OverCooked?

Eric Hardter

The prevailing narrative is that Saints receiver Brandin Cooks achieved a sophomore breakout in 2015.  If one were to look at the raw numbers, it’s hard to argue – Cooks finished the year as the overall PPR WR14, while checking in as the WR19 on a per-game basis amongst players who played at least half the season.  Either way, we’re talking about Top-20 numbers, something that only four other second year receivers were able to accomplish.

Not surprisingly, Cooks’ August ADP has risen to the rank of the 17th player overall, and the WR13, just a hair behind Bears’ stud pass catcher Alshon Jeffery.  His metaphorical value balloon is soaring in the minds of most, but I’m here to take a needle to it.  I’m not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but the advanced numbers just don’t support the assertion of Cooks’ ascension.  Because after all…

Brandin Cooks was an inefficient NFL and fantasy receiver who couldn’t be relied upon on a weekly basis.

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With that introduction in the rearview, it’s once again time to mention that this article is meant to function as a companion piece to my 2016 Receiver Wrap-Up.  It’s the second such piece, with the first focusing on stalwart veteran Brandon Marshall.  And much like with my Marshall article, you should absolutely read the Wrap-Up first!  I’ll be referencing many of the metrics used there in this space, with only a fraction of the explanation behind them.  Without perusing the Wrap-Up, these daughter pieces won’t make nearly as much sense.

Getting back to Cooks…

Below is a summary table of his 2015 season, including fantasy finishes and fantasy efficiency (as determined by my AIR metric).  Each was assigned a value between 1-5 depending on the weekly output (weekly WR1 = 5, and so on; weekly Superstar AIR = 5, and so on), and those values were then multiplied together.  This ultimately yielded both aggregate and average weekly combinatory output, which is shown in the bottom two rows.

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Cooks’ aggregate score of 191 was good enough to check in at 13th overall, which was roughly in line with his PPR finish.  His average weekly score of 11.9 tumbled a slight bit to 17th overall, but this was once again in line with his weekly PPR scoring rank.  At the moment, the problem has yet to be identified.

With that said, there’s a bit of a “Christmas Tree” motif as it relates to Cooks’ weekly efficiency, with a roughly equal smattering of green and red.  We’d prefer to see much more green here, but Cooks’ 18.8% of contests with Superstar-level efficiency was roughly 5% below the average for 2015’s PPR Top-50 receivers, checking in at t-27th.  He was Above Average or better 50% of the time, which was roughly 6% better than the average, and if we move down one more level, he was About Average or better 68.8% of the time, which was roughly 5% better than average.  Given his spot in the ADP hierarchy, I think it’s reasonable to expect a bit more.

Getting back to the table above, we next need to consider Cooks’ weekly PPR finishes.  In the 2016 Receiver Wrap-Up, I spoke to my belief that there are three types of fantasy receivers:

  • Consistent fantasy contributors
  • Boom/bust guys
  • Aggregators

We clearly strive to own players in the first category, and merely tolerate players in the second and third groupings.  In this rundown, I’m here to posit that in 2015, Cooks was much more of a category 2/3 guy.

Continuing, the fantasy season isn’t played as an aggregation, it’s played as a series of one-game matchups.  Year-end points are important, but it’s what happens on any given Sunday that ultimately matters for the fantasy bottom line.  Cooks was able to hit the high end of the spectrum six times out of 16 games, finishing as a weekly PPR WR1 37.5% of the time – this was good enough for a finish of t-8th out of the PPR Top-50 guys.  That’s the boom.  However, he was a WR5 or worse in just one fewer game, checking in at 31.3% – this was below the average by approximately 3%.  That’s the bust.  The rest was simple aggregation.

With only one weekly WR2 finish, Cooks hit the Top-50 average for WR2 or better finishes on the nose at 43.7%.  Adding in his two weekly WR3 finishes, Cooks was actually below the Top-50 average for WR3 or better finishes by 4%, with a total of 56.3%.  In summation, this was a guy who busted almost as often as he boomed, and was merely aggregated the rest of the way, with one WR2 finish, and two WR3/4 finishes apiece.  If he wasn’t winning you weeks, there’s a good chance he was losing them for you.  Even after the bye, when he supposedly “came alive” according to many analysts, he had as many WR1 finishes as he did WR5.

Much of this was due to Cooks’ dependence on scoring touchdowns.  In 2015, 21.4% of his PPR points stemmed from crossing the goal line, which was 4.5% better than average, and 18th amongst the Top-50 receivers.  However, his seasonal AIR value of 1.11 was only good for 24th out of 50, meaning that even given his predilection towards scoring the ball, he still had only a middling fantasy efficiency.

This can be attributed to the fact that, apart from scoring touchdowns, Cooks was abysmal in a real life setting.  His First Down Ratio (FDR) of 0.94 was 47th out of 50, due to the fact that he was only able to corral 45 of the team’s 247 passing first downs (18.2%) despite receiving 129 out of the team’s 667 targets (19.3%).  In fact, Cooks was one of only six players (amongst the PPR Top-50 receivers) with a sub-1.00 FDR (i.e. expected production), and he actually only had one more first down than teammate Willie Snead despite an additional 27 targets (and a lower yards-per-reception average).  When this FDR value was divided by his AIR score of 1.11 to formulate the New Deal, the resultant value of 0.85 was the third worst tabulated.  His SumR (AIR + FDR) value of 2.05 was only marginally better, checking in at 38th overall.  When I consider the fantasy receivers I like, I want guys who are as good if not better in real life than they are in fantasy, not vice versa, and Cooks doesn’t check that box.

I would have more confidence in Cooks’ continued growth if I saw a higher floor, but his component percentages of PPR scoring aligned with the above, showing that he was below average with regards to collecting receptions and yards:

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This point could have been mitigated but is instead further bolstered by Cooks’ Relative Ratios (think AIR or FDR, but with the numerator containing either player/team receptions, yards and touchdowns), which were once again below average within the confines of the New Orleans offense (save for scoring plays):

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Finally, Cooks’ Aggregate Receiving Computation (ARC) scores showed more of the same.  To understand the theory and calculations behind ARC, please read the Wrap-Up, but the long and short of this new predictive quantity is that the ARC formula roughly equates to a percent error calculation, where the player’s output relative to league output (percentages of component scores for receptions, yards and touchdowns) functions as the theoretical value, and his output relative to his own team (the relative ratios for receptions, yards and touchdowns) functions as the experimental value.  If a player’s component percentage was lower than league average but his relative ratio was higher, it stands to reason he’s much better than the percentages suggest.  By using league-wide trends as the standard, the ARC scores show when can happen if a team’s offense changes, and whether we should be concerned if the offense gets worse.  Cooks’ ARC scores are shown below (with -R, -Y and -T representing receptions, yards and touchdowns, respectively):

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Amongst the PPR Top-50 receivers of 2015, these represented values that all hovered around average.

So ultimately we have a player who was virtually useless if he wasn’t booming as a WR1, and who was inefficient in both fantasy and real life.  He has a price that bakes in absolutely none of the risk that his floor is lower than most, and doesn’t account for the fact that Snead will be getting better, and both Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener will be brought in to, at the very minimum, challenge in the red zone, potentially crippling Cooks’ fantasy ceiling.  Cooks is a good young player for sure, but I don’t buy the breakout and I’m certainly not buying at the Overcooked price.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter