32 Teams, 32 Questions: NFC South

Jacob Feldman

It is training camp time, which means we get to see all 32 teams doing something at least relatively meaningful. It also means there are only a few weeks left until the rosters and depth charts are set for the start of the season. We are going to take a little trip around the league and take a look at all 32 teams and address one of the biggest questions about each team that you need to be thinking about. After all, in terms of dynasty leagues if you aren’t thinking about these things you’re already behind.

Let’s take a look at the NFC South, a division which has been known for some pretty special offenses over the years as well as some absolutely terrible defenses. It has also been a division where there is very seldom a back to back champion, meaning everyone is in the hunt each and every year.

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Atlanta Falcons

Does Julio Jones finally have some help again?

I’m not sure everyone realizes just how much of a one-man show Julio Jones has become. Last year Matt Ryan had 4,591 passing yards, and 40.7 percent of them (1,871 yards) went to Julio. That’s a staggering amount and is undoubtedly one of if not the top percentages for any receiver in the league last year. To make things even worse, if we only look at passing yardage to the wide receiver position, because the running backs and tight ends were a big part of the game plan last year, Julio accounts for 61.2 percent of the wide receiver yardage. The fact that he was able to post those kinds of numbers, when defenses knew he was the only threat on the outside, speaks volumes about his remarkable talent. It also drives home the point that the Falcons really, really need to get him some help.

Last year, the second leading receiver on the Falcons was a 30-year-old Jacob Tamme with only 657 yards. Granted, that is a decent total for Tamme, but it is a terrible total for the second leading receiver on an NFL team. In an attempt to fix that issue, the Falcons went out and spent fairly big money on Mohamed Sanu. At an average of just over $6 million per season, Sanu is definitely being paid like a top end complementary receiver. The question is if he can step up, take some of the heat off of Jones and help give the Falcons their first duo of 1,000 yard receivers since 2012.

On the plus side of the ledger, the opportunity is definitely there. Sanu has been handed the starting role because there really isn’t anyone else there. You know he will never face a double team or any defensive focus with Julio on the other side of the field, so all he needs to do is beat the one man guarding him. He has a big frame which he can use to box out defenders and make contested catches. He struggled with drops earlier in his career, but he has shown improved hands recently.

On the other side you need to wonder about his talent level. I wouldn’t classify Sanu as a big play guy, not that he needs to be with Jones opposite him but it just isn’t his game. Sanu is a true possession receiver who isn’t going to give you massive weeks. In fact, he only has two 100-yard games in his four-year career. He hasn’t shown to be anything close to explosive, most often going down shortly after the catch because he failed to create much separation from the defender.

Overall, I do see Sanu as an upgrade from last year, but I don’t think he is really the answer Falcons fans were hoping to receive. He’s a slightly above average talent in my book and was vastly overpaid in a poor free agent market. I think he’s little more than a band-aid for the problem. He’ll likely break his career highs of 56 receptions, 790 yards and five touchdowns, but I think that will be more based upon the opportunity than his talent. He makes for an interesting short term buy in dynasty leagues for a contending team because his price tag is pretty good for what he will likely produce. Just don’t expect him to be a long term asset. The Falcons are likely to realize fairly quickly that Sanu isn’t the wingman Jones deserves.

Carolina Panthers

What can we expect from Kelvin Benjamin this season?

Benjamin was a part of the best rookie season ever for a draft class. He was one of three rookies from the 2014 draft class to top 1,000 yards during their rookie year. When you consider it was something which had only occurred a handful of times before that year, it is an amazing collective accomplishment. Benjamin’s 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns led all receivers on the team by a pretty good margin. Then again, that is to be expected when the other receivers on the team are Jerricho Cotchery and Corey Brown.

The plan was the pair Benjamin up with 2015 draft pick Devin Funchess and have a duo of very big bodies, in addition to all pro Greg Olsen, which Cam Newton can target. That dream barely made it through the offseason before Benjamin went down with an ACL tear in his knee. Almost a full year removed from the ACL tear, reports have been fairly optimistic. It seems to have healed fairly well, but there have also been reports that his conditioning needs quite a bit of work at this point in time as well. Time will tell. There are an awful lot of Panther fans hoping he is the missing part of their offense to get them back to the Super Bowl and potentially have a different outcome this time.

From a fantasy perspective, I think we are expecting too much from Benjamin. He’s a phenomenal weapon in the red zone, but he’s really their number two weapon in the passing game behind Olsen. He’s also coming off an ACL tear as I mentioned above. What players like Adrian Peterson have done is not the norm, even though people now seem to expect it to be. An awful lot of players still struggle their first year back from an ACL, especially early in the year.

My biggest concern is the opportunity which helped make Benjamin’s rookie season is now gone. In my opinion, a lot of Benjamin’s success was due to a lack of other options in the passing game outside of Olsen. The team has added Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn since Benjamin last saw the field as a rookie. He had 146 targets that season, which is nearly double the next closest receiver. Between the two new additions and Newton seeming to be more comfortable spreading the ball around, I don’t think Benjamin will see the same volume of targets this season. He’s still a great play for touchdowns, but I think those expecting a huge leap forward this season from his rookie season are going to be disappointed. He’s a being overvalued right now.

