Dynasty Stock Market: Running Back Value

Ryan McDowell Posted On September 23, 2016

In last week’s regular season debut of the Dynasty Stock Market, I dug deep into my recently updated quarterback rankings and now it’s time to give the same treatment to the running back spot. I found myself making many drastic updates as running backs underperform or outperform expectations and others deal with serious injuries. The regular season has a way of greatly changing our perception and the way we value players in dynasty leagues.

As I mentioned in the quarterback piece, I rarely spend up on the running back position. I avoid drafting any running backs early in startup drafts and can never convince myself to pay the price it takes to acquire an upper echelon back. Because of that, most of my teams are filled with PPR specialists who are often easier to acquire. Many of these players can be found in my third and fourth tiers. I am perfectly comfortable managing contending teams that lack a top tier running back. When it comes to rookie drafts, I pounce on backs in the second and third rounds. This usually gives me some much needed depth, even when some of these players bust.

Tier One

RB1 Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (21 years old)

RB2 Todd Gurley, LA (22)

RB3 David Johnson, ARZ (24)

RB4 Le’Veon Bell, PIT (24)

The top tier is certainly an interesting group with the disappointing play of Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley early this season and the continued off-field issues of Le’Veon Bell. Those factors have many now valuing Arizona’s David Johnson as the top overall back in dynasty leagues. While his dynamic talent makes him fun to watch, I’m not quite ready to rank him in my top spot. In the end though, there is little difference in value between these four and while there have been some frustrating moments, I’d gladly take any of these players on my team.

Tier Two

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

RB5 Lamar Miller, HOU (25)

RB6 Derrick Henry, TEN (22)

RB7 Melvin Gordon, SD (23)

RB8 Devonta Freeman, ATL (24)

RB9 Mark Ingram, NO (26)

I actually see quite a bit of difference between the first and second tiers. Included in this group are a pair of young running backs who have quickly moved up my rankings in rookie Derrick Henry and Charger Melvin Gordon. I am not willing to “buy high” on either player, but I can see both continuing to climb dynasty ranks over the coming months. I am a bit concerned with the Falcons Devonta Freeman given the new look committee attack in Atlanta. If this keeps up, he will likely be moving down to that deep third tier.

Tier Three

RB10 Carlos Hyde, SF (25)

RB11 Eddie Lacy, GB (25)

RB12 CJ Anderson, DEN (25)

RB13 Doug Martin, TB (27)

RB14 Jamaal Charles, KC (29)

RB15 Duke Johnson, CLE (22)

RB16 Giovani Bernard, CIN (24)

RB17 TJ Yeldon, JAX (22)

RB18 LeSean McCoy, BUF (28)

RB19 Adrian Peterson, MIN (31)

RB20 Jeremy Hill, CIN (23)

RB21 Ameer Abdullah, DET (23)

RB22 Thomas Rawls, SEA (23)

RB23 Matt Forte, NYJ (30)

RB24 DeMarco Murray, TEN (28)

RB25 Kenneth Dixon, BAL (22)

RB26 Tevin Coleman, ATL (23)

RB27 Theo Riddick, DET (25)

RB28 CJ Prosise, SEA (22)

RB29 Charles Sims, TB (26)

RB30 Jerick McKinnon, MIN (24)

RB31 Latavius Murray, OAK (26)

RB32 Ryan Mathews, PHI (28)

I am sure many would argue the first several players on this list belong in tier two, and I understand that. If CJ Anderson keeps up his high level of play, he could be the next to get a bump up the rankings. Otherwise, I think we’ve seen reasons to doubt most of these players, even if those reasons are age or recent injuries.

The group at the top, including Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, Carlos Hyde and Jamaal Charles are some of the players I try to avoid in trade talks. They still have the name value that goes along with their status as former top tier backs, meaning they cost substantially more than they should. If you can take advantage of that as an owner of any of these players, now is the time to pounce.

Some players I would be targeting in this tier include Kenneth Dixon, Tevin Coleman and Theo Riddick. Essentially, any of the players in this tier I could acquire for a future second round pick would likely end up on my roster.

