Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and we may answer them in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
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Let’s get to it!
1. Trade my 2016 1.05 and Gio Bernard for Randall Cobb and one of D. Allen or E. Ebron? I currently have L. Miller, D. Lewis, M. Gordon and L. Murray at RB. Mike in Chi Town
(10 teams, PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1FLEX, 2SFLEX, D, K)
Mike, this deal hinges on how you feel about Cobb. If you believe he is the 2014 version (28th player overall in PPR scoring) then you may jump on this deal, though if you think he’s the 2015 version (69th player overall) you may prefer to hold. While he has been one of the more polarizing players in dynasty, I find this his ADP (26th overall in July) to be pricing him at his ceiling. Though he is only 25, it is clear to me that he is not a WR1 and needs to be opposite a true top receiver who draws attention away from him.
With this limited ceiling, I’d hold onto the pick (which I would use on a younger version of Cobb with similar limitations in Sterling Shepard) and Gio. Especially given that you are not required to start any tight ends, even with the option of using a tight end at flex, I would easily prefer Gio over either tight end.
That said, you are in good shape at running back, and could trade from your depth in addition to the pick to aim for a quarterback as you can start up to three with the two superflex spots in the lineup.
2. After wheeling and dealing in the offseason I’ve noticed an unintended trend with my RBs: they are all coming off serious injuries. Melvin, Le’Veon, Rawls, Ingram, Blount… I’m even fielding a devy deal for Chubb (give two ’16 seconds). Is this kind of set up crazy? No way *all* these guys get hurt again, right? FWIW I’ve got Lamar Miller, Theo Riddick & Derrick Henry too. Jacob in Austin
(10 teams, standard, 1QB 2RB 2WR TE FLEX D/ST K)
Jacob, while it is certainly concerning to have a roster full of running backs who have not been pictures of health, taking a longer look at the position how many do you feel truly comfortable with? Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Dion Lewis, Jay Ajayi, Arian Foster are just a sample of the other top running backs who also have injury histories in college and/or the NFL.
Simply put, running backs get hurt. You aren’t in any worse shape than anyone else, and have some of the players with the highest upside at the position. You can only start up to three running backs each week anyway, so you may find that you will have a more difficult time choosing your starters than you anticipate. If you want to diversify and acquire a “safe” wide receiver or two, you certainly have the running back depth in a RB-heavy scoring format to pull off a deal.
3. Lost in SB last year and will be very competitive again. I really like my team but looking to solidify my future by pursuing Moncrief, T. Lockett, and D. Parker. Since none of them will likely crack my starting lineup, am I trading just to trade?
QB – Carson Palmer, D. Carr
RB – D. Johnson, Woodhead, Gio, Yeldon, T. Coleman, K. Drake, T. Ervin
WR – A. Brown, A. Rob, D. Hopkins, A. Jeffrey, Cobb, Decker, L. Caroo
TE – T. Eifert, A. Gates, W. Tye. Anthony in San Antonio
10 teams, PPR, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 FLEX
Anthony, it is smart to be aware of the potential that you are “trading just to trade” given that those of us who are very active throughout the off-season have a tendency to get antsy when activity slows down. I also find it difficult not to send out trade offers to other active owners on a regular basis to keep my interest level up in the league.
In this situation, however, it appears you are actually looking to trade for one (or combination) of three very specific wide receivers with great upside and even greater hype. As a contender, you don’t need to acquire any of these players, and frankly I would sit tight with my roster. Now is not the time to trade for these guys when the dynasty community is valuing them as highly as they are, and much of their value is in their youth with the perception that they will be in the league a very long time. The added variable, of course, is the unknown of what the owner(s) of these players will request in exchange for budding stars.
In reality, there will be inconsistency as this trio shares targets with the likes of T.Y. Hilton, Doug Baldwin and Jarvis Landry, meaning they are likely to give you a single-digit point total as often as they explode for 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Where you can start up to four wide receivers per week, and you have the roster listed above, I would not pay the high price for the boom-or-bust weekly output that will come with the unproven.
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In regards to question 3. While the team is obviously set at WR, if he truly wants to acquire any of those players now is the time. If these players perform to expectation, they are at their cheapest right now. Waiting into the season or another year could price those guys right out of the reasonable.
It really comes down to how sure he is of a particular player. It may burn him but if it doesn’t and those players reach their lofty expectations, he’ll be set for another 5+ years at the position.
If these wide receivers perform up to their lofty expectations, their value will increase next year. With all the hype around these guys, however, I see them generally being valued close to their ceilings already. I wouldn’t trade any of the top 4 wide receivers on the roster for any of these guys, so as I mentioned the added variable is what they will cost. Looking into trades for these players is certainly worth it for an owner targeting them, but it all hinges on what their current owners need in return.