DLF’s 2016 IDP Predictions: Most Overvalued Player

Eric Olinger

I love this time of year. Even though most of our dynasty league drafts have long come and gone, there’s plenty of maneuvering to do through the month of August and into September. My favorite articles to read anywhere, not just at DLF, are roundtable type of articles. It’s awesome to hear the opinions of many fantasy football analysts when they’re asked the same question in the same context. The IDP team at DLF was asked to give their answers to who they thought would finish 2016 as the:

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Mychal Kendricks, WLB PHI- Kendricks is often ranked as a top 20 linebacker but I prefer my linebackers to be durable. He hasn’t played a full season yet in his four year career and has already missed time during this training camp due to injury. – Alex Onuschco

Vinny Curry/Brandon Graham, DE PHI– Neither player is “special” (nor have they produced at a high level) and the assumption the scheme change/Schwartz will help seems unlikely to me. –Dan Sainio

Kam Chancellor, SS SEA- While a great NFL player, the 28-year-old Chancellor has not been a top-40 safety in fantasy scoring either of the last two years. The name and talent are bigger than the production.Jaron Foster

Malcolm Smith, WLB OAK- The presumption is Malcolm Smith will continue to perform at LB1 levels considering his 2015 season. There’s huge risk of a letdown in 2016, though. Ben Heeney will steal production from Smith and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Heeney outperform Smith in 2016. -­Steve Wyremski

Deone Bucannon, LB ARZ- I think a lot of people are still hoping he transitions BACK to safety at some point and its likely not going to happen. If you can get close to pre-designation change value for him, it’s time to sell. I have him slotted in as LB15 and that seems reasonable, but if you can get more for him, do it. –Adam Tzikas

Telvin Smith, WLB JAX- Right now I think Telvin Smith is the most overrated player. He is a fine player and will get his fair share of tackles, but Myles Jack is going to emerge as the linebacker to own in Jacksonville. Jack will play in the middle and end up with more fantasy points within his first two seasons. Smith will probably remain a LB1 this year, but will drop into the LB2 or LB3 range as Jack emerges. –Zach Bahnersmith

Harrison Smith, S MIN- Don’t get me wrong, I love Harrison Smith as a player.  However, I’ve owned him for years and watched his stats decline somewhat under Zimmer, yet people value him the same.  He is no longer untouchable for me. –Trevor Bucher

J.J. Watt, DE HOU- I don’t normally write about IDP but when I do my opinions are highly controversial. Watt is overvalued due to his age and injury history. All positions have an age curve that determines the average career length for players, and at 27 years old, Watt is approaching the age apex for his position. He should be productive for years to come, but don’t be surprised if Watt’s elite defensive end production curtails in a few years, taking away his status as the plug and play IDP-Konami code. –Bruce Matson

Josh Norman, CB WAS- Josh Norman was all over the news last year and, possibly, rightly so. He had a good season and was very tough to throw against but something called the “Richard Sherman Effect” as I like to call it took hold. He played so well that IDP players equated his on the field value to his fantasy value and cornerback is unique among fantasy in that the better you play, the less valuable you become. –TheFFGhost

Kiko Alonso, MLB MIA- Myself, and many Eagles fans like me will tell you that Kiko Alonso doesn’t want to play football anymore but that may or not be fair of us to say. But when he was healthy enough to play, there was little effort put into getting off blocks and getting after it. He fell for misdirection, and got put on his back all too often. From what I’ve seen through two weeks of the preseason, aside from his address, nothing much has changed. –Mo Brewington

Ryan Shazier, ILB PIT- I believe he could be a super solid IDP but the injuries are too frequent. He’s been overvalued and drafted ahead of better, more consistent IDPs. –Bill Edwards

Reshad Jones, SS MIA- All defensive backs are overvalued, but Jones especially so this year. There are still issues with Miami’s defense, which means opportunity could be there, but it is so hard to predict on a game-to-game basis what a defensive back will do in terms of production. Just because he had a similar Value-Over-Replacement to Watt last year doesn’t mean he will this year. –Joseph Redemann

Lawrence Timmons, ILB PIT– Let me be clear, I love what Lawrence Timmons brings to a real football team. He’s a very talented, multi-faceted playmaker who can do whatever the coaches ask of him. Unfortunately, we don’t get fantasy points for versatility. Timmons’ flexibility keeps him on the field for nearly 100% of the snaps but he’s all over the place and his stats suffer. He hasn’t yielded a positive return on investment in a few years now. – Eric Olinger

Who do you think is 2016’s Most Overvalued IDP Player?

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eric olinger
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