DLF Summer Rookie Mock: Round One
The long, painful wait is over and the NFL season is finally upon us. Training camps are underway, the early preseason games are being played, and the regular season is just around the corner. In just a few weeks now, we will be worrying about who to start and who to sit. In the meantime, some of you still need to draft your rookies. If you already drafted, now is the time to make your final evaluations and take advantage of what might be your last chance to nab a late round rookie before they break out or sell an early round one before they bust. In order to help you we are back with one final rookie mock.
For this mock, we did three rounds with twelve teams. We assumed PPR scoring and traditional lineups (so not a 2QB or superflex league). All of the drafters were asked to give a brief intro to their selection, and I’ll be providing some additional thoughts on each one as well. These are just our personal opinions on the rookies, so it is likely there could be some disagreement which is perfectly okay. The goal is to provide you with as many different perspectives as possible with the start of the season just around the corner. Let’s take a look at the picks.
**Special Note: This mock was conducted prior to preseason games. Anything which occurred, good or bad, during those games did not factor into this mock.**
1 – Ezekiel Elliot, RB DAL
Brian’s thoughts: I will take the player who goes fourth overall in the class to a team that has arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Elliott seems like a polished running back who is ready to contribute immediately in fantasy football. The Dallas offensive line made Darren McFadden a 1,000 yard rusher again. Imagine what they can do with a more polished pass catcher. Elliott is already dealing with a hamstring injury, but hopefully that does not become a consistent issue for the talented running back out of Ohio State.
My thoughts: Elliot has been the easy choice as the first overall selection for months now. Even if you don’t need a running back or desperately need a receiver, I think you take him and trade him or else just trade the pick. He’s the most talented player in this year’s draft and just might have landed in the best situation as well. It is tough to beat that combo. If you’re fortunate enough to have landed the 1.01 then take him without second guessing the pick.
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2 – LaQuon Treadwell, WR MIN
Nathan’s thoughts: Treadwell has been my locked in 1.02 since Elliott solidified himself at 1.01. Treadwell has the highest ceiling of any of the wide receivers in consideration at this pick. The worries about Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense have been overblown, and when the offense becomes more pass heavy (when Adrian Peterson leaves/retires), this will actually look like a great landing spot and Treadwell will become the only wide receiver in this class with a top 15 startup ADP.
My thoughts: I mostly agree with Nathan on this one. Once Elliot is gone, Treadwell is the easy choice for me. I don’t think he’ll be the top rookie receiver in 2016 production (I think that will be Sterling Shepard) nor do I feel he has the highest upside (Josh Doctson here), but I think he is the most complete receiver in this group. He should definitely be a top 15 receiver for years to come. I think his play style fits perfectly with what Bridgewater is capable of doing. Sign me up!
3 – Corey Coleman, WR CLE
Austan’s thoughts: Coleman is my top wideout in this class. I won’t argue much if you have any of the other three top receivers ahead of him — they’re all pretty good — but I think Coleman is the best of the bunch. The dude scored 20 touchdowns in 12 games last year. Baylor’s insane offense deserves some of the credit for that, but Treadwell had just 21 touchdowns in 35 career games. Coleman is a tad undersized (5-foot-11, 194 pounds) to be a prototypical top wideout, but his athletic ability is through the roof. Josh Gordon coming back probably takes away some targets, but it always gives Cleveland another, you know, NFL-caliber receiver for defenses to worry about.
My thoughts: All through the process, I’ve been quite a bit lower on Coleman than most other people. He’s fluctuated between the fourth and fifth receiver in this draft class, depending on the month. Don’t get me wrong, he’s definitely talented. He’s also had one of the best summers of the draft class. So what is my problem? I see an awful lot risks with Coleman. The offensive system at Baylor, while spectacular, is quite different from most NFL offenses. He’s a great playmaker, but I do have some questions about how good he is as a true receiver, which has him slightly lower for me than most others.
4 – Sterling Shepard, WR NYG
Dan’s thoughts: This should come as no surprise to anyone. I’ve been on the Shepard train for a while. He’s the most NFL ready receiver in the draft, with his tremendous route running and great hands. Sure, he’s a little undersized but he can win at the point of the catch and in traffic. Shepard is going to thrive while his counterpart, OBJ, is demanding double coverage. All the reports coming out of Giants camp have been overwhelmingly positive, and rightly so. He may get “stuck” with the slot role, but he’ll be able to produce from there or on the outside if they choose to line him up there. If you’re drafting in the 4-6 range in your rookie drafts, take the best “actual” WR in the draft: Sterling Shepard.
