Summer Sleeper: New York Jets
We continue our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
- Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
- Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
- Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Tyler Lockett or Carlos Hyde, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Willie Snead is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
Maybe I’m old-fashioned, but I like to think it will take time for a college player to adapt to the NFL. Everything changes for these youngsters. They move homes, have a new workplace which requires them to work harder and practice differently, and they aren’t the stars of their teams any more.
Once upon a time, wide receiver was regarded as one of the hardest positions to learn, and we gave players two or three years before we started to see them develop. Now, with the recent explosion of the young guns at the position, our patience has run out. We focus on the recent, and forget the historical. Because of this, the 2015 class as a whole is being undervalued (including running backs in a big way), and a few players in particular have become so cheap I can’t fathom. One of them is an athletic specimen from Ohio State.
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Devin Smith, WR
Category: Deep Sleeper
This time last year, I was in the second round of a 16-team rookie draft and had two top wideouts to choose from – Smith and Tyler Lockett. I was frustrated that the decision hadn’t been made by those ahead of me. Now, what to do? My first move was to try and trade for the pick just after mine, to nab them both. No dice. So, a decision had to be made. On one hand, we had an explosive, touchdown-scoring second round pick, but a player who ended up in perhaps the worst spot of all receivers in Smith. On the other, a true ‘technician’ – the smaller, more shifty player who had impressed in training camp with his outstanding route running and football brain (Lockett). After taking into account my own film-watching, the views of others, draft capital and every single tweet and YouTube highlight video I could find, I went with Smith.
These two took completely opposite paths in 2015, but to see the difference in ADP between Smith and Lockett (and the rest of the class) right now is staggering. In the June and July ADP data, Smith has gone undrafted. Undrafted! I understand he should have experienced a fall, but this is absurd. Outside the top 100 receivers? I’m not having it. (By the way, that story wasn’t to persuade anyone that Smith was the right decision over Lockett – he’s a superstar in the making.)
Scouting Reports
There were a number of writers and analysts high on Smith heading into the draft – our George Kritikos describing himself as “a card carrying member of the “Devin Smith is Awesome” ™ fan club“. Jon Moore (@TheCFX), formerly of RotoViz and now of PFF was in love with the Buckeye wideout, outlining some thoughts and crazy stats in an article last year. Smith’s college performances also measured up well in Matt Harmon’s Perception Reception.
As I watched him in preparation for the draft, I kept moving him up my own board. He’s explosive. He’s aggressive in fighting for the ball. He plays with purpose. Here are some highlights:
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Just watch Smith pluck, locate and haul in the ball from the air. He gets deep and man-handles defenders. I know that we see players do this in college time and time again and they aren’t able to translate it to the professional level, but we haven’t even allowed Smith that opportunity yet.
Rookie Campaign (Or Lack Thereof)
Obviously, he didn’t perform well in his first year, as I wouldn’t have the opportunity to write this piece and get a hold of him anywhere I can on the cheap. He was the 37th overall pick in the draft, so expectations would have been high, but behind Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker these expectations were tempered. He recorded just nine grabs for 115 yards and one score, but the bigger concern in an unproductive season was an ACL injury he suffered in December. Smith has a long road to a full recovery, and is expected to begin this season on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list. This is a red flag, and I won’t deny that. However, players can get injured at any time in their careers – Smith just happened to get hurt before we’ve had a chance to see what he can do.
Dynasty Future
Sometimes, you just have to be bold. We know that the players in the top 10, 50 and 100 are good – that’s why they are there. After that, rankings and ADP are so open to change that someone can move up 50/100 spots with just a good game or two. When a player you like is undervalued – whether he’s a favorite, someone who hasn’t had the chance yet or even a high draft pick that hasn’t yet panned out, we have to make moves. A large group of players at the top of dynasty ADP and the pinnacle of the NFL started slow and took time to adjust. Devin Smith has done nothing yet to even consider him a contributor, but I’m willing to take the chance that his career isn’t over before it’s even begun. He’s cheap enough that you should too.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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