32 Teams, 32 IDP Questions: AFC West

Mo Brewington

Many believe the balance of power is about to shift in the AFC West. Where talk of the division once centered around it’s quarterbacks and offensive skill players, the pendulum has swung toward the opposite side of the line of scrimmage.

The Super Bowl champion Broncos have endured the typical attrition rate suffered by championship teams. The Chiefs, and Chargers are trying to bolster veteran units with in the confines of the salary cap. While a youthful Raider team is bearing the fruits of organizational continuity and an inexpensive quarterback on his rookie contract.

There are a handful of position battles in the division with significant implications for the IDP community. Today, we will take a look at four of those battles and identify a few prospective values for our IDP capital this season.

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Denver Broncos

Their secondary remains intact, as does their outside linebacking corps. Two free agent acquisitions, Vance Walker and Jared Crick, will look to fill the void left by Malik Jackson’s departure to the Jaguars. The big unknown heading into training camp is:

Who will replace the production of Danny Trevathan?

The short answer is Brandon Marshall. While Trevathan’s 113 total stops led the team in in 2015, Marshall’s total of 103 was only a few steps behind, despite playing the entire season with a broken screw in his foot. Knowing removal of the foreign object would cost him eight weeks of playing time, the linebacker opted to play through the soreness. His reward was a world championship. Marshall will be the chief beneficiary of Trevathan’s new zip code.

The second inside linebacker job in Wade Phillips 3-4 defense is up for grabs, with young veterans Todd Davis and Corey Nelson entering camp fighting for the position. An undrafted free agent, in his third NFL season, Davis made two starts for the Broncs in 2015, with nine of his 11 solo tackles on the year coming in those two games. Coach Wade Phillips has praised the journeyman’s intensity, likening it to that of Chris Speilman, a former Pro-Bowler under Phillip’s during his coaching stop in Buffalo in the late 90’s. The job is Davis’ to lose as training camp opens.

Next in line is Nelson, whom the Broncos selected in the final round of the 2014 draft. Nelson logged 13 solo tackles as a special teamer in 2015. At 6-foot-1, 226 pounds, his game is predicated on quickness. While a role as a situational linebacker could arise, Denver is well stocked with safeties, namely T.J. Ward, and Darien Stewart, who are more than capable of stepping into the box. Still, the fact Nelson has earned enough trust from the staff to see action in all 32 games played since his arrival, makes him a favorite for the first reserve role.

The final contestants, Zaire Anderson and Frank Shannon, are competing for the fourth and likely final inside linebacker spot on the Broncos 53-man roster. A weak side linebacker at Nebraska, Anderson often found himself on the sideline as the Huskers went to their dime package, an indication of a deficiency in coverage skills, but not an outright indictment. As a second-year player who showed well throughout camp and the preseason in 2015, Anderson has a decided edge over the rookie, Shannon. Gary Kubiak has pointed toward Anderson’s leadership and tackling ability as his strongest traits.

Questions surround Shannon’s character since being suspended the entire 2014 season at Oklahoma for the alleged assault of a female. He was never convicted of the crime. Often, teams choose to overlook these violations in the professional ranks. For dynasty purposes, we should not. When acquiring talent, we need to weigh the likelihood of a player missing time due to off-field problems against their price and what they might reasonably contribute to our roster. When compared to Anderson, who’s leadership skills have been highlighted above, a sharp contrast is drawn, which tips the scales in Zaire’s favor.

We’ll watch this one unfold throughout camp, but it appears Davis is headed toward opening day as Marshall’s running mate at inside linebacker for the Broncos. Pay attention to the four preseason contest for an accurate gauge on the battle for the reserve roll between Nelson and Anderson.

Kansas City Chiefs

Can Dee Ford deliver in the absence of Justin Houston?

With their best defender in danger of missing significant time to start the season, the Chiefs are looking for someone to provide the pass rush their defense so desperately needs. Justin Houston, who’s 40.5 sacks in the last three seasons are third most in the league over that span, is recovering from February ACL surgery. With a timetable of six to 12 months for his return, Houston could possibly start the year on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) List, a designation that guarantees he won’t suit up for the first six games of the year at a minimum. Even then, there is the matter of him regaining his previous form, which could take the remainder of the season. Kansas City will have to find another source for pass rush production in 2016.

The only veteran with the pedigree to fill in for Houston is third-year linebacker, Dee Ford. Both Houston, and 11 year veteran Tamba Hali have spent the spring practice season on the sidelines. This has allowed Ford more reps, while still being able to lean on the elder linebackers for guidance. As a first-round pick out of Auburn, Ford was able to get by on athleticism alone in the SEC. His transition to the pros has been slowed by flawed technique. Through two seasons, he has just 5.5 sacks, and 30 total tackles.

The only other serious competitor for the job is Frank Zombo, a veteran with a more technically sound game than Ford’s, but lacking the ability to be a game changer on a weekly basis. Should Ford fail to deliver in the mental department, or as a run stopper, it’s possible Zombo eats into his playing time, a scenario which nullifies any value Ford could have to your team, and giving Zombo only minimal appeal as an injury or bye week fill-in.

San Diego Chargers

Could Manti Te’o be replaced as the Bolts’ starting inside linebacker this season?

