32 Teams, 32 Questions: AFC East

Benton McDonald

New England Patriots

Can Dion Lewis replicate his 2015 five game tear over a full season?

According to his July ADP, dynasty owners certainly believe so. Currently being drafted as the RB13, Lewis has quite the price for a former 5th round pick with a long injury history and an incredibly small sample size of consistent production. Yet, the potential he showed as the feature back in the league’s best offense and the ceiling that that presents is one that can justify the price.

Let’s take a look at the five games in which Lewis had over 50 percent of the Patriots offensive snap counts at running back, weeks 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 (He tore his ACL in week nine). It’s clear that Lewis is the lightning to LeGarrette Blount’s thunder. In those five weeks, Lewis only had double digit carries once, while Blount eclipsed that mark three times, including one week with a whopping 29 touches. Yet Lewis never saw less than five targets in a game and totaled 25 receptions over his five game sample. That’s 80 receptions over a full regular season, which would have been tied for first among running backs.

His receiving upside is tremendous and there’s no reason to think that it will go anywhere in 2016. Blount is still his only completion in the backfield and he managed a grand total of six receptions in 2015. The rest of the offense has remained virtually unchanged along with the addition of tight end Martellus Bennett. While Bennett should play a decently sized role in the offense, he projects as more of a red zone threat and not somebody who will be sucking away targets from the rest of the offense. The reception floor that Lewis offers makes him an extremely valuable commodity in PPR leagues (which should be all of your leagues) and something that takes the pressure off his need to run the ball.

His 36 carries in the five game sample, 15 of which were gained in one game, equate to just 115 over a full season. This number places him in the Charles Sims and Duke Johnson Jr. carry range, two other backs featured for their receiving ability. Yet, Lewis had a YPC number equal to elite backs Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell. His efficiency as a runner is clearly there, yet the volume may not be.

Regardless of how many carries he accrues, it’s clear that New England sees him as a back worthy of feature status and if he can maintain health, there’s no reason to think that he cannot become a PPR stud in 2016. But let us not forget the famed Bill Belichick doghouse, one that is a much a killer to running backs careers as it is to fantasy owners championship dreams.

Buffalo Bills

Is 2016 the year Sammy Watkins puts it all together?

Sammy Watkins is on the cusp of joining the elite wide receiver fraternity in the NFL. After two seasons in Buffalo, in which he has finished as the WR25 and WR16 respectively, he seems primed in year three to finally approach the ceiling that warranted his top five selection in the 2014 draft. Yet his growing list of injury concerns along with the offensive style in Buffalo provide some downside that shouldn’t be ignored.

While I don’t have a specific stat to back it up, quarterback consistency usually leads to increased success for wide receivers. Thanks to the emergence of late career bloomer Tyrod Taylor, Watkins has a consistency at quarterback that many thought he would never see in Buffalo. Having a guy under center that has shown the ability to be a proficient NFL starter should help propel Watkins to the next level. Despite 32 less targets compared to his rookie year, Watkins was able to increase his yardage and touchdown numbers and nearly match his reception numbers with Taylor throwing him the ball in 2015.

And while the passing volume in Buffalo isn’t close to ideal, if Watkins can continue to consume the 112 targets he has averaged in his first two seasons then there is no doubt in my mind he can post a WR1 season. But then there’s the foot. Recovering from the same stress facture surgery that Dez Bryant went through, Watkins was placed on the PUP list to begin camp. Expected to resume practicing in the near future, it seems he will be ready to go in week one after a long offseason of healing.

While injuries are a growing concern, it’s simply a bad process as owners to stay away from a player of Watkins caliber simply because of the fear he may get hurt again. Over his final six games in 2015, he combined for 35 receptions for 679 yards and six touchdowns. For those counting at home, that’s 93 receptions for 1810 yards and 16 touchdowns extrapolated over a full season.

When healthy, he has shown the ability to dominate at the NFL level and going into his third year, the expectations are higher than ever for him to deliver. Still only 23, August could very well be the last month he has a double digit ADP for the foreseeable future. The stars are aligning for Watkins and this could be your last chance to jump in before it’s too late. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

New York Jets

Will Bilal Powell out-snap Matt Forte?

