Swimming with Sharks: Finley’s DLF Live Draft Recap

Ryan Finley Posted On August 14, 2016

I debated this title for awhile. I very nearly went with Eleven Smart Owners and One Idiot, because it was easy to feel like the idiot in this room. In the end, I felt Swimming with Sharks was the most apropos title, because it flavors both how it felt to be in that room and feeds into how I tried to come at this draft. So let’s get to that.

My Meager Pre-Draft Strategy

If you want to know all the details of the league and draft, check out Nick’s post. I didn’t come into this draft with a whole lot. I had a notebook with me that I had written down roughly 50 players at each position, just so I wouldn’t forget any of the guys I really liked. There is one key thing I brought into the draft that I felt set me apart from most, however. I was taking the 0.25 points per carry very, very seriously. My main league is a PPC/PPR league not unlike this one, and I know from experience that you ignore the running back position at your own peril.

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Looking at the top scorers in this format, I saw wide receiver as being devalued compared to most leagues. Here’s how the top 100 players in this format broke down: 26 quarterbacks, 29 running backs, 34 wide receivers and 11 tight ends. By way of comparison, here’s how it breaks down in a vanilla 1-pt PPR league: 27 quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 40 wide receivers and 10 tight ends. You can see that this scoring largely flattens the curve for running backs and wide receivers. Wide receivers do still have the longevity factor in their favor, but for me this meant I needed to drop my normal extra weight given to the wide receiver position.

Then again, maybe I’m just dumb.

Lastly, I knew who I was drafting against. I’m not going to win a fantasy football knowledge contest with most of the owners in the room, and I could conceivably lose to all of them. (Now a game of Super Mario Kart would be a different story.) I knew I wasn’t going to out-scout the likes of Nick Whalen, George Kritikos or the Ryan McDowell/Brian Malone superteam, and I learned quickly I also couldn’t out-muscle Mo Brewington. With competition like this, I had two viable options in my mind: try not to lose with a normal strategy, or try to flip the script on everyone with a different strategy. So how did it play out?

The Draft

I ended up in the fifth draft position, and the first four picks were Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Allen Robinson. I thought for sure some of the folks in the room would have taken the PPC part of the scoring more seriously, and I expected someone to take Todd Gurley with that in mind. I gladly took him at 5.

Ten of the next fourteen picks came at the wide receiver position. But a certain once-highly-regarded running back was staring me in the face: Le’Veon Bell. I had the choice of taking Bell, or making what I saw as a substantial reach for a Randall Cobb or TY Hilton. I took Bell. Both aforementioned wide receivers went before my next pick, and all of the elite quarterbacks were gone as well. I took what looks like a reach to many but feels like a potentially great pick to me in a superflex dynasty: Jameis Winston.

My next pick was at 44, and wide receiver was looking quite grim. I expected as much, but I also knew that there is a lot of depth at that position, and I thought I could address it late. But I really wanted at least ONE of “my guys” so I took Tyler Lockett. Yes, the Matt Harmon bump is real, and I’m a believer.

From there on I kept reacting – Thomas Rawls in the fifth, followed by John Brown in the sixth. If I made a mistake, and I’m sure I made at least one, it was in the seventh. I had targeted my second QB there, but the McDowell/Malone team sniped me with taking Ryan Tannehill just before me. (And boy, if you ever want a tough position in a draft, go right after those two guys all day.) This is where the live format got to me a bit. Normally you have plenty of time to mull it over when you get sniped, but I felt a little pressure here and went with Jay Cutler. Eli Manning, Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer were all likely better picks.

My next three picks were Willie Snead, Stefon Diggs and Jay Ajayi. All guys I like. I was hoping to snag Eric Ebron in the 11^th for my tight end hole, but I got sniped once again by McDowell/Malone. So I went with Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, and then I threw up a little bit.

I spent the rest of the draft doing what I tried to do in the beginning – take my favorite guy on the board, regardless of position. If you wanted a guy in this league, you couldn’t afford to wait it out and hope he fell. He just wouldn’t – otherwise I’d own Duke Johnson.

After 22 picks in the live draft, here’s my roster:

QB: Winston, Cutler, Gabbert

RB: Gurley, Bell, Rawls, Ajayi, Paul Perkins, Zach Zenner

WR: Lockett, John Brown, Snead, Diggs, Torrey Smith, Malcolm Mitchell, Chris Moore, Boldin

TE: ASJ, Hunter Henry, Ben Watson, Jared Cook, Niles Paul

I feel like I got some of my best values with Torrey in the 12^th, Moore in the 18^th and Niles Paul in the 22^nd. I have high hopes for Torrey in the Chip Kelly offense, and Moore could easily emerge from the crowded Baltimore wide receiver depth chart. As far as Paul, I see him as a huge value – we talk quite a bit about Reed and his injury history, and his backup in that offense should have value.

Overall, I’m least happy with where I ended up at quarterback. I feel strong at running back, and I’m surprised by the total package of wide receivers I ended up with. No, I don’t have a stud, but I have some guys with real upside, and a guy in Lockett that I think could be a stud. I also really, really like Hunter Henry, even as a rookie TE, and have depth there as well.

Overall, it was a great experience. It was fun to meet so many of the other DLF writers and be able to put a face to the voice – many thanks to those who made it possible. It was also quite intimidating, as it’s easy to be in a crowd like that one. Still, I tried to keep it light and didn’t take it too seriously, as I would suggest everyone do. I’ve never “won” a draft, and neither have I ever “lost” one. This is only one tiny part of the overall process. Many questions remain for this league, and I look forward to answering them. Can I defeat the McDowell/Malone Hydra of Dynasty Knowledge? Can I convince Nick Whalen that Duke Johnson is a good football player? Will Izzy admit to rigging the lottery in his favor? We may never know.

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