Preach Against the Reach – Izzy’s DLF Live Draft Recap
It’s All About the Benjamin’s, Baby – Preach Against the Reach
This was the weekend I had circled on my calendar for a few reasons: meeting the best of the Midwest at DLF, a LIVE (!!) Dynasty draft, and last but certainly not least, a weekend without the wife and toddler. All three I looked forward to, and all three delivered beyond my expectations. I’d like to give you an idea of what my 24 hours before the draft was like. This will put in perspective the plight I was in.
On Friday morning I set off on my journey from Minneapolis to Milwaukee where I planned to carpool with Nick Whalen and George Kritikos. George bailed on the guys’ weekend and decided to drive down for the draft and back all on Saturday. With Nick and I left alone, I became concerned about my safety. I couldn’t help but think this was a setup of sorts. Being from Minnesota, we all know most serial killers call Wisconsin home. As I drove deeper and deeper into the small town of Menomonee Falls, I couldn’t help but think about Ed Gein, David Spanbauer, Walter Ellis and Jeffrey Dahmer. I pull into the driveway; Nick waves a friendly hello and invites me in. After a bro hug with Nick, I quickly do a comfort scan, check my back a couple of times and off to the kitchen I go. Nick, being very hospitable, has two chicken sausages all ready to go for my arrival. When he turns his back, I smell them to detect a poison, but all checks out. Now that lunch is complete, we toss our stuff into Nick’s Maserati (which he bought with his first DLF paycheck), and our trip down to Chicago is officially kicked off.
After a bunch of great conversations, we arrived in Chicago and setoff to John Moeser’s (one of my fellow Dynastytradecalculator.com Co-Owners) place to drop off our bags. That night we grab Lou Malnati’s with a handful of the drafters for a pre-draft meet and greet. Everyone was a gem, besides the waitress. I tried to get as much intel on my competition as possible, but the well was drier than the Serengeti. We headed back to John’s condo to get some rest, but unfortunately that didn’t happen. We stayed up until 3:00am as Nick and I argued about whether Jay Cutler was average or not. I made a case that he’s a bottom third quarterback; while Nick insisted he was top half. We got nowhere, but we missed out on a lot a sleep in the process. So let’s just say we both lost.
Saturday morning and its go time! Since it’s a technology free draft, all I brought was a list of player names. I needed it to cross off player names as I attempted to stay on track. We did a lottery ball style for draft order and since it was my idea, it was obviously rigged and I got the first overall pick. Everything is all ready to go, and I’m on the clock…
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Pre-Draft Strategy and Early Round Breakdown
Now that you understand the conditions I was in, I’ll take you through my strategy/mindset. So my snake draft strategy is always balance and/or value. I refuse to reach because trading is typically allowed. That said, for the sake of time, no trading was allowed in this draft. This makes my refusal to reach very challenging, but I set out to attempt it anyway. Thankfully, I didn’t have to reach with my first pick and I selected the consensus 1.01 and snagged Odell Beckham Jr. If the draft would have ended right there, I would easily have the best team. Unfortunately, we continued to draft.
Since that was the obvious pick, I had a long wait ahead of me. I was also interviewing each of the owners and giving draft updates via Periscope so even though I brought a list of names to cross off, I fell too far behind to keep that updated. Typically, when you draft on the turns, you have a huge wait ahead of you. With this group, the picks were coming in as if they were orders on the New York Stock Exchange during a financial crisis. With the 24th overall pick, I was hoping for one of the top four quarterbacks (Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson). If I was very fortunate, I’d be able to get two and seal up my Superflex position. Pick 21 is on the clock and I’m getting excited. Boom! In a blink of an eye, Wilson and Rodgers get yelled out within ten seconds of each other, and it’s back to the drawing board. I had a debate of taking two out of these four; Randall Cobb, TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief and David Johnson. Ultimately, I took a safer play in Cobb and went for the home run in Moncrief. I preach avoid the reach, and based on ADP, Moncrief actually isn’t a reach. That said, there were much safer players on the board, especially his teammate, Hilton.
With three wide receivers selected, I decide my next few picks are going to be value, regardless of position. Back on the clock, I start to get nervous. The worst part of picking back-to-back is the risk you take in ignoring a position of need and potentially dealing with bottom of the barrel talents by waiting. Right before me, Mo Brewington selected Derek Carr as the ninth quarterback off the board. 47 picks in and we’re already at QB10. With my back-to-back picks, I stick with my value based drafting and am absolutely floored that Kelvin Benjamin is still on the board. At WR28, that’s an absolute steal and I don’t even really like Benjamin. I followed him up with Golden Tate and the only player I really considered was Doug Martin.
Through five rounds, I have five wide receivers. Despite ignoring the other positions, I get to start all five of them in this lineup format and still have room to start two quarterbacks. Now the praying begins for me. I’m praying that the quarterbacks slow down so I can get one and that Travis Kelce falls to me in this tight end premium format. Alas, my prayers were answered and Kelce was on the board and only five quarterbacks were taken in the 24 picks leading up to mine. Being a Matthew Stafford supporter and having him available as QB15 made my decision easy. In fact, outside of my Beckham Jr. pick, these two were my easiest decisions of the draft.
