32 Teams, 32 Questions: AFC West

Nathan Powell

With Training Camps starting up this week, it is a great time for fantasy analysts and readers alike to ask the important questions that will have an impact on players and their respective fantasy seasons. In this article, we will be covering the AFC West, a division with the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders and the San Diego Chargers.

Kansas City Chiefs

Will Jamaal Charles rebound to full health in 2016? If he does, what does that mean for the offense?

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America runs on Dunkin’, and the Chiefs offense runs of Jamaal Charles. Despite the fact that the Chiefs went on a torrid 11-win, two-loss run with Charles sidelined for the season in 2015, the offense is definitely in a better place with Charles in the backfield. He has been a workhorse for the Chiefs during his career with 190+ carries in each of his healthy seasons since 2009, along with a yards per carry above 5.0 in each of his NFL seasons.

As far as Charles’ current health, at last update, he was expected to miss the start of training camp due to his second major knee injury in four years, but he did participate in individual drills in mini-camp and is expected to be healthy enough to start in week 1. So what does a healthy Charles mean for the rest of the Chiefs’ fantasy relevant options? In Jeremy Maclin’s first season with the Chiefs, Maclin actually saw his role decrease with Charles on the sideline. Per the Rotoviz Game Split App, Maclin was targeted 10.4 times with Charles in the game, compared to only 7.2 with Charles on the sideline. This could be a symptom of the fact that the Chiefs were losing with Charles in the backfield in 2016 and went on an 11-game game win streak with him out, but it could also mean that with Charles in the backfield, Smith and the Chiefs are more pass heavy and aggressive, while being more run heavy and conservative without their best player on offense available. Where Maclin did benefit from the Charles absence was in the touchdown department, scoring seven of his eight receiving touchdowns in 2015 with Charles out. Whether Charles is in or out, it doesn’t seem to have much effect on Travis Kelce, as his averages in PPR points, targets, catches and touchdowns are nearly identical on both sides of the split

The benefactors of any setback from Charles are the same as last season, Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware. Many suspect that the Chiefs could use Ware in red zone even with a healthy Charles, Ware rushed for six touchdowns in 2015 and could be the best way to limit Charles’ touches and help keep him healthy. West would only be a factor again in the event of another Charles’ injury.

Denver Broncos

What will the offense look like in the Post-Peyton era?

In the last few years, the question has been what will happen to the Broncos weapons in fantasy in life without Peyton Manning? After Manning ended his career with his worst statistical season of his career, now the question has become, can it really be any worse? In Manning’s final 10 games, he completed 59 percent of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Mark Sanchez looks to be a near-lock to be the starter for the Broncos in week 1, and in his last 10 starts, Sanchez has completed 64 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Additionally, Sanchez will have a much better supporting cast in Denver with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders compared with Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor in Philadelphia. Both Thomas and Sanders are a year older, but I expect to see similar numbers for them in 2016 that they had in 2015 with the aging Manning.

For Broncos fans, the question becomes, if Sanchez starts the season, how long will it last? Often times, quarterback transitions are made during the bye week. Determining when 2016 1st-round pick Paxton Lynch will enter the lineup will have a lot to do with the record of the Broncos. The Broncos are in a rare situation as Super Bowl Champions who expect to continue to compete, but the quarterback position short and long term is still a question mark. If the Broncos aren’t in the playoff hunt, after their week 11 bye would be the perfect time to bring in the rookie quarterback to get some late season experience. If the Broncos remain in the hunt the entire season, it will be a much more difficult decision and if Sanchez’s play proves competent and the Broncos are winning games, this will likely be a redshirt rookie season for Lynch. In the event that Lynch is inserted into the lineup, the offense as a whole will likely see some growing pains, resulting in inconsistent fantasy scoring from Thomas, Sanders as well as C.J. Anderson.

Oakland Raiders

Will the offense take the next step?

The Oakland Raiders went from three wins in 2014 to 7 wins in 2015. One of the biggest reasons for the four-win improvement is the improved play of Derek Carr. Carr struggled in his rookie season, completing only 58.1 percent of his passes for 3,270 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

In the 2015 offseason, the Raiders added Amari Cooper with the fourth-overall pick in the NFL draft and they signed veteran Michael Crabtree to help give the young quarterback the weapons he needs to succeed. The additions at wide receiver were huge for Carr’s development as he improved in nearly every statistical category, completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 3,987 passing yards with 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Cooper quickly became Carr’s favorite weapon in 2015, and his development will be a big part of the development of the entire Raiders offense. Cooper had 10 drops in his rookie season, he was sure-handed during his college years at Alabama, so I expect to see that number drop in his sophomore season, helping make the Raiders one of the most exciting young offenses in the NFL. From an NFL perspective, the AFC West is certainly up for grabs with the Broncos having question marks at quarterback. If the Raiders have continued improvement like they had from 2014 to 2015, they could be a 10+ playoff-bound team.

San Diego Chargers

Will Melvin Gordon rebound in year 2 in the NFL?

From the diary of a Melvin Gordon truther, I need to know: Will the Chargers 2015 first-round pick will live up to to his pre-draft expectations in 2016? Melvin Gordon was not put in a position to succeed in 2015, running behind the worst offensive line in the NFL per Pro Football Focus, however, the more advanced stats show that Gordon may not have been as bad as we thought in 2015. Gordon was known for his elusiveness in college, and in his rookie season, he forced a missed tackle every five rushing attempts compared to his teammate Danny Woodhead, who forced a missed tackle once every 49 rushing attempts (Hat tip to @Pat_Thorman). The Chargers did make some additions on the offensive line as well as players getting healthy who were hurt, which should make for improved offensive line, which should result in better play from Gordon. One of the biggest question marks for him as a prospect was his ability as a pass catcher. Many fantasy analysts questioned whether Gordon would have limited PPR upside because he only caught 22 passes in three college seasons. In my opinion, Gordon answered those questions in his rookie season, catching 33 passes on 37 targets, and that was in an offense where Woodhead also caught 80 passes. While the presence of Woodhead may prevent Gordon from being a 50+ catch back in the short term, but he certainly has that type of upside when Woodhead is no longer with the Chargers. I think the improvement along the offensive line and the receiving acumen that Gordon showed in year one will be the keys to a fantasy rebound for Gordon in second NFL season.

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