New Orleans Saints

Is this the beginning of the end of the historically great passing offense?

When you think about historic passing offenses, most people don’t really think about the Saints during the Drew Brees era, but I challenge you to find a passing offense which was more productive over a similar span of time. Pull up a list of the 5,000 yard passing seasons and you’ll see eight seasons on the list, four of them have Brees’ name next to them. In fact, he is the only name on the list more than once, and he was within 130 yards for two other seasons. That tells you something. The question we need to start asking ourselves is if the end is near? This is an especially important question for those with Brandin Cooks as one of their top players.

At the time of writing this article, Brees appears to be heading into the 2016 season without a contract extension. He has already stated he will not work out a contract during the season, which means things could be put on hold until after this season, which will be when Brees turns 38-years-old. Unless you believe Brees’ success is purely a result of the great Sean Payton system, we need to realize when Brees goes New Orleans is in a lot of trouble. I fully expected him to retire as a Saint, but you never know in today’s NFL. Could this really be it for Brees?

The good news is there hasn’t been any decline in Brees’ play over the last few years. In fact, looking at his last three seasons there doesn’t seem to be much of any drop off. He threw the ball about 20-30 times less this past season, which accounts for it being slightly lower in terms of yardage and in touchdowns, but the drop off was negligible. His completion rate was still over 68 percent and his 7.8 yards per attempt was right in line with the last several years. His QBR and quarterback rating have also been very consistent, so there doesn’t seem to be any decline so far.

Unfortunately for Brees and all of his fans, myself included, the decline of the great quarterbacks normally isn’t a gradual thing. Instead they more often experience something similar to what Peyton Manning experienced. He went from a 66 percent completion rate and a 2.6:1 touchdown to interception ratio to under 60 percent completion and 0.5:1 touchdown to interception ratio. We see similar, though not quite as drastic declines for greats like Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Brett Favre and others. The great quarterbacks play until they suddenly can’t. The drop off seems to occur right around the age Brees is currently, which is concerning, and I think it is why the Saints have hesitated to give him an extension.

I don’t know when the last season for Brees will be, but I have this sinking feeling that it is close. He’s one of my favorite players in the league, but I think it is time to cut ties if you get a solid offer. He’s likely to be great again this season, and maybe even for one or two more after that, which makes him perfect for a contender. However, it is time to start getting concerned about the future of the young Saints like Cooks. The end of the Brees era is near and who will be trying to fill those shoes?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Is the Tampa Bay offense finally trending up?

As a lifelong Bears fan, I remember the days of the NFC Central division, the black and blue division as we called it. It of course featured the current NFC North teams.. and Tampa Bay. Tampa never really fit in to the division in any way from location to play style. They eventually started to improve towards the end, producing their first winning season in fifteen years when they went 10-6 in 1997. A few years later they peaked when they won the Super Bowl in 2002. Since that point it has largely been downhill. In fact, they have been last in their division with a losing record in six of the last seven seasons. Is there finally a reason for some optimism though?

With Jameis Winston at quarterback, Doug Martin locked up long term at running back, and Mike Evans leading the receiver group, it seems like the Bucs finally have the start of what could be a very good offensive unit. For a rookie, Winston had a very nice season. He threw more touchdowns than interceptions, was in the top half of the league in yards per attempt, and contributed to the running game. It would have been nice to see his completion rate, but you can’t get everything you want. Martin had a resurgence last season, putting together his best season since his rookie year. I’m a little concerned about how often he disappeared in some games and the fact that it just happened to be contract year for him. None the less, he seems locked in for years to come. In my opinion, the real gem is Evans. He didn’t get into the end zone much last season, but he improved upon a great rookie season and proved he can be a No. 1 receiver in the NFL.

Unfortunately, an offensive has 11 players on the field, not three. The Bucs definitely have a good start, but they need a whole lot more before they can become a good offensive unit. A 33-year-old Vincent Jackson can’t be the second target in the passing game, but he currently is. The Bucs desperately need someone to step up and help take some of the pressure off of Evans. Charles Sims is a great pass catcher out of the backfield, but that is different from having an every down pass catcher. The Bucs were hoping Austin Seferian-Jenkins could be that guy, but he’s struggled through two seasons, both with injuries and performance. There has been some hype about Cameron Brate this offseason, but I’m a little skeptical of his fantasy value. In all likelihood, the Bucs will need to add some more pieces to their roster before they can be a great offense, but the one player I do have my eye on is Kenny Bell. He’s had a rough start to his career, but the second-year player has the skill set to play opposite Evans if he can ever get things going.

Overall, I think the Bucs have a good solid core, but they are still a few years out from truly being relevant. They need to add a few more pieces to their roster if they are going to take their game to the next level.

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jacob feldman