$250 FFPC Dynasty Start-up Draft Review
Editor’s Note: Welcome to our coverage of the FFPC’s high-stakes dynasty format. The FFPC games are unlike any other in the industry due to their reputation and visibility in the space. From their first introduction in 2010, they only continue to gain in popularity.
The third installment of our 2016 FFPC draft coverage for 2016!
DLF and the FFPC are partners once again in 2016 and we’re covering live drafts to be used as another source of reference for your own drafts. The thought here is that the “high stakes” element brings with it a high degree of fantasy coaching experience and performance. These coaches are putting serious money on the line with the hope of greater payouts at the end of the rainbow and you can bet most put a lot of work and research into each selection. With this particular FFPC dynasty league requiring a $250 entry fee, there’s little room for mistakes.
This review is for a $250 12-team start-up draft. Standard scoring Point Per Reception (PPR) format with the exception that tight ends receive 1.5 PPR. Passing touchdowns are worth the standard four points while rushing and receiving touchdowns bring six points each. Starting rosters are as follows: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF/ST. One note about the FFPC Dynasty format: Each team has 20 total roster spots with one each given to kickers and Defense. At the end of each year, teams must drop four players to reach a total of 16 total players. This makes for a relatively shallow roster with emphasis on productive players.
You can see all of the rules at MYFFPC.com.
If you’re ready to step up to the most serious dynasty competition on the planet, we highly suggest you check out the FFPC Dynasty Games!
For this review, I’ll be listing ten rounds of selections with a brief summary following each round. In addition, I’m going to switch it up just a bit from my last review and provide my input as to which picks I believe represent the best value and biggest reach.
For reference, you can find our first installment, a $1,250 draft right here.
Let’s dive in!
Round One
1.01 Odell Beckham, WR NYG
1.02 Todd Gurley, RB STL
1.03 Julio Jones, WR ATL
1.04 Antonio Brown, WR PIT
1.05 Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
1.06 Allen Robinson, WR JAX
1.07 DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
1.08 Mike Evans, WR TB
1.09 David Johnson, RB ARI
1.10 Amari Cooper, WR OAK
1.11 Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
1.12 A.J. Green, WR CIN
Summary
Pretty standard first round with the usual suspects. Nothing really to see here other than we do see Le’Veon Bell fall from the first round, as expected.
Best Value: None
Biggest Reach: None
Round Two
2.01 Brandin Cooks, WR NO
2.02 Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
2.03 Keenan Allen, WR SDC
2.04 Dez Bryant, WR DAL
2.05 Jordan Reed, TE WAS
2.06 Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
2.07 Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
2.08 Lamar Miller, RB MIA
2.09 DeVante Parker, WR MIA
2.10 T.Y. Hilton, WR IND
2.11 Kevin White, WR CHI
2.12 Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN
Summary
A little bit of valuation inflation for a couple of names here, most notably Brandon Cooks, Devonta Freeman, T.Y. Hilton and Laquon Treadwell. Nothing horrible but we are starting to see running backs creep up in value just a bit over the past couple of weeks.
Best Value: Dez Bryant. I love this selection at 2.04. Bryant is coming back from a disappointing and injury filled season as is quarterback Tony Romo but it seems he’s 100% healthy and has a chip on his shoulder. I don’t think there should be as much fear about Romo in ’16 and if he stays healthy, Dez is a first round lock for production in my eyes.
Biggest Reach: Brandin Cooks. I just can’t get there with Cooks bordering on the first round. He should be a PPG gem and was the WR12 in PPR in 2015 but I don’t expect the same production in 2016 and he still only caught nine touchdowns last year. I need more upside from my WR1. Cooks fits the bill of more of a tweener WR1 or solid WR2 in my estimation
Round Three
3.01 Jarvis Landry, WR MIA
3.02 Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
3.03 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
3.04 Josh Gordon, WR CLE
3.05 Donte Moncrief, WR IND
3.06 Andrew Luck, QB IND
3.07 Randall Cobb, WR GB
3.08 Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
3.09 Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
3.10 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
3.11 Russell Wilson, QB SEA
3.12 Cam Newton, QB CAR
Summary
Interesting round three with a couple of head-scratching picks. High upside for sure but I wouldn’t catch myself making risky picks this early, though I do tend to be a bit more production-based in start-up drafts unless I’m drafting specifically for youth. Three quarterbacks in this round ups the ante a bit with Luck going off the board first. Given Luck’s less than stellar, but injured, play in 2015, and as much as I’d like him I’d have to yield to another coach selecting him ahead of me unless he fell another round or two.