My thoughts: Even though Shepard wouldn’t have been my selection at this pick, I like him. Everything Dan said is definitely true. He’s very NFL ready, very polished and is in a great situation. The reason I would have gone elsewhere with this selection is the upside I feel Shepard possesses. I think he’ll be the best rookie receiver in 2016; however, I think his room for growth after 2016 is much more limited than the others. He’s such a good route runner already that I’m not sure he can improve in that area. I think his ceiling is as a WR2 in fantasy leagues while some of the others have WR1 potential.
5 – Josh Doctson, WR WAS
Bruce’s thoughts: I consider Doctson the last premium wide receiver prospect left on the board, which means there’s a major drop off in talent past this point in the draft. He checks all the boxes from his size, speed and athleticism to his college production. His recent Achilles injury is a concern but I’m still not dropping him down my board because he’s a talented prospect in a great situation. The injury may curtail his development, causing him not to see as much playing time during the beginning of the season.
I don’t go into rookie drafts expecting much production out of my players during the initial rookie season because it usually takes a few years for them to fully transition to the NFL level. A big mistake a lot of dynasty owners make is expecting too much from their rookies during the first few years of their career, causing the owner to irrationally trade the player at a discounted price. Be patient with Doctson, there will be a return on your investment, like many rookies, it’s going to take time for him to develop.
My thoughts: Doctson is the gambler’s choice in the early first round. He probably has the highest ceiling of their year’s top receivers, but there are also a fair number of concerns. He is going to need some time to transition to the NFL, and his injury is robbing him of that precious time. I never expected him to do much this year since he would likely be only a part time player, but now my expectations for 2016 are even lower. If the injury issue lingers into the season, I might need to temper my expectations for 2017 as well. Most rookies, especially the ones who are slightly raw like Doctson, need time in games to develop. He needs to get healthy soon if we are going to see him produce in 2017. He’s likely to slide in drafts happening in August, but he has too much potential in my opinion. Snatch him up if you’re in the middle first.
6 – Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL
Austan’s thoughts: I typically go receiver heavy in rookie drafts. Michael Thomas is going to be the common pick here, but I’m not a huge fan of him. Justin Forsett is a good player who is a nice, cheap pickup this off-season, and I think he’ll lead the Ravens backfield in 2016. It could be Dixon’s show after this year. I love his running style, feet and all-around ability. Javorius Allen showed some things as a receiver last year, but he was pretty poor (3.8 YPC) running the football. If this was a real draft, I’d try to move back because I could probably get Dixon a couple spots later, but I do think he’s the best option available after the big five are off the board.
My thoughts: Unlike Austan, I really like Thomas, so I would have gone that route at this pick. If you don’t like Thomas, there really isn’t a good choice at this pick in my opinion because there is a major drop in talent. With that said, I’m not a huge fan of Dixon. He just doesn’t get me very excited. He didn’t seem to get a ton of NFL teams very excited either since he wasn’t drafted until very late in the fourth round. He’s good at a lot of things but doesn’t really have that wow factor. Mix that in with all of the early reports coming out of Baltimore about other running backs, and I’m staying away from him at this point in the draft. Early second, maybe, but not middle first.
7 – Michael Thomas, WR NO
My thoughts: Thomas is one of the players I seem to like more than everyone else so it is fitting he fell to me at the seventh pick. In fact, I have Thomas as my third ranked receiver in this draft class behind Treadwell and Doctson. He has the size and skill set to be a feature receiver in the NFL. He also landed in one of the better situations. The Saints are in need of a big bodied receiver to help out on the outside. They have Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead, but neither of them are the same type of receiver as Thomas. Thomas definitely fills a needed role for the Saints, and I have full faith in Drew Brees to help coach him up and bring his development along. Early reports have been very promising.
The one concern I do have about Thomas is long term value. Brees has been one of if not the best fantasy quarterback over the last five to seven years. Unfortunately he won’t be doing this five years from now. Sometime in the next few years his production is going to fall off, most likely suddenly, like Peyton Manning and many other great quarterbacks before him. Where will that leave someone like Thomas? He’ll be on the receiving end of passes from someone like Luke McCown? A lot can happen in a few years, so I’m not going to worry about that too much now.
8 – Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Brian’s thoughts: At this point in the draft, you can get talent or situation, but not both. I opted for talent. Henry is a highly productive, highly athletic prospect who would have been best suited as the lead running back on a winning football team. Instead he fell into a Tennessee timeshare. The only good news is the buzz all off-season that the Titans like Henry’s ability in the passing game. But things change quickly in the NFL. I’m happy to take Henry at 1.08 and hope his circumstances improve quickly.
