32 Teams, 32 IDP Questions – NFC North

We’re in the heart of training camp, which means frequent news updates and plenty of ensuing questions. It also means we’re only a few weeks until rosters and depth charts are set for week one. On the IDP side, we’re analyzing all 32 teams separately to address a related question about each team.

There are position battles and injury concerns in the NFC North with potentially significant IDP implications. Today, we will take a look at four of those situations and assess the IDP impact.

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What is happening with DeAndre Levy? Can he still be relied on as a top linebacker?

Lions’ general manager Bob Quinn recently claimed Levy’s health is “not much of a concern,” but Levy continues to remain sidelined following his 2015 hip surgery. After missing the last season with a hip injury requiring surgery, if rankings are any indication, many expect Levy to return to top 10 to 15 production in 2016.

While he participated in offseason activities like OTAs and minicamp, Levy started training camp on the non-football injury PUP list with an undisclosed injury. Neither Bob Quinn nor Jim Caldwell will comment on whether it’s knee or hip-related. Naturally, the concern is whether Levy experienced a setback in his hip rehab, though both insist Levy won’t be on the PUP for a long-period. The situation is unsettling, to say the least.

There are a couple of questions at play here – first, is Levy healthy enough or is there some risk in him being in the lineup week one? And, second, if Levy is back in the lineup, can he return to 2014 form?

On the first point, we can’t do anything but speculate right now. The Lions could be easing Levy into the lineup to ensure he’s 100% healthy, he could have a new injury or there could have been a setback with his hip. Regardless, as Eric Breeze of Rotoworld highlighted within the last few weeks, the history on NFL hip injuries isn’t great (see Percy Harvin, Bo Jackson, Dennis Pitta, etc). There is also recent speculation hip injuries are threatening the careers of Antonio Cromartie and Brandon Boykin. Unfortunately, hip injuries appear to linger and are often reaggravated, which makes sense considering the change of direction and flexibility requirements as an NFL player.

On the flip side, there are some positive stories like Brandon Marshall and Kam Chancellor. While Marshall returned to an elite level following hip surgery, he recently admitted he almost quit football a few years ago after his body wasn’t responding well. Bottom line – hip surgeries are concerning for NFL players and it’s a notable concern with Levy.

Even so, let’s say Levy is more like Marshall and Chancellor and recovers well, risk remains. Most currently rank Levy as a Top 10 linebacker this season largely driven by his 117 solo tackles in 2014, which led the NFL. Levy’s 2014 tackle accumulation was directly correlated to Stephen Tulloch being out for most of the year. Tahir Whitehead replaced Tulloch, but was still getting accustomed to the middle linebacker role at the time and didn’t improve until late in the season. So, there was little tackle competition for Levy with Tulloch out in 2014. With Whitehead gaining a few years under his belt, there will be much more competition for tackles. Levy’s return to 2014 production will be a challenge, as a result.

All of this was a long way of stating there is considerable risk with Levy’s current IDP value. If you can trade him at top 15 linebacker levels, it’s a very solid move considering his injury and production risk.

Who will replace Antrell Rolle as the Bears’ starting strong safety?

The starting strong safety spot opposite Adrian Amos was vacated with the release of Rolle following the 2016 NFL draft. The Bears drafted Deon Bush in the fourth round and he is expected to heavily compete for the starting spot. Considering his physicality and his recently praised range, I continue to expect Bush to win the job. Initial impressions in camp are favorable and, according to Bears’ safeties coach Sam Garnes, his coverage skills are better than expected. He went on to say, “it sent chills down my spine. I’m not joking. This kid is impressive.” A bit of a hyperbole, but it’s a great sign for Bush. He’ll also need to keep up the performance and for it to translate into preseason games to win the job outright.

Currently, Harold Jones-Quartey is the incumbent and earlier in the offseason, beat writers speculated Jones-Quartey would be the 2016 starter considering his 2015 performance in limited action. The competition is fierce to start camp with Jones-Quartey reportedly stepping up his play. He’s been more vocal, more physical and is playing with the first team early on. He also claims secondary coach Ed Donatell likens him to Donte Whitner, who excelled in Vic Fangio’s scheme in San Francisco.

While Jones-Quartery is nice story as an undrafted free agent waiver claim who worked his way into the starting lineup, and he has NFL experience in his favor, the Bears spent some draft capital on Bush for a reason. Bush may not start immediately, but I still expect him to take the job in 2016 and prove a worthy IDP asset. This position should prove to possess nice IDP production.

Who will be the Packers’ inside linebackers and will they have IDP value?

Sam Barrington started camp on the PUP list, which is concerning for someone who missed all but a few snaps of the 2015 season with a foot injury. Because of Barrington’s lengthy absence, both Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez have assumed the starting inside linebacker spots.

Early reports on Martinez are positive suggesting he’s picking things up quickly. Along with playing with the first team, he’s seen time with as the unit’s lone linebacker in dime packages. The important factor in his snap share potential will be whether he effectively exhibits the ability to defend the run through the preseason. Morgan Burnett has also played the dime role over the past few weeks. If Burnett moves into the box as the dime linebacker over Martinez, his value will spike and he’ll cap Martinez’s short-term potential.

Ryan is in the flip situation. He’s fantastic against the run, but needs to improve in coverage. As an intelligent high motor player lacking athleticism, it’ll be important to monitor his coverage effectiveness in live preseason action as it will be the key to his snap potential and IDP value.

Overall, there is a lot of risk in this situation with the young linebackers requiring improvement in certain areas. It’s still a very important battle to monitor through the end of the summer because of the IDP value at stake. Currently, I rank them: Martinez, Ryan and Barrington. Martinez and Ryan are very close with a large gap between Ryan and Barrington as he continues to squander opportunity sitting on the PUP. He could push himself back in the mix if he returns in short order, but it’s becoming less likely as days pass.

Martinez and Ryan both have the potential for value in 2016 and beyond, but the key will be Burnett’s role in the dime and whether either, or both, can improve their perceived shortcomings.

Is Danielle Hunter really the breakout candidate many are predicting?

100%.

Since last year, Hunter put on seven pounds of muscle and is garnering early attention flashing a quick release off the line. After the way he finished 2015, with three and a half sacks in the matter of four weeks, he’s prime for a breakout.

Assessing his long-term value, what often gets lost with Hunter is he was only 20-years-old as a rookie. Headed into 2016, he’s now 21 and still developing both his pass-rushing repertoire and physically. We are still nowhere near his ceiling.

Many have tabbed the Robison/Hunter training camp battle as one to keep a close eye on, but starter or not, Hunter will see meaningful snaps.

Brian Robison will likely cap his 2016 breakout, but Robison already conceded he’ll kick inside in order to get Hunter more snaps much like he did towards the end of the 2015 season. Double-digit sacks are very likely. The question will be how much Robison caps Hunter’s breakout. Rather than acquiring Hunter now with his breakout priced into his value, if you can’t acquire him at a reasonable cost, it may be best to wait and hope for a slow start with Robison still in the mix. Hunter is a Top 10 defensive end option in dynasty.

Bonus: Grab Devin Taylor, if you can. He had 27 tackles and seven sacks in 2015 on 55 percent of the team’s snaps. He excelled with Jason Jones out of the lineup late last year (sack in each game), which bodes well for the upcoming season as he assumes a starting spot. Oh, 2016 is also a contract year for Taylor.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski

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