Tier Four

RB33 Christine Michael, SEA (25)

RB34 Spencer Ware, KC (24)

RB35 Dion Lewis, NE (25)

RB36 Devontae Booker, DEN (24)

RB37 Jeremy Langford, CHI (24)

RB38 Matt Jones, WAS (23)

RB39 Jonathan Stewart, CAR (29)

RB40 DeAndre Washington, OAK (23)

RB41 DeAngelo Williams, PIT (33)

RB42 Paul Perkins, NYG (21)

RB43 Jay Ajayi, MIA (23)

RB44 Jordan Howard, CHI (21)

RB45 Arian Foster, MIA (30)

RB46 Kenyan Drake, MIA (22)

RB47 Chris Ivory, JAX (28)

RB48 Frank Gore, IND (33)

RB49 Isaiah Crowell, CLE (23)

RB50 Shane Vereen, NYG (27)

RB51 LeGarrette Blount, NE (29)

RB52 Bilal Powell, NYJ (27)

RB53 Rashad Jennings, NYG (31)

This fourth tier includes a mixed bag of underperforming starters, high upside rookies and career-long committee backs. Each of these players can certainly be useful and they do have dynasty value, though it can be argued how much, if any, trade value they actually possess. While some of these players are obviously on the back end of their careers, others have the chance to gain value as their role in an offense grows. This includes Devontae Booker, Jordan Howard and DeAndre Washington, among others.

This tier, along with the one above it, are where most running backs on my roster come from. I normally try to buy veterans from these tiers during the off-season when so many dynasty owners are focused on acquiring youth. Now that the season has begun, some younger players who may not be seeing immediate playing time are being forgotten. This is the perfect time to make an offer for rookies who have yet to make a splash.

Tier Five

RB54 Danny Woodhead, SD (31)

RB55 Tyler Ervin, HOU (22)

RB56 Chris Thompson, WAS (25)

RB57 Dwayne Washington, DET (20)

RB58 Wendell Smallwood, PHI (22)

RB59 Shaun Draughn, SF (28)

RB60 James White, NE (24)

RB61 Jonathan Williams, BUF (22)

RB62 Tim Hightower, NO (30)

RB63 Josh Ferguson, IND (23)

RB64 Charcandrick West, KC (25)

RB65 Alex Collins, SEA

RB66 Malcolm Brown, LA (23)

RB67 Alfred Morris, DAL (27)

RB68 James Starks, GB (30)

RB69 Tyreek Hill, KC (22)

RB70 DJ Foster, NE (22)

RB71 Karlos Williams, FA (23)

RB72 Javorius Allen, BAL (25)

RB73 Terrance West, BAL (25)

RB74 Justin Forsett, BAL (30)

RB75 Peyton Barber, TB (22)

RB76 Keith Marshall, WAS (22)

RB77 Darren McFadden, DAL (29)

RB78 Benny Cunningham, LA (26)

This is the tier of backs that are borderline worthy of a roster spot, depending on the size of the league and number of roster spots. These players have a glimmer of hope and the younger they are, the better option they typically would be.

I generally play in leagues with at least 24 roster spots and the majority of these backs are rostered in those formats, but smaller rosters would obviously push many of these players to the waiver wire.

Tier Six

RB79 Darren Sproles, PHI (33)

RB80 Bishop Sankey, NE (24)

RB81 CJ Spiller, FA (29)

RB82 Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (26)

RB83 Chris Johnson, ARZ (30)

RB84 Andre Ellington, ARZ (27)

RB85 Daniel Lasco, NO (23)

RB86 Kenneth Farrow, SD (23)

RB87 Zach Zenner, DET (25)

RB88 Lance Dunbar, DAL (26)

RB89 Ka’Deem Carey, CHI (23)

RB90 Terrell Watson, CLE (23)

RB91 Khiry Robinson, FA (26)

RB92 Mike Davis, SF (23)

RB93 Darius Jackson, DAL (22)

RB94 Ronnie Hillman, FA (25)

RB95 Alfred Blue, HOU (25)

RB96 Kelvin Taylor, SF (20)

RB97 Dexter McCluster, SD (28)

RB98 Devon Johnson, CAR (23)

RB99 Antonio Andrews, TEN (24)

RB100 Damien Williams, MIA (24)

The final tier is a deep one and filled with players that belong on the waiver wire in most dynasty formats. Terrell Watson and Khiry Robinson were a mainstay on many dynasty rosters throughout the off-season, but couldn’t stick on an active roster as the season neared.

[/am4show]

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.