San Diego became a more attractive place to look for linebacker production this off-season with the additions of J, and Brandon Mebane. Second-year stud Denzel Perryman did the Chargers a favor by replacing the underachieving Donald Butler in the starting lineup. The other half of their 3-4 inside linebacking duo has been manned for three seasons by Manti Te’o.

Entering his fourth year in the league, Te’o has had trouble staying healthy, missing 13 of a possible 48 games to date. His fantasy output from 2015 was good for LB44, despite playing in just 12 contests. The 7.7 points per game he averaged last year was good for 33rd best in the league among linebackers. These numbers, while not abysmal, are far from ideal considering Te’o was on the field more than all Charger linebackers, with the exception of Melvin Ingram.

This year has the feel of a “make or break” season for Te’o. Availability is the best ability. And when it comes to professional sports, giving your understudies a chance to prove their skills can have disastrous consequences for your own career. While San Diego jettisoned most of the experienced veterans behind Perryman, and Te’o from the roster, there remains a group of hungry young players with size and talent waiting for their chance to shine.

Foremost among this group is Joshua Perry, a rookie the Bolts were willing to commit a fourth-round pick to at this year’s draft. As a senior at Ohio State, Perry accumulated accolades for his play on the field, and character off of it. He averaged 115 tackles during his final two seasons as a Buckeye. His form and ability to wrap up the ball carrier are where you want them to be , but he’s not an impact tackler. His ability to see run plays develop and attack the gaps leaves a little to be desired, as well. We have seen with many middle linebackers over the years, how a mastery of the mental side of the game can cover up deficiencies in athleticism. Perry has a ways to go in this department.

Another factor to consider when examining the possibility of the Chargers replacing Te’o is the loss of Eric Weddle in free agency. A five-time All-Pro, Weddle’s presence in the middle of the defense made him a top dynasty safety. Without him , the team will call upon Jahleel Addae, who was recently given an extension this spring, and Dwight Lowery, a nine-year vet who is little more than a place holder while the team looks for their next mainstay at safety. In the absence of Weddle, reports say Te’o has become one of the more vocal leaders on the defense. A positive sign, but completely irrelevant if he under-performs, or worse, can’t stay healthy.

With the addition of Mebane playing in front of Perryman and Te’o, the Bolts have 2/3rds of the defense’s backbone in place. It is more likely they allow Te’o to start, seeing if the four year veteran can put a solid season together, than look to replace him before the season begins. Dynasty owners should keep Perry’s name in their Rolodex, as his chance to start siphoning off snaps, and work his way into the starting line-up, and thus, our weekly IDP discussions, could be just around the corner.

Oakland Raiders

Does Karl Joseph fit the new mold of Safety/Linebacker Hybrids?

The loss of Charles Woodson will be felt on this young Raider defense looking to join the league’s elite units. For 2016, the Raiders have revamped both safety positions, signing free agent Reggie Nelson to take over for Woodson at free safety, and drafting Karl Joseph out of West Virginia to man the strong side.

In Joseph, the Raiders have a player with all of the traits to be a great NFL safety. Dynasty owners searching for the next Deone Buccannon, may look to evaluate Joseph through hybrid lenses. Keep in mind however, that it is not just a matter of Joseph being capable of fulfilling this role, but a matter of him being utilized by the coaching staff in such a manner.

At 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, Joseph is nearly identical in stature to Buccannon. The rookie has good awareness, and reacts quickly in coverage. Despite a tendency to lead with his helmet, Joseph delivers the type of hits that can result in dropped passes and forced fumbles, while still managing to wrap up the ball carrier. He has the potential to be a one of the most well rounded safeties to enter the league in recent years.

The question of whether Joseph is the next great S/LB hybrid is less about his ability, and more about how he’ll be deployed. Raiders Defensive Coordinator, Ken Norton Jr., honed his skills under Pete Carroll from 2004, as a defensive assistant at USC, through the time of his hire in Oakland, 18 months ago. In concert with Head Coach Jack Del Rio, himself a former defensive coordinator with the Panthers and Broncos, they have crafted a multiple front scheme which morphs between 4-3 and 3-4 looks.

In Cover 1 or Cover 3, with Nelson in the single high safety role, Joseph could find himself inside the box, within striking range of a greater number of plays from scrimmage. These “single high” looks became a staple of those Seattle teams with whom Norton cut his coaching teeth.

The Raiders will certainly switch up which of their safeties is the “centerfielder” over the course of games, but relying on the experience of  Nelson to man the last line of defense and interpret what is happening in front of him, offers the team a greater sense of security than counting on a rookie, fresh out of the womb, to make those back end calls. When the team moves into the nickel or dime, is when Joseph’s role could begin to mirror that of Buccannon’s with the Cardinals.

In these formations, outside linebackers Bruce Irvin and Khalil Mack will become defensive ends, offering Norton the option to play Joseph in what would traditionally be the role of a linebacker. These calls will be completely match-up dependent, but against teams who can run effectively out of 10, and 11 personnel, (10= 1 running back/4 wide outs…11=1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide outs), Joseph offers a versatility to defend both run and pass that the Raiders won’t get with middle linebacker Ben Heeney in the nickel package. Though it will take some time for rookie to adapt to the NFL game, by next season he should be running without any training wheels. IDP owners should jump at the opportunity to acquire Karl Joseph in all formats.

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mo brewington
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