. We don’t know how much of an effect McKinnon will have on the game or what his role be, due to both the signing of Ronnie Hillman and the Matt Asiata factor. I am personally more worried this week about Asiata than Hillman.
I do like this matchup against the Carolina Panthers. They were gashed by Denver, but held strong against the 49ers which might have more to do with the thrashing they gave them than run containment.
The other thing that worries me a little is that Vegas doesn’t believe this will be a very high scoring game. They must be counting on the tough defense of both teams. Even so, I like McKinnon because he will be tested and should be given a good sample size of carries to prove his worth, the market price he is listed at, and his value to catch the ball out of the backfield will give him a boost.
The Carolina Panthers are seven points favorites and the over/under of 43 points.
Wide Receiver
Sterling Shepherd, WR $6,500
It’s always good to look at a player you think will do well at a solid market price and see that they are playing a weak defense. Those were my thoughts on Sterling Shepherd against the Washington Redskins defense.
Shepherd has played a key role in the Giants offense, and seems to have continued the trend he set in the preseason. Through two games, Shepard has played on 94.8% of the Giants’ offensive snaps and has caught 11 of his 12 targets for 160 yards and a touchdown.
Josh Norman will line up against Odell Beckham for most of the game freeing up Shepherd against Bashaud Breeland. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Breeland is grading out at 41.8 which should give plenty of opportunities for Shepherd to do what he does.
The Redskins defense ranks 20th against the pass and overall rank of 26th.
The New York Giants are favored by 4.5 points and the over/under is 46.
Tajae Sharpe, WR TEN $5,800
Sharpe was held to just four catches for 33 yards on seven targets by the Lions on Sunday. It was a long first half for the Titans before they could get anything going. In fact, Sharpe was only targeted once in the first two-quarters of play.
Even though it was a slow day at the office compared to his first two starts, he still leads the team in targets and should Marcus Mariota should continue to target him. He will be restricted however as the offense calls for shorter patterns as his 9.9 yards per reception indicates.
More than likely Sharpe will draw David Amerson who has been a shutdown corner thus far. He is grading out to be 83.2 on PFF. The Oakland Raiders defense has hemorrhaged the most fantasy points to the wideout position so far in 2016.
The Tennessee Titans are 1.5 favorites at home and the over/under is 47.
Others to Consider:
Phillip Dorsett, WR IND $6,000
Now that Donte Moncrief will be out for four to six weeks with a fractured scapula the Colts are going to need to rely on Philip Dorsett to be the game changer. Head coach Chuck Pagano said “he’s confident” that Dorsett will be able to take a larger role in the offense, and most likely will need him too.
The Chargers are going to focus more on stopping T.Y. Hilton therefore leaving Dorsett in single coverage which he should easily beat. Andrew Luck should exploit this, and I can see several deep throws going to Dorsett’s direction.
The over/under is 52 points and Vegas favors the Colts by three points at home.
Stefon Diggs, WR MIN $6,400
Yes the Vikings are taking on the Carolina Panthers in what is assumed to be a low scoring game, but that doesn’t mean the right marketplace in combination with athletic skill won’t make the purchase worth it.
Stefon Diggs obliterated the Green Bay Packers defense when he came down with nine catches on 11 targets for 182 yards and a touchdown. Overall, Diggs has caught 16 passes on 20 targets, while racking up 285 yards. I think the Vikings found their receiver, and they didn’t have to go around “digging” for it.
What I also took from that game is the chemistry that Sam Bradford had with Diggs. It seemed as though Bradford couldn’t take his eyes off of him and continued to hit him with pass after pass. With the Carolina defense more than likely going to focus their efforts on him, the Vikings are going to need to find a way to get him more involved in the offense. Carolina is sixth overall and sixth against the pass.
The Carolina Panthers are seven points favorites and the over/under of 43 points.
Tight Ends
Dennis Pitta, TE BAL $5,000
Dennis Pitta has come from the depths of the IR to show he hasn’t lost any of his steps. He looked super good against the Browns with 12 targets, nine catches and 102 receiving yards in the victory.
His first game back wasn’t what dreams are made of, but he turned it up in week two, and now will face the Jaguars that have a better defense statistically than what they are right now. They are ranked seventh against the pass and 11th overall. I believe this game will have some fireworks to it, and Pitta should be looked at often. Pitta currently leads the Ravens in targets, receptions and receiving yards this season.
The Baltimore Ravens are one point favorites and the over/under of 47 points.
Others to Consider:
Dwayne Allen, TE IND $6,100
With the injury to Donte Moncrief the roles slide up now in Indianapolis. Andrew Luck will rely more on Dwayne Allen and the rest of the crew. In week one, Allen was targeted heavily against Detroit, but against a much tougher Denver defense he was limited. In the end, Allen had two receptions for 25 yards on four targets in Sunday’s loss at Denver.
This week he will face the San Diego Chargers at home and Allen should revert to the role he had against the Lions. The Chargers defense are poor in defending the pass in the first two games of the season. They are ranked 28th against the pass and 22nd overall.
The over/under is 52 points and Vegas favors the Colts by three points at home.
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- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - October 1, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - September 24, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Two - September 17, 2017