Best Value: Le’Veon Bell. He’s not dead, just suspended and there’s some confidence that Bell’s suspension could be overturned. I’ll believe that when I see it but, either way, he’s still young and a top back. Getting him in the third round is a coup of a pick and should incite immediate dancing from the selecting coach when he goes on the clock and sees the name still there.
Biggest Reach: Josh Gordon. I understand the risk-reward and the upside but in a start-up draft, you can’t do it. Gordon has not played in a game in forever and a day and hasn’t shown any ability to be dependable enough to taken this highly. Call me a fool when he pans out but even as an owner of Gordon in many leagues, I can’t support this selection. Just too much risk and losing a third round selection for a ‘shot’ could be too impactful.
Round Four
4.01 Travis Kelce, TE KC
4.02 Jordy Nelson, WR GB
4.03 Corey Coleman, WR CLE
4.04 Golden Tate, WR DET
4.05 Jeremy Maclin, WR KC
4.06 Carlos Hyde, RB SF
4.07 Eddie Lacy, RB GB
4.08 Mark Ingram, RB NO
4.09 Sterling Shepard, WR NYG
4.10 Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
4.11 Zach Ertz, TE PHI
4.12 Greg Olsen, TE CAR
Summary
This may be the most solid round four of the three drafts I’ve reviewed thus far. All these picks have value, upside and enough intrigue to be considered solid selections here in this round. I’m slightly nervous about Tate and Ingram but not so much as to label the selections foolhardy. Additionally, I’m happy to see Coleman drop to the fourth round which is much more representative of his value. Having seen him selected as high as the second round, this selection is much more realistic considering his rookie status and downside.
Best Value: No solid value or reaches in this round, just good overall picks. Put a gun to my head and I’ll label Nelson as the best value here. He is returning from injury and needs to prove his health but all signs point to a solid recovery and a return to pre-injury form.
Biggest Reach: None. Sometimes you have to give credit where credit is due, I like the ADP and the value obtained in this round. Good job coaches.
Round Five
5.01 Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
5.02 Coby Fleener, TE NO
5.03 Michael Floyd, WR ARI
5.04 Doug Martin, RB TB
5.05 Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
5.06 Josh Doctson, WR WAS
5.07 Brandon Marshall, WR NYJ
5.08 Eric Ebron, TE DET
5.09 Julius Thomas, TE JAX
5.10 John Brown, WR ARI
5.11 Jamaal Charles, RB KC
5.12 Melvin Gordon, RB SD
Summary
Things are starting to spread out a bit now and we’re beginning to see strategies play out along with the struggle between age, youth and production. On the surface, this round looks solid with, again, value at a level expected in the fifth round. Aaron Rodgers at 5.05 is a nice ‘get’ and Doug Martin is a stable add as well. No significant reaches again that really stand out, leading me to believe that these coaches have done a solid job of looking at other drafts, valuation metrics and working their strategies.
Best Value: Aaron Rodgers. I hate listing a quarterback as a value play in the fifth round but despite my aversion of early quarterbacks, I can’t label Rodgers as anything other than a value here. If you have assembled four other skill position players and have the ability to add the, arguably, top production quarterback in the league in the fifth round or beyond, you will sleep really well knowing you have a strong starting five. Nothing wrong with that here. Brandon Marshall in the fifth is also a phenomenal value.
Biggest Reach: Again, nothing that really sticks out but I still find myself uncomfortable with the risk of Coby Fleener. The camp news has been touting him as has Drew Brees. We all know what Brees did for Jimmy Graham and Fleener is athletic enough to produce. Don’t forget that Josh Hill was hyped early as well last year (I traded him wherever I could). That’s not to say that Hill and Fleener are the same player and I’ve always been high on Fleener’s athletic upside. With Brees under center, Fleener’s value will be higher but with other names still on the board, I’d prefer not roll those dice here in the fifth.
Round Six
6.01 Ladarius Green, TE PIT
6.02 Gio Bernard, RB CIN
6.03 T.J. Yeldon, RB JAX
6.04 Thomas Rawls, RB SEA
6.05 Duke Johnson, RB CIN
6.06 C.J. Anderson, RB DEN
6.07 C.J. Prosise, RB SEA
6.08 Doug Baldwin, WR SEA
6.09 Delanie Walker, TE TEN
6.10 LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
6.11 Derrick Henry, RB TEN
6.12 Allen Hurns, WR JAX
Summary
Not a lot to argue about here and this draft, so far, is shaping up to be a template for what you can expect in your upcoming start-up drafts. These coaches are doing a fine job of working value and upside while building their rosters. Only minor issues that I have in this round, making for a very solid last three rounds without any major gaffes. Clearly, this round is about running backs which is about right. Note that for those of you wanting to build receiver early. This is a great spot to get your second back.
