32 Teams, 32 Questions: AFC South
Training camp; a time when we get to see all 32 teams doing something at least relatively meaningful. It also means there are only a few weeks left until the rosters and depth charts are set for the start of the season. We are going to take a little trip around the league and look at all 32 teams to address one of the biggest questions about each team you need to be thinking about. In terms of dynasty leagues, if you aren’t thinking about these things now; you’re already behind.
The AFC South is probably the weakest division in football. The last time at least two teams made the playoffs from the division was the 2012-2013 season. Since the realignment in 2002, the South has represented two or more teams only six times, and only once have they had three teams enter the playoff round.
With the 2016 draft, it appears as though the division may be on an upswing. Jacksonville Jaguars had a tremendous draft shoring up their defense by getting Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, who could have gone in the top-five if owners were not so shaky about his knee. Houston Texans upgraded their offense with wide receivers Braxton Miller, and Will Fuller while bringing in Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller through free agency. Also, look for rookie Tyler Ervin to be explosive with the ball in his hands.
The Tennessee Titans are hoping to have a legit running back in Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, and also drafted wide receiver Tajae Sharpe out of Massuchesettes. The Colts are going to look the same as they did last season. They didn’t sign anyone of major importance during the free-agency period, and focused on their offensive line during the draft. Ryan Kelly was their first selection and could be a good one. Indianapolis has had trouble at the center position since Jeff Saturday moved on to Green Bay in 2012.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Can Blake Bortles finish as a top-ten fantasy quarterback?
Blake Bortles made significant progress from his rookie season, and he put up 480 fantasy points to show for it placing him in the top-five of quarterbacks of 2015. So, why would he regress or will he regress out of the top-10? My answer is yes, he will fall out of the top 10 this season.
The quarterbacks I have in front of Bortles, in no particular order are: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Tyrod Taylor, and Eli Manning. The rank puts him as the 12th quarterback on my list and just inside my fourth tier.
I will explain why I see a large drop for this young athlete in the Jaguars high powered system, including a countdown of how many estimated touchdowns and yards he will lose in 2016.
First, there have been some changes to their defense. Their defense has gotten much better, as they were able to get both Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. This duo will now team with second-year player Dante Fowler. The improved defense will translate to closer games and fewer garbage points which inflated Bortles’ point totals in 2015. 19 of his touchdown passes came in the fourth quarter and 25 of his total touchdowns occurred in games his team lost. I can see three fewer touchdowns in this area (35-3=32). Also, he won’t have to throw as much, which will affect his passing yards (4,428-250 yards=4,175).
Next, there appears to be more of running game with a new acquisition in Chris Ivory. He will now share time with T.J. Yeldon. With Yeldon, the Jags struggled to get the ball in the end zone, but this will now change with Ivory. It was a horrible scene last season, as the running backs only crossed the goal line twice, which was the amount Bortles did all by himself.
Since Ivory has a nose for the goal line, the offense won’t feel the need to pass down low, and in effect take points away from Bortles. Last season, Bortles threw for 35 touchdowns, 19 of those came within 10-yards or less, and nine came within five yards or less. He will take a big hit here in yards and touchdowns. I can see a loss of five touchdowns here (32-5=27). More running equals less passing, which means fewer yards in the air (4175-100= 4075).
Blake Bortles finished throwing for 88 percent of the team’s touchdowns, and when you consider the NFL average is around 70 percent, his touchdowns should decrease. Take two from here (27-2=25 touchdowns). Not many yards will decrease here (4175-50=4025).
Bortles was successful against the bad teams and did marginally well against the good ones. He obviously can get by with the weapons he has as both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns could be the best combo in football right now. When you throw Julius Thomas and T.J. Yeldon as pass receivers, Bortles won’t be short of weapons. I don’t think Bortles will lose much here, taking one touchdown. (25-1=24 touchdowns). Yards should remain status quo.