Now that I have my tight end position covered and one of my quarterbacks locked in, time to eye another quarterback with the last pick in the eighth round before I shift my strategy. I’ll get into that in my next section. First, I need to restart praying as three of the next four picks were quarterbacks. Thankfully it slowed down, but between Stafford and my selection, a total of seven quarterbacks were selected. Despite that fact, I was delighted to see Joe Flacco still on the board. With Trestman last year, he was on pace to set career highs in pass attempts and yards before getting injured for the second half of the season.
Through eight rounds, here’s how my roster is checked out:
QB: Stafford, Flacco
RB:
WR: Beckham Jr, Cobb, Moncrief, K. Benjamin, Tate
TE: Kelce
Middle Round Strategy and Breakdown
My strategy in the middle rounds was simple. I was going to take as much upside as possible. This is where I take my youth and largest potential value gain for trade bait as the season progresses. I started out with an absolute bang by selecting Duke Johnson as the RB22 off the board. I’m not a huge fan of Duke, but I love his value at this spot. He’s going as RB17 in ADP and the latest he’s been drafted in any DLF ADP whether it’s standard or 2QB was 79th overall. I got him as the 97th player off the board.
With nine selections made, this is when I expect the well to dry a bit. I was eyeing a few players with my next back-to-back picks, but I would have been surprised had they made it around to me. Sure enough, Derrick Henry, DeMarco Murray, Latavius Murray and Marvin Jones were gone. Also, four quarterbacks were selected in the tenth round. I decided to snag Carson Wentz as the QB28 and Martavis Bryant as WR53. Since my strategy was potential value gain, these were by far the two best available. To give you an idea of what I mean, the next players off the board were: Jeremy Langford, Ryan Mathews, Eric Ebron, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Paxton Lynch and Larry Fitzgerald. With Wentz, I get a high-upside quarterback in a Superflex format. With Bryant, I look at him like a draft pick. His value will continue to increase as we get closer to 2017. That’s assuming he doesn’t go Cheech and Chong on me again.
In the 12/13 turn, I continued with the potential value gain approach and selected Travis Benjamin as the WR60 off the board along with Wendell Smallwood as the RB43 off the board. I’m not a fan of Smallwood as a talent at all, but I am a fan of his situation. I’m waiting for a Mathews injury and then he is on his way out of town. With Benjamin, I love his upside. He’s proven to be a capable receiver with poor quarterbacking, and now he gets a chucker in Philip Rivers. Benjamin is also my most undervalued dynasty asset right now. I also love the fact that I monopolized the Benjamins. Like they say about fantasy sports, “it’s all about the Benjamins, baby.”
With my 14/15 turn picks, I selected another rookie running back in Josh Ferguson, and Clive Walford as my backup tight end. As most know, I’ve been a Ferguson fan boy for about a year now, and Walford fits the potential value gain mold.
Through 15 picks, here’s how I look.
QB: Stafford, Flacco, Wentz
RB: D. Johnson, Smallwood, Ferguson
WR: Beckham Jr, Cobb, Moncrief, K. Benjamin, Tate, M. Bryant, T. Benjamin
TE: Kelce, Walford
Late Round Strategy and Breakdown
Having drafted my core and potential value gain players, my plan was to take as many quarterbacks and running backs in solid offenses that are behind running backs with injury history as possible.
I fired away on two quarterbacks on the 16/17 turn with Sam Bradford and Colin Kaepernick. In a Superflex format, these are great return on investment picks.
My 18/19 turn I grabbed Cameron Artis-Payne and Shaun Draughn. I feel both have a great shot at starting at some point this year. Durability is a concern for the two backs ahead of them. Draughn, specifically, I think is a better fit than Hyde for Chip Kelly’s offense.
My last three picks were Khiry Robinson, Josh McCown and Tim Hightower. I took another quarterback and snagged two veteran running backs I like if Matt Forte and Mark Ingram were to get hurt.
My final roster looks like this:
QB: Stafford, Flacco, Wentz, Bradford, Kaepernick, McCown
RB: D. Johnson, Smallwood, Ferguson, Artis-Payne, Draughn, K. Robinson, Hightower
WR: Beckham Jr, Cobb, Moncrief, K. Benjamin, Tate, M. Bryant, T. Benjamin
TE: Kelce, Walford
Post-Draft Conclusion
Leaving the draft it’s obvious that I’m missing an RB1. That said, every year the running back position turns over during the season and I hope to land one or two starters due to injury. With the 2017 draft class looming and the penchant for injury at the position, I didn’t want one of my early investments in the running back position to blow up in my face. I have a solid nucleolus and drafted proven players, and I did so while managing to stay very young in the process. I have one starter over the age of 28 (Flacco) and seven out of 10 that are 26 or younger. I’m one of the few teams that has a core of proven, yet young assets. My future is bright, and I’m one running back injury away from being a legitimate contender in 2016.
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- Rookie Profile: Josh Reynolds, WR Texas A&M - April 26, 2017
- Running Back Confidence Zones: Part Four - March 8, 2017
- Running Back Confidence Zones: Part Three - March 8, 2017