Best Value: Two Seattle names float my boat equally here, both Rawls and Baldwin. Baldwin in the sixth round could very well outplay this selection by four rounds if he can in any way replicate even 75% of his 2015 production, which I think he will accomplish. He’s an ideal WR3 with week to week WR1 upside. I have him as a WR4 in two leagues, including a redraft league this year, and couldn’t be happier. If you can get him as a WR3 or lower, he’s an immediate add. Thomas Rawls in the sixth round has great upside. More risk due to injury but with the youth on the Hawks, expect Rawls to see a lot of touches. He’s best as a RB2 so plan accordingly.
Biggest Reach: C.J. Prosise. Someone is reaching too far in my opinion by selecting the converted running back. He does possess three down size at 6′ and 220 lbs., but is raw as a runner even if adept out of the backfield. I just don’t see Prosise as a three-down starter and feel that fellow rookie Alex Collins is better suited in that offense. In PPR leagues, Prosise does carry more value but this is a clear reach.
Round Seven
7.01 Matt Jones, RB WAS
7.02 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN
7.03 Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
7.04 Dion Lewis, RB NE
7.05 Devin Funchess, WR CAR
7.06 Eric Decker, WR NYJ
7.07 Latavius Murray, RB OAK
7.08 Stegon Diggs, WR MIN
7.09 Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
7.10 Julian Edelman, WR NE
7.11 Blake Bortles, QB JAX
7.12 Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
Summary
Some great value in this round and here is where the strategy can really be your friend or enemy. The seventh and eighth rounds are fantastic for adding slipping players that carry perhaps a bit more age but stellar production, or your first quarterback if not playing in a super-flex (2QB) league. If you’ve built a little young in the early rounds, use these next two rounds to add veteran production that still have 3+ years of use on their tires. Three years of service is a quality play and players like Edelman, Decker and Murray could be huge week-to-week. Or, if you’ve built upon veteran production, this is the round to begin targeting that youth with upside. DGB, Matt Jones, Diggs and Blake Bortles make fine upside, youthful, selections.
Best Value: Edelman and Decker. I’ll go with Edelman as the best value here. Yes he’s 30 and had an injury scare in camp but is a solid production target that should be off the board by now. He was the WR33 last year but project his average through 16 games and you’ll find him at the WR7. I’ll take that production given his age and injury history every draft in the seventh if available.
Biggest Reach: None. There’s no poor selections here. I could throw a stone at the Ameer Abdullah selection but there’s upside here and a round early isn’t enough to get overly excited about as a “reach”. These coaches are impressing me with their selections and I tend to be a critical judge.
Round Eight
8.01 Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
8.02 Jameis Winston, QB TB
8.03 Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
8.04 Matt Forte, RB NYJ
8.05 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE TB
8.06 Derek Carr, QB OAK
8.07 Marvin Jones, WR DET
8.08 Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
8.09 DeMarco Murray, RB TEN
8.10 Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
8.11 Devontae Booker, RB DEN
8.12 Jeremy Langford, RB CHI
Summary
Right on queue, the next quarterbacks are off the board in addition to the next set of RB3-types. I’m starting to sound cliche but this draft is very solid and these owners are selecting good value, reaching appropriately and building out their squads quite successfully as the rounds roll on. As expected the young upside quarterbacks are going off the board as well as the aging veterans that will contribute to the bottom line for one or two more years. There are a couple of picks that I really like in this round.
Best Value: DeMarco Murray. At 8.09 there’s just no other way to describe this pick other than sheer value. I know the fantasy community at large is down on Murray but so they were, too, on Doug Martin last year and I grabbed him in the eighth or ninth round and rode him to a top producer finish at the position. Murray is one year removed from the disaster that was Philadelphia and there’s little way he doesn’t carry the load for the Titans in a big way. Sure Derrick Henry could factor but I expect Murray to get 20+ touches a game. Ride him.