Even though he has a talented crew, he also has had trouble connecting with them. He finished with just 58.6 percent last season, which was nearly a half percentage lower than Colin Kaepernick, and 31st in the NFL. He also threw 18 interceptions and lost five fumbles. He won’t throw 600 times again this season, so his turnover will decrease but so will his yards (4,025-150=3,875).
In the end, I see Bortles throwing for 3,875-yards and 24 touchdowns, he will most likely run for a score as well which puts him around Jameis Winston numbers of 2015. Winston finished 13th in PPR scoring, but when you toss in Bortles’ rushing he should finish anywhere between 11 and 12 in quarterback rankings.
Houston Texans
Will DeAndre Hopkins finish in the top-five of fantasy wide receivers?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZOJGR-Lp6I
Last season, DeAndre Hopkins found himself being a one-man wrecking crew on his way to 111 catches on 192 targets for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns. He was the target on 31 percent of Houston’s throws, and he contributed 37 percent of the total passing yards and 38 percent of the total passing scores. He simply was the entire offense, especially when Arian Foster was out of the lineup, but there is a regression coming, and it could push him out of the top five of receivers.
Let’s start with the new acquisitions to the team. The Texans first brought in quarterback Brock Osweiler, or should I say bought Brock Osweiler with a four-year, $72 million contract that will pay him $37 million in the first two years and is fully guaranteed. Next stop was Miami, as they lured Lamar Miller in with a signed four-year, $26 million contract. Then they dipped into the draft and plucked wide receivers Will Fuller out of Notre Dame and Braxton Miller from Ohio State. They also drafted speedster Tyler Ervin in the fourth round from San Jose State. Hopkins has now gone from being alone to being surrounded by top-flight athletes and the offense won’t need to rest on his shoulders as much.
Not only will they not need to pass as often and have multiple options to go with, but the running game should also improve. The Texans finished last season 28th in yards averaged per carry (3.7 ypc). They tied with the Patriots and the Redskins; only the Colts (3.6 ypc) and the Chargers (3.5 ypc) performed worse. Perhaps it had something to do with Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, and Jonathan Grimes being the ball carriers when Foster was out. Even when he was playing, he just averaged 2.5 yards per carry. Lamar Miller, a workhorse with good hands, has now lifted that load. Miller caught 47 passes in 2015, which ended up being just 38 less than the entire running back squad for the Texans.
At wide receiver last season the Texans showcased Nate Washington, Jaelen Strong, Keith Mumphrey and Cecil Shorts. This unit combined for 117 receptions and nine touchdowns. The combination of Will Fuller and Braxton Miller should boost this, and with Shorts, Strong, and Mumphrey returning, it should just get better and more relaxing for Hopkins. He won’t have to worry about carrying the entire load, they now have pieces to ease him into a more regular number one role, and with Osweiler back there, they a more consistent quarterback.
There is no doubt in my mind that Hopkins will regress and it because of this regression he will fall out of the top five of receivers. It isn’t that he is losing his talent, it’s the team gaining more skilled players, and filling out the missing pieces to make this offense whole again. This influx of talent will lead to Hopkins losing value and dropping out of the top-five and probably finishing around seven or eight.
Tennessee Titans
Is Derrick Henry the savior at the running back position for the Titans?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMWhzfYPqNE
The Tennessee Titans went into the second round and drafted Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry (6-foot-2 and 247 pounds), but is he the answer they have needed since Eddie George did so many great things for the organization? After all, he looks like George and runs like him too.
Eddie George (6-foot-3, and 230 pounds) stated about what he sees in Henry; “I think he has the physical stature to be as great as he wants to be. It’s just a question of: Can he be more than just a bruiser? If he can prove he can pick up the blitzes and so forth, and he can catch the ball out of the backfield and be an asset in the passing game, he can really be special.”
“I am not concerned about his running style at all. I think he can be a dominant back in this league,” NFL.com analyst Bucky Brooks said about Henry when the Titans selected him. “This is an Eddie George clone, a guy that excels at running between the tackles and off tackle in a zone-based system. I love how he comes downhill. He is a guy that grinds it out. If I’m the Tennessee Titans, now I can split the load between DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.