It seems to be a question that may seem much more realistic than many in the fantasy community want to believe. Powell, who is only making 150,000 less than Forte in 2016, has shown the ability to thrive in the Jets system as a pass catching back with surprising efficiency as a runner. Nearly receiving the same contract as Forte in the offseason, he is not here to be a backup as his ADP of RB57 may suggest.

And Forte is not here to be the starter, as his third round redraft ADP and RB24 dynasty ADP seem to suggest. Now 30 and on the downside of an amazingly consistent career, Forte owners may be in for a harsh taste of reality this season. Multiple reports this offseason told of the Jets plan for a “time-share” backfield with the goal to split work between Powell and Forte to give the latter “plenty of rest”. Not to mention the fact that Forte already aggravated his hamstring at the start of training camp, foreshadowing the devilish red Q next to his name in your lineup all season.

Yet while all signs point to Forte and Powell virtually sharing touches, Powell’s value has remained virtually unchanged. More so than when he was on a tag team with Chris Ivory, Powell could very well see the end zone with semi-consistency this season. No more is this more affirmed than in Jeremy Langford’s six touchdowns in 2015, as Matt Fortes backup.

Sharing a backfield with a guy on the wrong side of 30 that is already displaying injury concerns make Bilal Powell a sneaky good value for 2016 and someone who could easily win you a few games in the pivotal flex spot. The Jets have nearly as much fiscal responsibility to give him touches as they do Forte and it’s a bad process as an owner to lazily assume that Forte will dominate the back field just because he’s Matt Forte. Powell could very easily out-snap and out play Forte this season and the lag of this opportunity in the market is presenting an immense chance at value.

Miami Dolphins

Is anyone else worth targeting in this offense besides Jarvis Landry?

Taking a broad look at team-by-team fantasy outlooks for 2016, the Dolphins have one of the murkiest situations in the league. Their offense has pieces, yes, but they just have a multitude of players at both receiver and running back that have yet to differentiate themselves.

They signed Arian Foster to go along with Jay Ajayi and rookie Kenyan Drake, three guys who are as talented as they are injury prone. And while Foster optimists project he will become a bell cow in his age 29 season, he hasn’t played a full season in three years and is coming off an Achilles tear, historically one of the hardest injuries to return from. This backfield just seems destined to become some sort of committee and there’s really no safe bet for fantasy production between the three of them.

Now on the receiver side, talent is galore but it’s the production splits that are the question. The aforementioned Landry is going to soak up targets and receptions, its nearly fact. His 111 receptions last year should be a healthy median between his floor and ceiling for 2016, opening the door for him to become an extremely productive PPR receiver once again. It’s the other three receivers production outlook where things get messy. Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, and Leonte Carroo are all heavily entrenched in the battle for the remaining two spots (in three-WR sets) and at this point in camp, no one seems to have pulled ahead. Parker was the favorite heading in to start opposite Landry but has been sidelined for most of camp with hamstring issues. Stills has been running with the ones with rookie Carroo joining in for the three WR sets. All three players are under 25 years old and all three are immensely talented. If Parkers health remains an issue, as it was for most of the offseason, the odds are on Stills to potentially run away with the job after a disappointing 27 catch campaign last season. Yet Carroo may very well be the best player of the three and the draft picks given up my Miami to select him despite already having Still, Parker and Landry may point to how high of a ceiling he has.

And while the production may be murky, August is the ideal month to invest in payers like Parker and Carroo. Their unknown outlooks for 2016 lower their value despite the talent that is clearly there. If you believe they are talented enough, then the production will eventually come, it’s just a matter of when. That’s why buying low on these guys when others are selling due to the fear of the unknown is such a +EV move in the chess match that is winning a dynasty league. So while I’m not hammering the table for any Dolphins in 2016 besides Juice, and especially none of the running backs, buying low on any of their three receivers behind Landry seems like the play to make in the time before the season.