Biggest Reach: Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Truth be told I don’t dislike this pick as much as I slightly question it given the situation ASJ finds himself in. He remains in the coach’s doghouse and has been outplayed by Cameron Brate, who also should be rostered as you read this. In this offense, the starting TE could have serious upside so either is worthy of a selection but I’d prefer not touch this situation until the double-digit rounds.
Round Nine
9.01 Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
9.02 Dwayne Allen, TE IND
9.03 Michael Crabtree, WR OAK
9.04 Michael Thomas, WR NO
9.05 Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
9.06 Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
9.07 Gary Barnidge, TE CLE
9.08 Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT
9.09 Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE
9.10 Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL
9.11 Ryan Mathews, RB PHI
9.12 Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
Summary
Upside youth is served primarily. Value-based reaches are starting to show but round nine is a good play to reach aggressively for ‘ceiling’ as long as you’re happy with your core build through eight rounds. Selections like Tevin Colemanb, Michael Thomas, Phillip Dorsett, Tyler Boyd and Kenneth Dixon make a lot sense here, as do the veteran picks of Gary Barnidge, Big Ben and Ryan Mathews. Depending on your build, this round has options for every coach. This is where your homework pays dividends so be sure to have a set of players you like beyond 100 overall selections. Be laser focused and discerning.
Best Value: Michael Thomas. I’m not normally a huge fan of selecting a rookie as best value but all the news coming from NOLA paints a picture of early productivity for Thomas. He’s not high on my rookie list but he’s picking up steam and with Drew Brees at the helm, it’s hard to cast a shadow on his selection here in the ninth round. With size, speed and as a replacement for Marques Colston, there seems to be a lot of fire below the smoke that has been Coleman thus far into camps.
Biggest Reach: There’s no significant reach here but I’ll still select Nelson Agholor. I haven’t been a fan from the very beginning and I remain steadfast in my dislike for Agholor’s upside and potential production. Just as most other USC receiver transitions into the NFL, Agholor has bust and waiver wire written all over him in fantasy.
Round Ten
10.01 Willie Snead, WR NO
10.02 Clive Walford, TE OAK
10.03 Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
10.04 Leonte Carroo, WR MIA
10.05 Sammie Coates, WR PIT
10.06 Theo Riddick, RB DET
10.07 Arian Foster, RB MIA
10.08 Will Fuller, WR HOU
10.09 Danny Woodhead, RB SD
10.10 Hunter Henry, TE SD
10.11 Jordan Howard, RB CHI
10.12 Charles Simms, RB TB
Summary
As we wrap up the selection dialog, the group is finishing strong in round ten. Youth is still being served but mixed in are veteran names that could provide significant production in 2016 and perhaps 2017. Arian Foster, Danny Woodhead and Willie Snead should all produce well in ’16 . Both Foster and Woodhead are likely nearing the end but remain high-tough targets. Willie Snead burst onto the scene in ’16 and established himself as a last-flex play that could produce at WR2 levels on any given Sunday. These are valuable assets to have as bye week plays while we wait to see if they can stay healthy or produce consistently such that they find their way into your lineup on a weekly basis.
Best Value: It’s hard not to like the Hunter Henry at 10.10 but Willie Snead to kick off this round is a great selection. He was the WR31 in 2016 while getting off to a slower start and missing week 14. Look for Snead to pick up where he left off and push for WR30 or better numbers again. He’s far better in PPR formats than standard, but either way, he’ll provide value this late in a draft.
Biggest Reach: None. All picks in this round are worthy selections with appropriate upside. While Sammie Coates would otherwise be a reach here, the suspension of Martavis Bryant thrusts Coates into a high-snap play. I have a hard time not seeing Mike Wallace type production possibilities with Coates and I’m not a Wallace fan, but you could do worse.
Remaining Rounds
Wrap-up
I hope this recap has been beneficial. Use it to gauge player value prior to your draft and, especially, toward determining how you want to build your team, where you should draft your first quarterback and what tight end possibilities remain if you wait a few rounds. We have two more draft reviews of this format in the next few weeks so if you have an upcoming draft, you’ll be able to use multiple draft reviews toward determining the likelihood that players will come off the board at a given time. Even if your draft is just around the corner, these drafts can be an invaluable tool for suggesting player selection and value.
One last time, most coaches will like their first three or four selections. Your draft and long term team strength will be determined in the following eight or so rounds. So do your homework, look at many drafts with a keen eye on your draft slot and don’t get outworked.
If you have any questions, please comment below or follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff
Find out more about these exciting high stakes dynasty leagues on FFPCC.com!
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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