The biggest issue will be Murray and how he will affect Henry. Both are downhill runners that love to wear down the defense by the end of the third quarter. Murray has better hands than Henry, but Henry is capable. The other piece to this is that Murray signed a four year, $25 million contract. Which means unless he is released or traded, Murray will make a dent in Henry’s progress. But it could also keep Henry from taking a pounding while learning from his counter-part and developing his skills in pass catching and blocking.
Lastly, the Titans’ offensive line is a hindrance ranking 20th in run blocking in 2015, per Football Outsiders, but that’s much better than their ranking 32nd in pass protection. With these factors, it’s a little early to say if Henry is a savior of this franchise or not, but in a few years we’ll be able to see his true impact to the team.
Indianapolis Colts
How about Andrew Luck and the Colts running game?
The best way to look at Andrew Luck and the running game is through poop-stained glasses. Luck was a mess last season, and the Colts running backs didn’t get much better. Frank Gore is still their main back of choice and he leads a ragtag group of veterans. It appears Robert Turbin will play a supportive role and Jordan Todman will be the third choice. Undrafted Free-Agent (UDFA) Josh Ferguson is a back-up of sorts.
Indianapolis finished in the bottom of the league in most main categories in rushing. Rushing attempts (21st), yards (29th), and touchdowns (28th). They finished dead last in average yards per game with just 3.6 yards per carry. Obviously, it didn’t help when the backfield is loaded with players such as Ahmad Bradshaw, Josh Robinson, Dan Herron, and Zurlon Tipton (rest in peace). Gore led the group in yards per attempt with a 3.7 average: it was that bad.
It didn’t help the running game that Andrew Luck was either hurt or played like Colin Kaepernick. Luck being out of the lineup allowed defenses to creep into the box, especially with old veteran and weak armed Matt Hasselbeck as quarterback.
The offensive line was also below average. According to Pro Football Focus the Colts finished as the 19th ranked run blocking unit, and the 12th best pass blocking group. Although Jack Mewhort was a pleasant surprise, Todd Herremans was just really bad and given his release. Also guard Khaled Holmes and Lance Louis won’t be with the Colts this season. Indianapolis had trouble at the guard and center spots. Anthony Castanzo played reasonably well, but can do better.
The offensive line will look better heading into 2016 as they drafted for the future and increased depth. They drafted center Ryan Kelly with their first pick in the first round, tackle Le’Raven Clark in the third, tackle Joe Haeg in the fifth, and center Austin Blythe in the seventh. Now with the formation of Castanzo, Joe Reitz, Mewhort, Denzelle Good, Joe Thornton, and Kelly as the main players for the offensive line, it should get much steadier.
Not only will the new offensive line be upgraded for run blocking, but it will be more protective for Luck. The former first-round draft choice was knocked out of the season before it really got started for him. Not saying he wasn’t awful while he was in there, but the line didn’t give him enough protection to feel comfortable in the pocket. In 2015, Luck was the fourth highest under pressure quarterback in the NFL (33.5 percent). Comparatively, in his first three seasons, he was only under pressure 26.7 percent of the time. He also had a 3.7 per game sack rate, which was his highest ever rate, beating out the 2.5 in his rookie season.
He appeared to get a tad gun-shy when dropping back to pass, and would release the ball to avoid getting sacked. In return, the ball found the defense. In just seven games, he threw 12 interceptions, and collected just 15 touchdowns. This was his second worst ratio in his NFL career, and his yards per attempt (6.4) was the lowest as a pro. I expect an increase in production for 2016.
At this time I don’t trust his numbers to hover around his 2014 season. I believe that was a career season for him, but I also don’t think he will regress back to his rookie year where he only had 23 touchdowns to go with 18 picks. With the improved offensive line, I can picture a ceiling of 34 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. He won’t throw as much, and the ground game is going to have to take time off the clock. Not to say they are going to become a run first team, but I do think running the ball more than they have will only be beneficial for Luck, the defense, and the offensive line.
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