My thoughts: I don’t really know what to make of Henry. His size is so far above and beyond what we normally see at the position that all normal evaluations fall apart for him. My gut tells me he is going to be a committee back for his career in the NFL. I also have the feeling he is going to be rather inconsistent. He’ll have a great week one week and then kill your lineup the following week. When he gets that head of steam, he is going to be very tough to bring down. However, I question what he’ll be able to do when the massive holes aren’t there for him. It will be interesting to watch him develop over the next few years.
9 – Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
Ryan’s thoughts: While Tyler Boyd was not a player who was high on my early post-draft rookie rankings, the opportunity he has as part of the Bengals offense is clear. With the departure of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu and the injuries to the team’s top two tight ends, Boyd could make an early impact playing alongside AJ Green. He’s still hanging around most rookie drafts until the later portion of the first round and could prove to be a steal in that range.
My thoughts: Boyd has a great situation, but I’m not in love with the talent. After the top five receivers in this draft, the five who are already off the board, there is a major drop off in my opinion. Of the next tier, which includes players like Leonte Carroo and Will Fuller, Boyd is at the bottom of that list for me. I question if he has the talent to take advantage of the opportunity he has. The Bengals are going to need someone to step up opposite Green, especially with the injury issues, but I’m not sure Boyd can handle the role and take full advantage of it.
10 – Leonte Carroo, WR MIA
Trevor’s thoughts: I was happy to see Carroo fall to me in this mock as one or both of Will Fuller or C.J. Prosise typically gets drafted ahead of him. In rookie drafts, I see this as an error as I would take Carroo as my 9th rated rookie right after Boyd and before Dixon. I’m on board with everything about Carroo. He is where the metrics and film crowds agree, his team traded big to grab him where they did, and now he’s seeing increased reps while Devante Parker is injured. Throw in that I’m not a believer in Kenny Stills and that I think there’s a decent chance Jarvis Landry either moves on from Miami or moves to the slot after 2016, and I’m all in on Carroo (at this price.)
My thoughts: The late first round is not a place I like drafting this year. After the top six or seven players I feel everyone else is a good value in the second, but I struggle with them as first round picks. Carroo is no different. He definitely has some talent, but his game has a lot of holes to it as well. The situation is also questionable with Landry and Parker pretty much locked in as the top two targets. So third is the best Carroo can do, assuming he can pass all of the other receivers, running backs, and tight ends on the pecking order. How much is Ryan Tannehill’s third target worth? I feel like he is going to need Parker or Landry to move on before he can get a real chance to shine.
11 – Devontae Booker, RB DEN
Mike’s thoughts: Devontae Booker is the future of the Denver Broncos offense. He has good hands and is a solid runner. He is a perfect match for Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme and with Mark Sanchez or Trevor Siemen at the helm; the Broncos are going to want to run. Rob Rang noted that the offense prioritizes “patience, vision, and burst from its backs. Elusiveness and straight-line speed can be beneficial but are not as important.” Booker exemplifies Rang’s statement and is big as a boulder who can run over the defense in a combination of a pass catcher, solid route runner, and pass blocker. The biggest reason that Booker fell to the fourth round was his knee injury, but listen to running backs coach Eric Studesville – “Right now,” Studesville said. “I’ll put him in the game right now.”
My thoughts: When it comes to the Denver running backs, you’re either Team CJ Anderson or you’re Team Booker. I’m a team Anderson guy, which means I’m not nearly as high on Booker as a lot of other people are. I think Booker is a great backup running back for a team, but he’s a subpar starter. He’ll be more valuable to the Broncos, acting as a complement to Anderson, than he will be to your fantasy squad. I think he’ll easily pass Ronnie Hillman for the backup role, but he’ll stay behind Anderson unless there is an injury.
12 – CJ Prosise, RB SEA
Eric’s thoughts: If I had a mulligan I would’ve taken a different Notre Dame player here in Will Fuller. While I am in no way disappointed in having Prosise on my team, the better value may have been Fuller slipping. Prosise is currently fighting some nagging injuries during training camp and hasn’t been on the field to stake his claim for the starting gig, but I still believe Prosise offers a skill set no other back on the roster possesses. He’s electric with the ball in his hands and catches the ball so effortlessly. I think his upside is the highest of the team’s tailbacks.
My thoughts: I agree with Eric that Fuller would have been the better choice. Prosise is in an extremely crowded situation in Seattle. The rest of the rushers on the roster are also young and talented with means the most importable ability just might be availability. Unfortunately for Prosise, he hasn’t been available this summer/fall and is quickly falling behind. That doesn’t mean he’s doomed forever, just that his chances of making a real impact in 2016 are quickly fading with every day he spends on the trainer’s table.
That’s it for the first round. The second and third rounds will be coming up in just a few days. What about this first round surprises you?
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021